In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about the so-called Sahm Rule – a usually quite reliable recession indicator in the US that was triggered in August for the first time since the coronavirus crisis. There is no corresponding indicator for Europe so far, which raises the question: What is the risk of recession with regard to the European labor market?
ARTICLES IN THE TOPIC “Markets”
Eastern Europe: Economies expected to outperform Euro Area
Weakening growth in the eurozone has been an issue on the markets for some time now. In the Central and Eastern European countries, however, this is largely a non-issue. According to forecasts, the region is also likely to grow faster than the eurozone this year. Private consumption in particular has recently proved to be a growth driver. However, the tense situation in German industry is causing concern.
The Sahm Rule: What is behind the recession indicator?
The Sahm Rule, an important recession indicator in the US, was triggered at the beginning of August – causing uncertainty on the markets. We explain what is behind the indicator and why everything could be different this time.
Japan: Back to Normality
The Japanese stock market quickly recovered from the slide at the beginning of the month. However, attention remains focused on the Japanese central bank after it announced that it would hold off on further interest rate hikes for the time being. However, the Bank of Japan’s direction of travel seems clear: away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years.
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Economic outlook: soft landing with risks attached
On the stock markets, the focus is shifting back to the downside risks. Nevertheless, there are still hopes that inflation will gradually fall and that there will be no recession. But how realistic are the hopes for this “soft landing” of the economy and how can investors position themselves in the current environment?
Losses on the stock markets: an overview of the reasons and consequences
There was little to cheer about on the stock markets at the start of the week: there were significant price losses in both Europe and the USA and the Japanese Nikkei-225 recorded one of the biggest daily losses in its history. What were the reasons for Monday’s sharp sell-off, what impact could the latest events have on the markets and what will happen with the increasingly weak economy?
Will the gold rally continue?
The price of gold has recently climbed from one high to the next. The rally seems almost puzzling due to a number of negative factors in the first half of the year. However, two reasons in particular provided plenty of tailwind. Can the rally go even further?
The new age of protectionism
The path towards a clearly fragmented global economy is continuing. Recently, the increase in tariffs on Chinese electric cars in the USA and the European Union has been particularly noticeable. What impact is the rise of protectionism having on the global economy?
After Biden’s withdrawal: What plans does Kamala Harris have for the economy?
The withdrawal of incumbent US President Joe Biden from the presidential race is bringing new momentum to the election campaign. Kamala Harris, currently Vice President under Biden, is now seen as the likely Democratic candidate. What policies could Harris stand for and what plans could she have for the US economy?