The global economy and the Eurozone continue to grow strongly. Furthermore, the Eurozone is currently experiencing new impulses for greater European integration through the new government in France and the coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD in Germany. On the other hand the outcome of the elections in Italy brought a politically instable result. The ECB meeting beginning of March did not include significant news.
The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.
Fears of rising interest rates are back. Was the recent 9% correction in global equities just a market blip, amplified by technical factors related to the trading of volatility products? Or something more serious – a regime shift signalling the end of the equity bull market as many have argued?
The economic environment for the capital markets is subject to change as we speak. About one and a half years ago, the global economy shifted from recovery to boom, which was very advantageous for the markets. The features were strong, broadly based economic growth, low inflation, very supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and limited price fluctuations on the markets. We have now started leaving this best of all worlds (“Goldilocks scenario”) in more and more categories.
The 4th BBVA Latin American Local Markets Conference in London gave me the chance to speak in detail with some local Latin American representatives. In the following, I would like to share some of the insights I gained from these conversations and the narratives that may affect 2018.
There are many factors that may affect inflation. Also, the weights of certain factors may vary across countries. Take the development of the exchange rate, for example.
The entire Bitcoin network already requires more energy than Peru or Hong Kong, or almost half of Austria’s power supply. Such a development is clearly at odds with achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, i.e. to curb global warming to below 2 degrees.
Equity indices have undergone a global correction in the past days. The Dow Jones index has shed more than 10% from its January high. What is the macro-economic reason for the correction?
In the past two days, the stock exchanges, spearheaded by the New York Stock Exchange, have shed the entire previous gains of 2018. Even last week, inflation worries had started to weigh on the markets. But the recent reaction was extraordinarily strong, with experts likening it to the excellent employment report in the US.
At the beginning of 2018, economic indicators are confirming the recovery scenario. Above all, the yields of government bonds are on the rise. Why is that the case, and what does it mean for the financial market as a whole?