When the economy is well, people are well. But just how well is the economy going to be in the coming years? Some economists believe the idea that we will be entering a secular stagnation – or have already entered it – to be a realistic scenario. What does that mean?
Japan officially entered a new era on Wednesday: As was expected, Japan’s new head of government Yoshihide Suga was elected Prime Minister by the majority of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), succeeding Shinzo Abe.
The scenario of a partial recovery of the global economy is supported by the latest data from retail trade (retail sales) and industry (industrial production). The recovery in the service sector and the labor market lags behind this development.
Researchers from Moscow-based Gamaleya institute, an offshoot of the Russian Ministry of Health, published detailed phase 1/2 results of their COVID-19 vaccine in the Lancet. If true (remember that we are talking about Russia), these results imply that their vaccine is both effective and has a tolerable safety profile which would make it a strong contender in the international race to defeat COVID-19.
The US elections in November are not only important from a geopolitical perspective. The race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the presidency also influences events on the financial markets.
Since the start of the current pandemic researchers and policymakers have worried about possible mutations of SARS-CoV-2. A recent paper based on over 18 500 virus genome samples collected thus far concludes that these worries are unfounded.
The stock exchanges have gone through a rollercoaster ride of shedding 25% in value in March before rebounding sharply and even setting new highs, for example in the USA. In view of the difficult situation due to the corona virus and the resulting tense economic situation, many investors have asked themselves whether it might still pay off to buy after recent share price increases.
Two developments stand out on the markets. Firstly, the inflation rate priced into bond yields has not risen lately. Secondly, the US dollar is once again under pressure (DXY) against a basket of established currencies. The yield radar bond market provides an indication.