In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about the so-called Sahm Rule – a usually quite reliable recession indicator in the US that was triggered in August for the first time since the coronavirus crisis. There is no corresponding indicator for Europe so far, which raises the question: What is the risk of recession with regard to the European labor market?
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Eastern Europe: Economies expected to outperform Euro Area
Weakening growth in the eurozone has been an issue on the markets for some time now. In the Central and Eastern European countries, however, this is largely a non-issue. According to forecasts, the region is also likely to grow faster than the eurozone this year. Private consumption in particular has recently proved to be a growth driver. However, the tense situation in German industry is causing concern.
The Sahm Rule: What is behind the recession indicator?
The Sahm Rule, an important recession indicator in the US, was triggered at the beginning of August – causing uncertainty on the markets. We explain what is behind the indicator and why everything could be different this time.
Japan: Back to Normality
The Japanese stock market quickly recovered from the slide at the beginning of the month. However, attention remains focused on the Japanese central bank after it announced that it would hold off on further interest rate hikes for the time being. However, the Bank of Japan’s direction of travel seems clear: away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years.
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Investment View | August 2024
What’s happening on the markets? In our Investment View, the experts of our Investment Division regularly provide insights of current market events and their opinion on the various asset classes.
Know-How
Decision to invest taken – what happens next?
As an investor, you will come across several parties or institutions in the fund selection and securities account opening process.
Markets
Eastern Europe: Economies expected to outperform Euro Area
Weakening growth in the eurozone has been an issue on the markets for some time now. In the Central and Eastern European countries, however, this is largely a non-issue. According to forecasts, the region is also likely to grow faster than the eurozone this year. Private consumption in particular has recently proved to be a growth driver. However, the tense situation in German industry is causing concern.
Sustainability
Microfinance: A journey through emerging Kenya
Kenya is one of the largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the most heavily weighted country on the African continent in the ERSTE RESPONSIBLE MICROFINANCE fund. Fund manager Martin Cech therefore recently visited the country and a number of companies and microcredit borrowers.
Equities
Where is the German housing market heading?
Despite higher inflation and interest rates, demand for housing in Germany is expected to remain robust.
Bonds
Where is the German housing market heading?
Despite higher inflation and interest rates, demand for housing in Germany is expected to remain robust.