Erste Asset Management

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Interest rate cuts and economic growth – a favourable environment for the markets
Interest rate cuts and economic growth – a favourable environment for the markets

Interest rate cuts and economic growth – a favourable environment for the markets

Even though the ECB recently left its key interest rate unchanged, central banks are increasingly signaling an inclination to cut interest rates for the first time. At the same time, the indicators point to good economic growth at a global level. These are positive signals for the stock markets.

Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
(c) unsplash

Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024

After the price rally at the end of last year, the markets started 2024 with price losses. The ongoing positive correlation between bonds and equities is striking. Both asset classes have fallen equally recently, which makes diversification in a portfolio more difficult. But the year has only just begun. We therefore take a look at 10 key topics for 2024 that could be helpful when putting together a portfolio.

Encouraging fall in inflation
Encouraging fall in inflation
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Encouraging fall in inflation

Since the beginning of November the prices of both risky security classes such as equities and credit-safe government bonds have been on the rise. The market appears to be increasingly pricing in a so-called “soft” landing for the economy. The probability of this actually increased over the course of the year. However, the economic data published in recent weeks and months does not contradict the “hard” landing scenario.

Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment
Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment
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Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment

The financial environment has become slightly more relaxed since the beginning of November. This fact is manifesting itself on the market in the form of falling yields and rising share prices. This week, two indicators relating to the US economy in particular could provide clues as to the sustainability of this trend since the beginning of the month: retail sales and consumer prices.

How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
(c) pexels.com

How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?

In line with the surprisingly strong economic indicators in the US, government bond yields have risen significantly in recent months. This is putting pressure on the prices of many classes of securities and intensifying discussions about how restrictive interest rate policy really is. Could the higher level of yields make the central bank’s job easier in the form of further interest rate hikes?

Dollar exchange rate, oil price, and interest rates burdening the markets
Dollar exchange rate, oil price, and interest rates burdening the markets
(c) unsplash

Dollar exchange rate, oil price, and interest rates burdening the markets

The stock markets have recently come under pressure due to several factors. Both the higher dollar exchange rate and the higher oil prices and yields on the bond market are weighing on prices. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer assesses the current situation in his blog article.