More and more indicators are pointing to good global growth. Even regions and sectors that had recently weakened are likely to return to growth. The soft landing after the sharp rise in inflation and the turnaround in interest rates could succeed. The decline in inflation is pausing at the same time, as yesterday’s US inflation data shows.
Article on tag "ECB"
Interest rate cuts and economic growth – a favourable environment for the markets
Even though the ECB recently left its key interest rate unchanged, central banks are increasingly signaling an inclination to cut interest rates for the first time. At the same time, the indicators point to good economic growth at a global level. These are positive signals for the stock markets.
Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
After the price rally at the end of last year, the markets started 2024 with price losses. The ongoing positive correlation between bonds and equities is striking. Both asset classes have fallen equally recently, which makes diversification in a portfolio more difficult. But the year has only just begun. We therefore take a look at 10 key topics for 2024 that could be helpful when putting together a portfolio.
Increasing optimism for a “soft” economic landing
While equities have recently risen, yields on the bond market have weakened. The markets are being supported by increasing hopes of a “soft” landing for the economy. What are the chances of this scenario?
Phillips curve: Is there a risk of structurally higher inflation?
Inflation rose sharply in 2021 due to several supply shocks. Although there is a clear downward trend. However, the supply shocks could also have a structural effect on inflation. A look at the Phillips curve model can shed light on this.
Conditional pause on interest rate hikes
The European Central Bank has raised the key interest rates probably for the last time in this interest rate cycle. But the rising oil price poses a risk that the ECB has only taken a pause.
What are the lasting results of the central bank meeting in Jackson Hole?
At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
How high do key interest rates still climb?
Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the USA raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points last week. However, both central banks signalled that the end of the cycle is near – or may even have already been reached after the recent rate hikes.
Best of Charts: Beach Edition
The stock markets are also usually a little quieter during the summer months. Many market participants take a break due to holidays and the general activity decreases. In any case, a look at some important charts indicates that no nasty surprises are to be expected during the holidays.
Strong first half of the year: What`s next for the stock markets?
The stock markets look back on a strong first half of the year. In addition to the already familiar factors of inflation and key interest rates, the trend topic of artificial intelligence (AI) came into focus. In this interview, fund manager Tamás Menyhárt looks back on the past six months and tells us what has to happen for 2023 to end as happily as the first half of the year did.