The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
Article on tag "ECB"
Fight against inflation: Monetary policy remains restrictive
Central banks remain on a restrictive course and hold out the prospect of further key interest rate hikes. Although there are some signs of a further decline in inflation, it is falling more slowly than expected. You can read where the journey could lead in the blog post.
Interest rate decisions in focus: what will the central banks do?
This week, the markets are eagerly awaiting the upcoming interest rate decisions. The Fed in the USA will make the first move today, Wednesday. For the first time in the current cycle, no increase in the key interest rate is expected. For tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the ECB, on the other hand, the market expects a further rate hike of 25 basis points.
Inflation in Europe likely to have peaked
Inflation data in Europe recently showed a surprisingly significant slowdown. The decline in energy prices in particular had a dampening effect. Read our latest blog post to find out about the current inflation in the individual EU countries.
US labour market: strong employment growth
Surprisingly good figures came from the US labor market in the previous week. Despite the strong growth in employment, however, economic growth has recently been rather meager. Recession risks also remain at an uncomfortably high level.
Banking problems support share prices
Since the banking problems in the US emerged in March, share prices have risen and expectations for future key interest rates have fallen significantly. However, inflation dynamics remain the most important factor for the markets, but unfortunately also one that is difficult to assess.
Robust economy despite recent turbulences
Despite the recent turmoil in the banking sector, both companies and the global economy are currently proving to be extremely robust. Read more about the current market environment in the commentary by Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management at Erste AM.
Positive January on the markets
On the stock markets, the first month of the year was positive. The recent softer tones of the central banks give rise to hopes that interest rate hikes are slowly coming to an end. Read more about the current market assessment in our Investment Update.
Thrilling decisions before Christmas
This week, the financial markets are once again in for an exciting ride: The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve will decide to what extent interest rates will be raised again.
Reduction in the pace of key interest rate increases
More and more central banks are signalling a reduction in the pace at which they are raising key interest rates. However, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains, this does not necessarily mean that central banks are softening their focus on fighting inflation. Rather, a pause in the rate hike cycle would require a change in inflation dynamics.