Gerold Permoser am 22nd February 2018 (c) Fotolia
„If you’re going through hell, keep going!”
Sir Winston Spencer Churchill
The year 2018 had started on such a promising note – is what we all were thinking. But at the beginning of February, the market taught us a lesson. As a result, the discussions at our first Investment Committee of the year at the beginning of February were interesting ones.
Gerold Permoser am 19th February 2018 (c) iStock
There are many factors that may affect inflation. Also, the weights of certain factors may vary across countries. Take the development of the exchange rate, for example.
Gerold Permoser am 02nd February 2018 (c) iStock
Why is the inlfation outlook for 2018 important? In our three part series we explain how inflation works.
Gerold Permoser am 14th December 2017 (c) Fotolia
Earlier this week, we convened the last Investment Committee of 2017. The general risk appetite of the team has not changed vis-à-vis the previous month (from 78.85 percent to 79 percent on our 0 – 100 percent scale). The team continues to see the future optimistically, with a resulting “risk on” stance.
Gerold Permoser am 07th December 2017 (c) Erste Asset Management
2017 is drawing to an end, and the bottom line is positive. The outcome is significantly better than we had expected. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has never expanded more quickly and especially concertedly than in 2017. Also, inflation has surprised on the downside, falling short yet again of the expectations held by central banks and analysts.
Gerold Permoser am 09th November 2017 (c) Fotolia
This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.
Gerold Permoser am 02nd October 2017 (c) Fotolia
Once a month the Investment Committee of Erste Asset Management convenes in order to discuss the medium-term market outlook. We are going to start a new blog, where we will report on what drives our investment professionals and what risks they see.
Gerold Permoser am 12th September 2017 (c) iStock
I have recently read an interesting research report by one of our independent research partners, Gavekal Research. Gavekal Research is based in Hong Kong, and one of its strengths is its deep knowledge of the Asian market. The piece titled “Good Governance, Poor Performance” discusses good corporate governance. This is a central pillar of traditional as well as sustainable investment.
Gerold Permoser am 01st August 2017 (c) iStock
Making sense of it all
I will be upfront about it: to me, the Taylor rule is still a helpful tool to assess the future monetary policy of the US central bank. However, it should not be used as blueprint without thinking it through. Instead, it should be seen as heuristic tool that helps structure one’s analysis.
Gerold Permoser am 27th July 2017 (c) iStock
Taylor Rule – precise formula, vague Inputs
Since 2008, the key-lending rates in the USA seem to have been significantly too low as measured by the Taylor rule. With some economists blaming Alan Greenspan’s loose monetary policy as partially responsible for the financial crisis of 2008, the question is whether we are in for a déjà-vu.