Latest Posts
India and the West – at the crossroads?
India was recently in the spotlight as the venue for the G20 summit. Shortly thereafter, however, the relationship with the major Western states cooled. How will the West’s relationship with India develop and what role will the country play in the future?
The Rise of the Fallen Angels
Rating agencies assess the creditworthiness of companies and thus play an important role in the financial market. They were also in the spotlight at the beginning of the corona pandemic, with many companies being downgraded as a result of the crisis. In the meantime, the pandemic has been overcome and some of the so-called “Fallen Angels” are once again in a much better position with regard to their creditworthiness and rating.
Middle East Conflict continues: worries about expansion to other countries
Roughly two weeks after the surprising terrorist attacks by the radical Islamic Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, on targets in Israel, the military conflict in the country continues unabated. The war in the region also continues to dominate the financial and commodity markets, with global concerns that the conflict could possibly spread to other countries in the Middle East being the main driver of uncertainty.
Artificial Intelligence – Tool or Toy?
There is hardly any getting around artificial intelligence (AI). Are we only at the beginning of an AI hype or has it already peaked? For whom is AI good business at all and what can the new technology actually be used for?
Gold: From means of payment to safe haven
Gold has played an important role in the financial and economic system for centuries. While it initially served as a means of payment, the role of the precious metal increasingly changed over the course of history to become a crisis currency and a store of wealth in uncertain times.
Phillips curve: Is there a risk of structurally higher inflation?
Inflation rose sharply in 2021 due to several supply shocks. Although there is a clear downward trend. However, the supply shocks could also have a structural effect on inflation. A look at the Phillips curve model can shed light on this.
Climate risks: Is climate change that bad?
This year’s September went down as the warmest in measurement history. Especially in our regions, it was a welcome extension of the summer for many. However, the warmer temperatures clearly show us the consequences of climate change. The risks this entails for the economy and companies and how we take these into account in our investment processes is the topic of our new ESGenius Letter.
Climate Score? Oh please, not another ESG factor!
Climate risks are also an important topic for investors. A look at the climate-readiness of companies can minimise potential risk factors.
Biodiversity, climate change, and planetary boundaries
Recent studies have provided insights into the challenges to human prosperity resulting from the climate and biodiversity crises. The main conclusions are that the world is currently not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in time, nor the Climate Change Goals or those on biodiversity.
Erste Group publishes first Climate Report
In the Climate Report, published for the first time this year, Erste Group reports on progress, targets and measures towards a net-zero emissions portfolio by 2050 and net-zero operations by 2030. Climate risks and their impacts are also a topic.
Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?
“Higher for longer” has become the mantra of the powerful central bankers in recent months. Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive longer than originally expected. Regardless of whether the major central banks will follow up with a final interest rate step in autumn, the interest rate peak has probably been reached and “the worst” is behind us.
Parliamentary elections in Poland on Sunday – what comes afterwards?
Tension ahead of the parliamentary election in Poland next Sunday. Will there be a decision on the direction of politics and interest rate cuts?
How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
In line with the surprisingly strong economic indicators in the US, government bond yields have risen significantly in recent months. This is putting pressure on the prices of many classes of securities and intensifying discussions about how restrictive interest rate policy really is. Could the higher level of yields make the central bank’s job easier in the form of further interest rate hikes?
Best of Charts: News from the inflation
Even though inflation has weakened recently, it remains an important topic for private individuals as well as for companies and the markets. What might happen next in terms of inflation and how long will the restrictive monetary policy stay with us? A look at some important financial charts will shed some light on this.
Attack on Israel: Reaction of the markets
The terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas last weekend dominates the international headlines. The markets are reacting to this with price declines, but the extent of the movements has so far been limited.
Megatrends on the equity market
Megatrends are long-term developments that have the potential to decisively change various industries and markets. We explain how investors can participate in these developments.
Biotechnology shares ready to stage a comeback?
In the first half of 2023, growth shares – and as such, also the biotechnology sector – came under pressure as investors were pivoting towards value shares. But the signs are changing. The possible high in interest rates in Europe and the USA could boost biotech shares again, as ERSTE STOCK BIOTEC fund manager Harald Kober explains in an interview.
Inflation continues to fall: Do interest rate hikes now come to an end?
Inflation in the Eurozone is expected to fall further. According to initial estimates, the inflation rate fell more sharply than expected in August. With a view to the next ECB interest rate decision at the end of October, the question now arises: Do interest rate hikes now come to an end?
Environmental equities – a good time to invest?
The sharp rise in interest rates is weighing more heavily on environmental and renewable energy equities than on assets from other sectors. Clemens Klein, fund manager of ERSTE WWF STOCK ENVIRONMENT, explains in an interview why this is the case, why environmental shares remain very attractive, and why this could even be a good time to enter the market.
Dollar exchange rate, oil price, and interest rates burdening the markets
The stock markets have recently come under pressure due to several factors. Both the higher dollar exchange rate and the higher oil prices and yields on the bond market are weighing on prices. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer assesses the current situation in his blog article.
Crude Oil Prices Hit Highest Level in 10 Months
Oil prices have been rising steeply for several weeks. The prices of the most important oil companies have also risen. How can investors profit?
Conditional pause on interest rate hikes
The European Central Bank has raised the key interest rates probably for the last time in this interest rate cycle. But the rising oil price poses a risk that the ECB has only taken a pause.
Where is the German housing market heading?
Despite higher inflation and interest rates, demand for housing in Germany is expected to remain robust.
Pause on interest rate hikes?
Once again it’s all about interest rates this week. Will the ECB take a break this time and leave key interest rates unchanged? There is a lot to be said for it.
Semiconductor Industry Picking up Speed Again: AI Chips Are Booming
After a period of declining sales, the semiconductor industry is expected to get back on track and return to growth in 2024. In particular, chips developed specifically for AI applications are a big driver of the boom.
Bond investments – via yield and spread
How do I choose corporate bonds for my investment? In the current blog article, our expert Johann Griener gives an insight into the currently achievable yields of different credit rating segments. He also explains the spread that can be achieved with corporate bonds.
Hopes for a soft landing
In the past, sharp hikes in key interest rates often triggered a recession. After the latest economic and labour market data, hopes are growing for a soft landing of the economy.
What are the lasting results of the central bank meeting in Jackson Hole?
At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
Sustainable investments: fad or long-term trend?
With a view to the Ukraine war, the multiple regions of crisis or the extreme inflation, one would be forgiven for thinking that sustainability issues were taking a back seat when it came to investing. Gerold Permoser, Chief Investment Officer of Erste Asset Management, claims that this is not the case and that there is a lot of potential for investors. In a recent press talk, he and Heinz Bednar, CEO, presented five key drivers for ESG investments.
Sustainability and biodiversity: the strategy of voestalpine
Climate and environmental protection are central elements of voestalpine’s sustainability strategy. The conservation-minded use of resources such as raw materials and energy along the entire production chain has been firmly anchored within the group for years. Minimising the environmental impact of processes and products also plays a central role, as Stefan Schuster, Group Environmental Management at voestalpine AG, writes in his guest article.
The known unknown: China’s recovery proves more difficult than expected
After getting off to a good start at the outset of the year, economic recovery in China has recently stalled again. Following the lifting of stringent measures to contain the pandemic, the path out of the crisis is proving slower than expected. The flagging domestic demand as well as the ailing real estate sector, have recently put a damper on the world’s second-largest economy.
Compound interest – how to make interest work for you
Interest ensures that the money in the savings account or invested in securities grows. If you have already saved or invested some money, you will receive interest on the interest again. This is compound interest. Compound interest makes your money grow even faster, especially if you don’t touch the money for years and interest rates are high.
Soft landing with risks
Currently, the most important indicators point to average global economic growth and falling inflation. The probability of an immediate recession has decreased significantly. But the risks in the medium term remain. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains which three scenarios are currently emerging in the blog post.
Miracle drug semaglutide: slim by injection
Originally, the Danish company Novo Nordisk wanted to develop Semaglutid as a drug for diabetes 2 patients. However, the appetite-reducing effect of the drug soon became apparent, making semaglutide a miracle cure for obesity. While Novo Nordisk’s share price has risen significantly since then, possible side effects of the drug are now also being examined.
A Tale of Two Companies: Bayer’s Biodiversity Conundrum with Monsanto
In 2018, Bayer acquired the US agrochemical and agricultural chemicals company Monsanto. However, the deal, valued at around USD 64 billion, raised a number of questions. As a result of the merger, Bayer has since found itself responsible for a number of controversial practices of the US company. This is associated not only with sustainability risks but also with a potential risk of billions through various class actions.
Turnaround in the Energy Market: Power Companies Raise Forecasts, Oil Companies’ Profits Drop
The decline in crude oil prices has led to a trend reversal in the energy market this year: while many power companies have recently raised their profit forecasts, the major oil companies suffered massively from the recent drop in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, in the effort to reach climate targets, the trend toward renewable energies continues unabate
Microfinance – Fund Manager Martin Cech on an investor trip to Uzbekistan (Part II)
Microfinance fund manager Martin Cech recently went on an investor trip to Uzbekistan. While he wrote about the banks and microfinance institutions he visited in the first part of his travel report, he describes his impressions of the visits to some borrowers in the second part.
How high do key interest rates still climb?
Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the USA raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points last week. However, both central banks signalled that the end of the cycle is near – or may even have already been reached after the recent rate hikes.
Microfinance – Fund Manager Martin Cech on an investor trip to Uzbekistan (Part I)
Martin Cech, fund manager of ERSTE RESPONSIBLE MICROFINANCE, visited a number of banks and microfinance institutions from the fund’s portfolio during an investor trip to Uzbekistan. He reports on his impressions in the blog post.
Biodiversity – nature’s natural intelligence
The biodiversity crisis goes hand in hand with the loss of ecosystems and thus threatens our everyday life on earth. At the same time, despite all the crisis, we must not lose sight of the miracle of nature. Read more in the lead article of our new ESGenius Letter on the topic of “Biodiversity”.
Biodiversity & nature: how can we integrate them?
At Erste AM, we have been dealing with sustainable investment for many years and have also included biodiversity agendas in our considerations. With our new biodiversity guideline, these issues are to be integrated even more formally into our processes. In addition, we are defining concrete biodiversity goals in the investment process that we want to achieve by 2030.
Biodiversity: interview with ecologist Franz Essl
Franz Essl is an ecologist and a recognised expert on biodiversity and the protection of species diversity. In addition, he was named Scientist of the Year 2022 by the Club of Education and Science Journalists last year. In this interview, he explains what the term biodiversity encompasses and why politics and business must finally act to stop the loss of biodiversity.
Why biodiversity is on your agenda!
The biodiversity of our planet provides the basis for life and the economy. The crisis facing global biodiversity puts quality of life and health at risk, as well as prosperity and economic development. Companies can also act and take measures. After all, biodiversity is on everyone’s agenda.
Biodiversity is the next big thing for investments after climate change
The regulatory environment for biodiversity-related risks is constantly changing. Investments in companies that are well prepared will benefit from this trend. Such companies prove to be robust in dealing with new regulations. Biodiversity risks need to be carefully analysed to protect not only investors’ assets but also Mother Earth.
Fancy a beach holiday in Iceland?
Statistics show that the water temperature of the oceans this year is significantly above the long-term average. This is accompanied by serious consequences for many ecosystems and once again shows the drastic consequences of the climate crisis.
Best of Charts: Beach Edition
The stock markets are also usually a little quieter during the summer months. Many market participants take a break due to holidays and the general activity decreases. In any case, a look at some important charts indicates that no nasty surprises are to be expected during the holidays.
Summer, sun & early election: Spain gets ready for a tight race
The Spanish economy is showing resilience, unlike other countries in the euro area. Now, however, the southern European country is preparing for early elections next weekend, with a tight race looming.
Immaculate disinflation: Is that possible?
Can price stability, i.e. inflation of 2%, be achieved without a recession? The further decline in inflation in the US in June has raised expectations for this favourable scenario. However, a look in the rear-view mirror calls for caution. In the past, a central bank-induced decline in inflation has often been accompanied by a recession.
E-vehicles boom unbroken
The automotive industry is slowly regaining momentum after the pandemic and supply bottlenecks. E-Vehicles are experiencing a real boom. How can you profit as an investor?
Interest rate policy based on the motto “higher and longer”
The global economy is proving to be increasingly robust against a number of headwinds. Due to the uncomfortably high level of inflation, the central banks are likely to stick to their tight interest rate policy for longer than expected.