Latest Posts
US elections 2024: The United States and its debt
In 2024, all eyes on the financial markets are also focused on the US elections in November. After years of expansionary fiscal policy, the debt situation in the United States is also coming back into focus in the run-up to the elections. What are the political and economic implications of the growing budget deficit?
Stock markets review: Hopes for interest rate cuts fuelled significant gains in 2023
The international stock markets closed out 2023 with significant gains. Hopes of abating inflationary pressure and declining interest rates were the main market drivers in Q4, resulting in a strong year for stock exchanges.
Best of Charts: What’s coming, what’s going, what’s staying?
After a weak market year in 2022, 2023 is shaping up to be a pleasing conclusion for investors. Senior Fund Manager Christian Süttinger explains what remains of this year and what could be of particular interest on the markets in 2024 with the help of a few currently important charts.
Norway: Visiting sustainable portfolio companies
Norway has the largest oil reserves in Europe. Nevertheless, the Scandinavian country is considered a pioneer in the use of renewable energies. There are also many companies in the industrial sector that are working on sustainable value creation. Fund manager Markus Gruber visited some sustainable companies from the portfolios of the impact funds ERSTE WWF STOCK ENVIRONMENT and ERSTE GREEN INVEST.
How can I as an investor benefit optimally from structural changes?
Megatrends are long-term developments that not only change the financial markets, but also global economic and social life. As an investor, you can benefit from these trends, especially with a long-term investment horizon, provided you are aware of the risks and opportunities of such a strategy. Find out which structural changes could shape the markets in the future and thus offer opportunities for investors in the blog post.
Argentina: Javier Milei Presidente! Wind of Change?
Following his surprising election victory, the controversial economist and self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei was sworn in as Argentina’s new president. He takes over a country in economic crisis with an annual inflation rate of over 100 percent and a high debt burden.
Capital markets outlook 2024: good opportunities in the US election year
After a difficult market year in 2022, many asset classes performed much better this year. The outlook for the coming year 2024 is also positive – the central banks’ turnaround in interest rates has brought about a return to normality on the bond market and, with the rise in yields, is also opening up new opportunities for investors. At the same time, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in particular pose a challenge. With the improved yield opportunities for bonds, mixed funds are also coming back into focus.
Members of OPEC+ plan to further cut oil production
The OPEC+ oil association was unable to agree on official production cuts at its meeting last Thursday. However, individual member states announced plans for cuts. In a joint statement after the meeting, the more than twenty OPEC+ states also announced that Brazil would join the production alliance at the beginning of next year.
Increasing optimism for a “soft” economic landing
While equities have recently risen, yields on the bond market have weakened. The markets are being supported by increasing hopes of a “soft” landing for the economy. What are the chances of this scenario?
Turkish economy on the road to normalization
After years of numerous hardships, the political and economic signs are changing in Turkey. Growth, which has returned this year despite high inflation and interest rates, is expected to continue in the coming years according to forecasts. International investors have also rediscovered the Turkish stock market.
Surprise result in the Dutch elections
After around a year, the Dutch government under Prime Minister Rutte collapsed in the summer of 2023 due to disagreement over migration policy. It came as a surprise that long-serving Prime Minister Rutte decided not to stand again in the next elections. After more than thirteen years in office, making him the longest-serving prime minister […]
Can China’s economy still be revived after the slowdown?
According to Covid, growth in the Chinese economy is lower than expected and the willingness to invest and consume is declining. The real estate market is also adjusting after the boom years. What short- and long-term measures does the central government intend to take to revive the economy?
More Optimistic Outlook for German Economy among Experts
Stock market professionals are less pessimistic about the prospects for the German economy in the next six months. This is shown by the current economic barometer of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). The government also wants to get the economy moving again with additional relief measures.
FNG Label: 17 top marks for our sustainable funds
Strict criteria, a clear investment process, and many years of expertise pay off, as illustrated by our results in this year’s award of the FNG Label by Forum Nachhaltige Geldanlagen (FNG; Forum for Sustainable Investments). All 17 funds submitted by Erste Asset Management were awarded the quality label for sustainable investment funds, capturing the top rating of three stars.
Sustainability labels: How they can help with investment decisions
Investors are increasingly focusing on environmental, social and governance criteria when it comes to their investments. But how can investors even know which products and funds are truly sustainable? One way of separating the wheat from the chaff is to use sustainability labels.
Encouraging fall in inflation
Since the beginning of November the prices of both risky security classes such as equities and credit-safe government bonds have been on the rise. The market appears to be increasingly pricing in a so-called “soft” landing for the economy. The probability of this actually increased over the course of the year. However, the economic data published in recent weeks and months does not contradict the “hard” landing scenario.
Anti-ESG? Investors positioning themselves
Although environmental and social issues dominated the shareholder resolutions in this year’s voting season, their approval by investors declined. There are many reasons for this. In any case, Erste AM is increasing its support for environmental and social motions.
Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment
The financial environment has become slightly more relaxed since the beginning of November. This fact is manifesting itself on the market in the form of falling yields and rising share prices. This week, two indicators relating to the US economy in particular could provide clues as to the sustainability of this trend since the beginning of the month: retail sales and consumer prices.
Holiday sales: Hopes for record season in the US
The robust labor market and many special offers give hope for another record Christmas season in the USA. The latest market research data also shows that, despite inflation and high interest rates, Americans are once again planning to spend more over the holidays this year.
The new jumper and climate change: climate risks in the textile industry
The booming fashion industry is also confronted with a wide range of challenges due to climate change. These could prompt the entire industry to rethink.
India and the West – at the crossroads?
India was recently in the spotlight as the venue for the G20 summit. Shortly thereafter, however, the relationship with the major Western states cooled. How will the West’s relationship with India develop and what role will the country play in the future?
The Rise of the Fallen Angels
Rating agencies assess the creditworthiness of companies and thus play an important role in the financial market. They were also in the spotlight at the beginning of the corona pandemic, with many companies being downgraded as a result of the crisis. In the meantime, the pandemic has been overcome and some of the so-called “Fallen Angels” are once again in a much better position with regard to their creditworthiness and rating.
Middle East Conflict continues: worries about expansion to other countries
Roughly two weeks after the surprising terrorist attacks by the radical Islamic Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, on targets in Israel, the military conflict in the country continues unabated. The war in the region also continues to dominate the financial and commodity markets, with global concerns that the conflict could possibly spread to other countries in the Middle East being the main driver of uncertainty.
Artificial Intelligence – Tool or Toy?
There is hardly any getting around artificial intelligence (AI). Are we only at the beginning of an AI hype or has it already peaked? For whom is AI good business at all and what can the new technology actually be used for?
Gold: From means of payment to safe haven
Gold has played an important role in the financial and economic system for centuries. While it initially served as a means of payment, the role of the precious metal increasingly changed over the course of history to become a crisis currency and a store of wealth in uncertain times.
Phillips curve: Is there a risk of structurally higher inflation?
Inflation rose sharply in 2021 due to several supply shocks. Although there is a clear downward trend. However, the supply shocks could also have a structural effect on inflation. A look at the Phillips curve model can shed light on this.
Climate risks: Is climate change that bad?
This year’s September went down as the warmest in measurement history. Especially in our regions, it was a welcome extension of the summer for many. However, the warmer temperatures clearly show us the consequences of climate change. The risks this entails for the economy and companies and how we take these into account in our investment processes is the topic of our new ESGenius Letter.
Climate Score? Oh please, not another ESG factor!
Climate risks are also an important topic for investors. A look at the climate-readiness of companies can minimise potential risk factors.
Biodiversity, climate change, and planetary boundaries
Recent studies have provided insights into the challenges to human prosperity resulting from the climate and biodiversity crises. The main conclusions are that the world is currently not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in time, nor the Climate Change Goals or those on biodiversity.
Erste Group publishes first Climate Report
In the Climate Report, published for the first time this year, Erste Group reports on progress, targets and measures towards a net-zero emissions portfolio by 2050 and net-zero operations by 2030. Climate risks and their impacts are also a topic.
Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?
“Higher for longer” has become the mantra of the powerful central bankers in recent months. Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive longer than originally expected. Regardless of whether the major central banks will follow up with a final interest rate step in autumn, the interest rate peak has probably been reached and “the worst” is behind us.
Parliamentary elections in Poland on Sunday – what comes afterwards?
Tension ahead of the parliamentary election in Poland next Sunday. Will there be a decision on the direction of politics and interest rate cuts?
How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
In line with the surprisingly strong economic indicators in the US, government bond yields have risen significantly in recent months. This is putting pressure on the prices of many classes of securities and intensifying discussions about how restrictive interest rate policy really is. Could the higher level of yields make the central bank’s job easier in the form of further interest rate hikes?
Best of Charts: News from the inflation
Even though inflation has weakened recently, it remains an important topic for private individuals as well as for companies and the markets. What might happen next in terms of inflation and how long will the restrictive monetary policy stay with us? A look at some important financial charts will shed some light on this.
Attack on Israel: Reaction of the markets
The terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas last weekend dominates the international headlines. The markets are reacting to this with price declines, but the extent of the movements has so far been limited.
Megatrends on the equity market
Megatrends are long-term developments that have the potential to decisively change various industries and markets. We explain how investors can participate in these developments.
Biotechnology shares ready to stage a comeback?
In the first half of 2023, growth shares – and as such, also the biotechnology sector – came under pressure as investors were pivoting towards value shares. But the signs are changing. The possible high in interest rates in Europe and the USA could boost biotech shares again, as ERSTE STOCK BIOTEC fund manager Harald Kober explains in an interview.
Inflation continues to fall: Do interest rate hikes now come to an end?
Inflation in the Eurozone is expected to fall further. According to initial estimates, the inflation rate fell more sharply than expected in August. With a view to the next ECB interest rate decision at the end of October, the question now arises: Do interest rate hikes now come to an end?
Environmental equities – a good time to invest?
The sharp rise in interest rates is weighing more heavily on environmental and renewable energy equities than on assets from other sectors. Clemens Klein, fund manager of ERSTE WWF STOCK ENVIRONMENT, explains in an interview why this is the case, why environmental shares remain very attractive, and why this could even be a good time to enter the market.
Dollar exchange rate, oil price, and interest rates burdening the markets
The stock markets have recently come under pressure due to several factors. Both the higher dollar exchange rate and the higher oil prices and yields on the bond market are weighing on prices. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer assesses the current situation in his blog article.
Crude Oil Prices Hit Highest Level in 10 Months
Oil prices have been rising steeply for several weeks. The prices of the most important oil companies have also risen. How can investors profit?
Conditional pause on interest rate hikes
The European Central Bank has raised the key interest rates probably for the last time in this interest rate cycle. But the rising oil price poses a risk that the ECB has only taken a pause.
Where is the German housing market heading?
Despite higher inflation and interest rates, demand for housing in Germany is expected to remain robust.
Pause on interest rate hikes?
Once again it’s all about interest rates this week. Will the ECB take a break this time and leave key interest rates unchanged? There is a lot to be said for it.
Semiconductor Industry Picking up Speed Again: AI Chips Are Booming
After a period of declining sales, the semiconductor industry is expected to get back on track and return to growth in 2024. In particular, chips developed specifically for AI applications are a big driver of the boom.
Bond investments – via yield and spread
How do I choose corporate bonds for my investment? In the current blog article, our expert Johann Griener gives an insight into the currently achievable yields of different credit rating segments. He also explains the spread that can be achieved with corporate bonds.
Hopes for a soft landing
In the past, sharp hikes in key interest rates often triggered a recession. After the latest economic and labour market data, hopes are growing for a soft landing of the economy.
What are the lasting results of the central bank meeting in Jackson Hole?
At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
Sustainable investments: fad or long-term trend?
With a view to the Ukraine war, the multiple regions of crisis or the extreme inflation, one would be forgiven for thinking that sustainability issues were taking a back seat when it came to investing. Gerold Permoser, Chief Investment Officer of Erste Asset Management, claims that this is not the case and that there is a lot of potential for investors. In a recent press talk, he and Heinz Bednar, CEO, presented five key drivers for ESG investments.
Sustainability and biodiversity: the strategy of voestalpine
Climate and environmental protection are central elements of voestalpine’s sustainability strategy. The conservation-minded use of resources such as raw materials and energy along the entire production chain has been firmly anchored within the group for years. Minimising the environmental impact of processes and products also plays a central role, as Stefan Schuster, Group Environmental Management at voestalpine AG, writes in his guest article.