Current market information and expert opinions 📈🌍📉
What’s happening on the stock markets? Which sectors and trends are currently popular on the market? Where is the global economy heading, and how are the latest economic developments affecting share prices? Here, our experts and fund managers provide answers to the most pressing questions for investors 👉
The semiconductor industry is considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom. Investors therefore kept a close eye on the sector’s figures for the first three months of 2025. One thing became clear: the expansion of AI infrastructure continues to deliver good results for most chip companies – but the sword of Damocles in the form of impending US tariffs is still hanging over industry giants such as Nvidia & Co. Read more in today’s blog post.
Following the tariffs shock and the accompanying market turmoil, the deferral of said tariffs has led to a surprisingly rapid upturn on the equity markets. That being said, uncertainty remains high, even though the US reporting season has been positive so far. Read more in the market commentary by Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management.
The US government’s extensive tariff plans have been causing volatility on the stock markets since last week. Yesterday’s announcement of a 90-day pause for the new tariffs was met with relief by the markets – even though a further escalation between the US and China is on the horizon. We take a look at the current situation on the financial markets and analyse the possible consequences of an escalation in the trade conflict.
US interest rates are on the rise. It took the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) twelve months, after the initial lift-off in December 2015, to make the second move, but for two reasons the odds of more frequent rate hikes over the next twelve months have increased.
Autor: Christian Gaier, Head of Fixed Income Rates, Sovereigns & FX, Erste AM I would like to share my impressions from my latest investor conference in London that I attended on 16th January 2017. The conference was organized by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), a leading global financial group with a strong franchise in 35 […]
The first weeks of the new year have already picked up from where the trends that started in 2016 and the hypotheses for 2017 left off: higher growth, normalisation of inflation, increased uncertainty with regard to the effects of Trumponomics, and a gradual end of the loose monetary policy.
The year 2016 was full of surprises. It was, for example, the year, when an outsider overcame odds of 5000 to 1 to win the Premier League. It was also the year, when the lyrics of three-minute pop songs were acknowledged to be an art form worth the Literature Nobel. Most importantly, however, politics in the Western hemisphere surprised big time with the vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.
What are the topics that will be relevant this year? In commemoration of the fifth centenary of Martin Luther posting his 95 propositions, we, too, want to suggest ten theses for 2017.
Another year has passed, and it is time to look back. The year on the stock exchanges started out worse than in a long time. After only a few trading days, losses averaged 10%. The fear of economic turbulences originating in China dominated the markets. Meanwhile the currency of choice during a crisis, gold, was […]
The last year 2016 was full of surprises also on the capital markets. Most asset classes could finish the year with a solid plus. We have analyzed, which blogs were the most popular in the last year.
2016 was full of surprises on the stock exchanges. At the beginning of the year, economic concerns in China, the second-biggest economy in the world, triggered drastic losses on the stock exchanges. Over the year, cautious optimism gradually returned: the oil price recovered, and the stock exchanges in the emerging markets rebounded. Brexit and Donald […]
Turkey faced a lot of difficulties in 2016 – both on the economic and political side. On the economic front, the first half of the year was a recovery period where most of the macro data showed improvement, political turmoil had diminished and equity market was pretty much on hold while the market participants had […]
On Sunday 4 December Italy will be holding a referendum on an amendment to the constitution. This is relevant particularly because in case of a rejection, the political uncertainty would increase.
From a technical point of view, the concept of a “year-end rally” is a myth. At least, this is what empirical evidence is telling us. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500, for example, posted a December performance, on average, of 1.12%, making December only the 5th-best month of the year (Fig.1). Over the […]
The market participants are still focused on the implications of Donald Trump’s victory at the US presidential elections. In simple terms, “Trumponomics” are a combination of expansive fiscal policies and restrictive trade policy. An increased budget deficit is supposed to support economic growth, while the curbing of free trade aims at job protection.
The outcome of the US election last week, together with the Brexit-vote in June, was the second major political event this year that shook financial markets. In both cases the outcome was different to what pollsters, the media and investors anticipated. Unsurprisingly, markets – across asset-classes and geographies – reacted strongly and in some cases […]
After a long campaign, the results of the US presidential election are in: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In addition, the Republican Party has retained its majority in Congress. What are the repercussions for the global economy and the financial markets?
Alexandre Dimitrov, Senior Fund Manager for the Russia equity fund of Erste Asset Management, sums up his personal impressions of the investor conference in Moscow at the end of October. The picture is surprisingly positive…
The rising relevance of the anti-establishment movement across many parts of the world has instilled a particular sense of urgency and importance into the upcoming presidential elections in the USA on 8 November.
Economic growth in the emerging markets has picked up substantially, while that in the industrialised economies has been rather stable. This has led to an increase in the growth differential in the emerging markets’ favour. Investor demand for emerging markets bonds has been on the rise in search of higher yields and interest rates.
Equities got off to a terrible start into 2016. At the end of February, a short but intense sell-off was triggered by the emergence of concerns over a slump of the global economy in connection with China. However, since mid-February the international indices have been on the rise without any significant breaks. Not even the […]
Bond yields were up last Friday, whereas equities recorded losses. Signs that the bull market with low volatility, which started after the Brexit vote, is drawing to an end are becoming more plentiful.
In the weeks following the Brexit referendum, the prices of many asset classes were rising amid mild fluctuations. However, an increasing number of clues suggest higher fluctuation for the coming months.
Real estate has been in high demand from investors for a while. The keen interest in “concrete gold” has also moved the shares of real estate companies into the limelight of investors.
The Brexit-vote was a non-event, it seems. At least, that is what global equity markets are telling us. Since June 24 – the day after the referendum – US, European and Japanese indices all have gained around 10% in local currencies (up to August 19). Emerging Markets, on average, made a similar move as well. […]
Author: Felix Dornaus, Senior Fund Manager Emerging Markets Bonds Brazil tactically overweighted at the moment Most of the fundamental economic data are currently not good. In 2016, the country is in recession; for 2017, a minor growth rate of +0.7% is expected. The nominal budget deficit of 2016 is about -10%, with a primary deficit […]
Brazil is locked into a severe recession in 2016, the year of the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. After negative growth of 2.5% last year, the economy will be shrinking by more than 3% in 2016. Political crises and corruption scandals in connection with the oil company Petrobras have badly affected the country. But […]
In Brazil, or more specifically, in Rio de Janeiro, the 31st Summer Olympics will be held in August of 2016. After Mexico City (1968), Moscow (1980), Seoul (1988), and Beijing (2008), this is only the fifth outing in the city of an emerging economy. The holding of the Games reflects the increasing economic importance of […]
Was the decision by the UK to leave the EU a non-event? Globally speaking, share prices have increased, the spreads for default risk have narrowed on many markets, and the UK central bank, i.e. the Bank of England, did not cut its key-lending rate. Good growth rate The economic indicators continue to suggest real economic […]
Interview with Christian Gaier, Senior Fund Manager for emerging markets government bonds Emerging equity and bond funds have borne the brunt of the consequences of the global uncertainties in the past years. Wars and conflicts in the region, slumping commodity prices (especially oil), and fears of an interest rate reversal in the USA have caused […]
The Japanese equity market has been among the weakest ones in the year to date. At -15% (as of 12 July 2016; source: Bloomberg), the Nikkei index is one of the worst performers. For euro investors, the bottom line is not as abysmal: adjusting the loss for the development of the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the […]
What happened? Last Friday evening, a fraction of the Army mostly medium rank officers, had undertaken a coup attempt and seized airports, bridges, TV stations and military headquarters, before attacking the Turkish parliament, leaving the building charred and damaged, and have reasoned to seize power to protect the democracy from the Government.
The vote in favour of leaving the EU by the UK means one thing above all: uncertainty. Because the effects on the sentiment and the behaviour of companies, the public, the financial market participants, and the political parties are difficult to predict. Paradoxically, the prices of risky assets such as equities, corporate bonds, and emerging […]
On 23 June the people of the UK voted in favour of an exit from the European Union. Basically the UK thus strengthened its supposed (?) state sovereignty at the expense of the economic advantages of an EU membership. For the rest of the EU, its economic and political clout weakens as a result.
Yesterday’s referendum in the UK surprised with a narrow majority in favour of Brexit. According to the latest results, 51.8% voted for the Brexit, i.e. the exit from the EU. Polls and betting odds had been suggesting a majority in favour of remaining (“Bremain”) in the EU. As expected, Brexit is triggering a massive negative […]
Author: Dieter Kerschbaum, Communications Specialist Austria Interest rates are at record lows in the euro area, as a result of which investors can feel a great deal of pressure to achieve acceptable yields. This situation shifts their focus back to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Central and Eastern Europe currently comes with […]
Less than a week is left before the British electorate will decide whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union (the Bremain scenario) or leave the union, an outcome known as Brexit. Two months ago, when we started covering this event in a series of blogs (see here, here, here and […]
Risk-averse markets The classic indicators on the capital market suggest rising risk with respect to the economy and risky assets. Spreads have widened, and the yield differential between long-term and short-term government bonds has fallen; volatility has increased. Also, the inflation rate priced in has decreased, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc have appreciated, […]
The financial environment has brightened up. Equity and commodity prices have increased. At the same time, spreads and (implied) volatilities have declined. The positive development across many parts of the world has been supportive to the optimism of investors with regard to an improvement of the economic environment. In conjunction with the surplus liquidity, they […]
Shares (equities) are classified, among other criteria, according to sectors, e.g. healthcare, consumer goods, energy etc. Shareholders pursue different approaches when it comes to the classification process. In this report we follow the methodology of MSCI, a US financial service provider that offers international equity indices and risk analyses.
Equities have recovered from their beginning-of-year slump, and bonds, especially corporate and emerging markets, have recorded impressive gains. The loosening of the monetary environment in China and the continuation of the loose monetary policy in the USA have reduced the risk aversion of investors. In terms of asset allocation, we generally prefer default risk. Equities […]
The US central bank signalled the continuation of its loose monetary policy at its FOMC meeting on 27 April. This is remarkable given that along with the short-term stabilisation of the Chinese economy, this Fed policy is one of the most important reasons for the price rises of risky assets since February.
The global population will reach 10 billion people by 2100, with masses streaming into the cities. The environmental problems are becoming more challenging as we speak due to the exploitation of raw materials and the climate change, which has manifested itself via ever more frequent freak weather events. The call for the cautious handling of […]
Stock markets not impressed – so far While the debate about Brexit is getting more intense (just a day ago the UK Treasury released its warnings) and the Pound Sterling is trading near historical lows as the referendum is approaching, the UK equity market has not shown any signs of stress. Its valuation premium to […]
What financial markets are telling us about Brexit The UK’s exit from the European Union – known as “Brexit” – would be a major economic and political event for the UK, Europa and the wider world. While Brexit is not the most likely outcome, it is a real possibility, raising questions, how financial markets will […]
The economic implications of Brexit Opinion polls and betting odds as well as the muted response of debt and equity investors suggest that Brexit – the UK’s exit from the EU – is not the most likely scenario. That said, it cannot be ruled out. For example, about a quarter of all opinion polls conducted […]
The likelihood of Brexit On June 23, 2016 the UK will hold a referendum. Voters will decide whether the country should remain a member of the European Union (the “Bremain”-scenario), or whether it should leave the EU (the “Brexit”-scenario). Arguably, Brexit marks the most significant tail-risk for European and global asset markets in 2016.
The recovery from the slump on the equity markets we saw at the beginning of the year is coming to an end. The rally is losing steam. The search for new supporting factors in addition to the expansive central bank policies is difficult. In line with the general strategy “sell on highs”, we took the […]
Every year, the best funds and investment companies that show a constantly high, risk-adjusted performance within their comparison group are awarded with the Lipper Fund Awards. This year, our biotechnology equity fund got full marks in Germany over a time period of five years, compared to all other international biotechnology funds.
Gerhard Beulig, fund manager and responsible for the YOU INVEST line, expects capital markets to remain highly volatile for a while. The central banks are trapped by their own extreme interest rate policy; interest rates therefore remain at practically zero percent for short-term investments, with no trend reversal in sight. Investors who want to earn […]
