All articles on the topic “Markets”
Party Crashers
Improved growth prospects for China and Europe and hopes of a sustained decline in inflation have supported the markets since the beginning of the year. However, sharp central bank rhetoric and weak growth indicators in the USA could prove to be spoilers.
Tug of war
At present, indicators on inflation and economic activity are competing to determine which of the two categories is more important for the financial market. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
After a Difficult Year, the Tech Industry Returns to the CES Industry Trade Show
After a three-year pandemic break, the technology industry returned to the renowned electronics trade show CES in Las Vegas. The dominant topics were artificial intelligence and virtual reality. However, extensive staff reduction programs at major tech companies also made headlines recently.
Upbeat markets at the beginning of the year
Despite uncertainties, the stock and bond markets got off to a friendly start in the new year. In the USA, economic data recently surprised on the upside. Is the situation better than the mood?
Ten topics for 2023
The previous year was marked by unexpectedly high inflation and rapid key interest rate hikes – but what will the new year bring?
In his article, Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer presents ten topics that could be particularly relevant for the financial markets in 2023.
Market commentary: What will the new year 2023 bring?
In the past year, numerous trouble spots preoccupied the markets. In his market commentary, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, gives an outlook on what 2023 might bring.
Stock Exchanges Carefully Optimistic for 2023 After Year of Losses
The turn of the year marked the end of a difficult and lossy year on the stock markets. After two years of Corona pandemic, 2022 was dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with many stock exchanges suffering double-digit losses.
Ukraine war: Exclusive interview with ORF correspondent Christian Wehrschütz
Hardly any journalist like Christian Wehrschütz has been dealing so intensively with the background of the Ukraine war for years. In an exclusive interview, the ORF correspondent gave us insights into daily life in the midst of a war. He does not currently see a solution to the conflict in the near future.
Energy of the Future
There is no perfect solution to solve our energy problems in the long term, explains Walter Hatak, Head of Responsible Investments. But instead of burying our heads in the sand, we should be able to choose the best possible alternative, take the future into account in our planning, and learn from past mistakes.
Inflation Reduction Act: what’s next?
The Inflation Reduction Act is designed to get the US back on track in terms of climate protection. What will the law achieve and who could benefit from it? Senior Research Analyst Stefanie Schock addresses these questions in her article.
ERSTE GREEN INVEST – with a tailwind towards energy transition
With the energy transition and the necessary ecologisation of the economy, “green technologies” are likely to remain one of the megatrends of the coming years. The ERSTE GREEN INVEST impact fund invests in precisely those companies whose business models could benefit from this megatrend.
Hydrogen – a colour theory
Hydrogen has great potential as a carbon-free fuel, electricity storage or energy carrier and could play an important role in the energy transition. But not all hydrogen is the same, as Senior ESG Researcher Alexander Osojnik explains. There are certain differences depending on how it is produced, which makes the topic of hydrogen almost a color theory.
Thrilling decisions before Christmas
This week, the financial markets are once again in for an exciting ride: The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve will decide to what extent interest rates will be raised again.
Successful launch of private equity fund of funds in difficult market environment
In June, Erste Asset Management announced the first closing of its private equity fund of funds, “Erste Diversified Private Equity I” at EUR 80mn. In an interview, Thomas Bobek, Head of Private Equity Management, is very satisfied with the successful start of the fund.
High uncertainty reduces potential for asset price increases
The environment for the financial markets remains highly uncertain. The further development of inflation and economic growth is not sufficiently foreseeable. This points to continued high fluctuations in asset prices.
Ceteris Paribus
The indications that the inflation peak will be exceeded are growing. If the relationship between inflation surprises (upside) and asset prices (downside) were to hold, that would be, all other things being equal, good news for the financial market.
Retailers hopeful for Black Friday and Cyber Week
On Black Friday and Cyber Monday, many retailers traditionally draw shoppers with discounts and special offers. In view of high inflation and rising interest rates and their potential impact, the financial markets are looking particularly eagerly to the two big holiday shopping days this year.
Transition Phase
So far this year, high inflation rates have been the driving factor on the financial markets. This could now change, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer writes. Disappointingly weak indicators of economic activity could now increasingly come into focus.
One month is not yet a trend
The rise in inflation in the USA was recently lower than expected, which led to a significantly brighter mood on the markets. However, a favourable inflation report is not yet a trend, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer emphasises.
Reduction in the pace of key interest rate increases
More and more central banks are signalling a reduction in the pace at which they are raising key interest rates. However, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains, this does not necessarily mean that central banks are softening their focus on fighting inflation. Rather, a pause in the rate hike cycle would require a change in inflation dynamics.
Outlook: Development of the neutral real interest rate
This year brought a turning point in the monetary policy of the major central banks. The crucial question is whether this turning point is cyclical or structural. It is therefore worth taking a look at the neutral interest rate, as this captures structural macroeconomic changes.
Strong US dollar increases pressure on Japan’s central bank
The soaring US dollar is causing problems in countries outside the USA. In Japan, the Yen has weakened considerably recently because, unlike the other central banks, the Bank of Japan is sticking to its ultra-loose monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the meeting of the Japanese central bank next Friday will be more in focus than usual.
Is now the right time to invest in equities?
Global equity markets have been under pressure for several months. The short recovery phase in the summer did not last long. What are the reasons for the bear market and when could be a good time to enter?
Emerging Markets Credit Conference – a sentiment snapshot among investors
The mood among investors in the bond sector in emerging markets is mixed, as this year’s Emerging Markets Credit Conference held by US investment bank J.P. Morgan showed. Thomas Oposich, Senior Fund Manager, reports on the conference and his impressions.
Inflation rates (still) too high
The inflation problem continues to preoccupy the central banks. They are likely to maintain their basic restrictive stance until inflation rates have convincingly embarked on a downward trend.
Economy and interest rates in the context of global risks
What do global risks and rising interest rates mean for the economy? We talked to
Prof. Dr. Ernest Gnan, Secretary General of SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and former Head of the Economic Analysis Department of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
Fed remains on course
The latest US labor market data suggest that the Fed will remain on its course of more restrictive monetary policy. “As long as job growth remains strong and unemployment and participation rates remain low, the Fed will maintain its basic restrictive stance”, writes Head Economist Gerhard Winzer in his market commentary.
OPEC Cuts Oil Production by 2m Barrels per Day, Sparking Criticism From the West
Last Wednesday, the countries of the OPEC+ oil alliance decided on a comprehensive reduction in oil production. As early as November, 2 million barrels less per day will be produced. Many countries fear a rise in oil prices.
Good nerves and stamina required
The mood on the capital markets has deteriorated further over the last months. In a comprehensive market update, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management at Erste Asset Management, explains why stamina is needed in the current situation.
Excessive Pessimism?
The unexpectedly high inflation rates draw even wider circles. In view of the pessimistic mood, the question arises whether the negative environment is already being reflected by market prices.
Italy after the parliamentary elections: a path beset by obstacles
Italy has voted: The party “Fratelli d’Italia” around top candidate Giorgia Meloni was the election winner. The center-right alliance together with the parties “Lega” and “Forza Italia” achieved an absolute majority. What consequences could the election results have for the country, its economy and cooperation with the European Union?
Rapid and synchronous key rate hikes
Central banks are responding to high inflation by raising key interest rates. Further key rate hikes are likely this week as well.
New UK Prime Minister and New King During Turbulent Times
The death of Queen Elizabeth II, her succession by Charles III and the appointment of the new prime minister, Liz Truss, mark a change of era in Great Britain. The government’s focus is on the fight against inflation and high energy prices.
Monetary tightening even as growth slows further?
Last week, three major central banks have raised their key interest rates further. By nature, however, it is not easy to find the right key interest rate level – especially in the current environment.
European Forum Alpbach Ends on a Positive Note Despite Ukraine War and Climate Crisis
The 77th edition of the European Forum Alpbach recently came to an end. This year, the symposium was held under the central motto “The New Europe”, with topics such as climate protection or security policy on the agenda.
420 years – The birth of the stock exchange
On August 31, 1602, stock exchange history was written in Amsterdam. 420 years later, Michiel van der Werf, Senior Fund Manager at Erste Asset Management, looks back on the birth of stock exchange trading.
The Meme Stocks Are Back: Bed Bath & Beyond in the Spotlight After Price Rollercoaster
The meme stocks are back. Most recently, the shares of Bed Bath & Beyond in particular have been in the spotlight with a veritable roller coaster ride. What is behind this phenomenon?
For some time valid: Elevated recession risks and restrictive monetary policy
The central banks want to achieve their long-term inflation target of 2%. In order to achieve this goal, they have raised key interest rates and are implementing a restrictive monetary policy. The higher key interest rates will weaken economic growth and also the labour market. Whether this can be achieved without a recession or whether there will be a “soft landing” is currently the subject of heated debate.
ESG investments – “S” is for sexy?
Human rights, child labor, arms production, … – the range of social issues in the ESG universe is long. Besides environmental and governance aspects, social issues are becoming increasingly important when it comes to sustainable investment. A possible EU social taxonomy could bring new standards for sustainable investments and thus bring the “S” in ESG even more into focus.
Jackson Hole – Focus on Monetary Policy
This week, the highly acclaimed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will take place. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech will be the center of attention.
Very tight labor market in the USA
Many economic indicators point to weakening economic momentum. Meanwhile, the US labor market continues to be very robust, which recently mitigated the immediate risks of recession in the United States.
Croatia entering Eurozone – Farewell to Kuna
Croatia’s entry into the euro area is a done deal. Ivana Kunstek, Senior Fund Manager at Erste Asset Management Croatia, talks about her home country’s path into the eurozone.
The Euro – a Snapshot
For more than 20 years, the euro has been the instrument of payment for around 340 million people. What is the current state of our currency and what opportunities and challenges does the euro face?
Energy commodities and inflation – where are we going?
Prices for energy and food have risen significantly, putting a strain on consumers’ wallets. If the Russia-Ukraine war does not ease, the situation may deteriorate even further.
Recession Risks
Ahead of the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, a number of economic indicators point to increasing risks of growth or recession. There are also uncertainties regarding the further development of inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.
WIIW Forecast Sees Eastern European EU Countries Well-Equiped to Handle Consequences of War and Inflation
For this year, experts at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) expect economic growth of 3.3% on average for the EU members in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
Mega interest rate hikes indirectly increase purchasing power
Gerhard Winzer, Chief Economist at Erste Asset Management, provides an overview of recent economic developments and explains, among other things, what structural problems the euro is facing.
Mixed outlook for the second half of the year
Ahead of the upcoming reporting season, several negative factors dominate the markets. Tamás Menyhárt, Senior Fund Manager at Erste Asset Management, sums up the stock market year so far and shares his views on the further development.
Fund savings plan: Why it pays off to persevere
The bears have gained the upper hand on the stock markets. How investors and savers can overcome this phase and why perseverance could pay off right now.
Central Banks Attempt to Prevent Inflationary Spiral
Since the beginning of the year, the bond markets have been in a bear market. What are the implications for the economy? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes three models in relation to the development of inflation and their implications.