Erste Asset Management

Retailers hopeful for Black Friday and Cyber Week

Retailers hopeful for Black Friday and Cyber Week
Retailers hopeful for Black Friday and Cyber Week
Share post:

In view of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the stock exchanges are now focusing their attention on consumers’ holiday season shopping, and particularly US consumers. On the two shopping days after Thanksgiving, many US retailers traditionally draw shoppers with discounts and special offers, and US consumers flock to physical as well as online shops in droves to buy presents. However, the practice is also gaining momentum in other countries.

Domestic consumption is of enormous importance for the US economy, and the holiday season is particularly significant. In view of high inflation and rising interest rates and their possible effect on consumer behaviour, the financial markets were therefore paying close attention to the two big holiday shopping days of this year.

Online Retailing Likely Growing Further in the US

The biggest hope lies in the further growing popularity of online retailers, where, according to experts, new records are expected despite the strong pressure on prices. More than 31 per cent of the consumers surveyed by S&P-Global said in advance that they would make more purchases online than in the previous year. 43 per cent of respondents plan to do most of their Christmas shopping online.

According to initial data from Adobe Analytics, US consumers are expected to have spent between USD 9bn and USD 9.2bn online on Friday alone. For the entire period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, the so-called Cyber Week, Adobe projects online retail sales of USD 34.8bn, according to its surveys, a growth of 2.8 per cent compared to the previous year.

Consumer Sentiment Recovered Since the Summer

Overall, however, inflation is likely to continue to put a damper on US consumer spending. The National Retail Federation forecasts that 166.3 million consumers will do their Christmas shopping during Cyber Week, 8 million more than last year. However, they are likely to leave less money in the retailers’ cash registers. 26 per cent of the consumers surveyed by S&P plan to spend less this Christmas than in 2021, only 7 per cent plan to increase their spending. Nearly 84 per cent of the respondents cited high inflation as the main reason for their planned spending cuts.

In the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, high inflation is also a likely driver of shoppers’ reticence, although the index showed signs of recovery during the course of the year. After a record low of 50 points in June the indicator, which has a lot of followers in the stock markets, recovered, but in November it dropped again slightly by 5.2 points to 54.7. However, this may also have been due to the uncertainty caused by the now-concluded mid-term elections.

According to the University of Michigan, consumers’ inflation expectations have recently risen slightly to 5.1 per cent over the next year and 3.0 per cent over the next 5 to 10 years. This is 0.1 percentage points more than in the previous month. In October, the inflation rate fell to 7.7 per cent, according to data released on Thursday.

Retail Giant Walmart Increased Recent Sales

Shares of many listed retailers saw bull runs during autumn. Shares of Walmart, for example, recovered in the autumn months and are up 5.8 per cent for the year. The US shopping giant experienced strong demand in summer despite high inflation. In Q3, sales increased by almost 9 per cent year-on-year to USD 152.8bn.

Despite high prices, US consumers spent a lot of money on food and clothing, according to Walmart. The group raised its sales target for the year and now expects its revenue to grow by 5.5 per cent. Walmart also raised its profit forecast, but still expects a significant decline compared to the previous year.

Online retailer Amazon on the other hand presented rather different figures: after losses in autumn, the share is down 44 per cent for the year. Amazon recently disappointed with a weak forecast for the holiday business when it presented its quarterly figures. The company also fell short of expectations in its increasingly important cloud division.

German Retail Sees Silver Lining After First Advent Weekend

In Europe, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are now also increasingly popular shopping days and in the corresponding focus of stock markets. In Germany, recent business has been slow, but initial survey data from the German Retail Association (HDE) on the first weekend of Advent give hope for new impetus. “Christmas business is impacted by the energy crisis. Retailers are feeling the consumers’ uncertainty. However, a clear pick-up of business can also be seen from the first Advent weekend,” said HDE CEO Stefan Genth.

For a glossary of technical terms, please visit this link: Fund Glossary | Erste Asset Management

Legal note:

Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.


Legal disclaimer

This document is an advertisement. Unless indicated otherwise, source: Erste Asset Management GmbH. The language of communication of the sales offices is German and the languages of communication of the Management Company also include English.

The prospectus for UCITS funds (including any amendments) is prepared and published in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 as amended. Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by Erste Asset Management GmbH pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in conjunction with the InvFG 2011.

The currently valid versions of the prospectus, the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, and the key information document can be found on the website under “Mandatory publications” and can be obtained free of charge by interested investors at the offices of the Management Company and at the offices of the depositary bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the prospectus, the languages in which the key information document is available, and any other locations where the documents can be obtained are indicated on the website A summary of the investor rights is available in German and English on the website and can also be obtained from the Management Company.

The Management Company can decide to suspend the provisions it has taken for the sale of unit certificates in other countries in accordance with the regulatory requirements.

Note: You are about to purchase a product that may be difficult to understand. We recommend that you read the indicated fund documents before making an investment decision. In addition to the locations listed above, you can obtain these documents free of charge at the offices of the referring Sparkassen bank and the offices of Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG. You can also access these documents electronically at

N.B.: The performance scenarios listed in the key information document are based on a calculation method that is specified in an EU regulation. The future market development cannot be accurately predicted. The depicted performance scenarios merely present potential earnings, but are based on the earnings in the recent past. The actual earnings may be lower than indicated. Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual characteristics of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, experience and knowledge, investment objective, financial position, capacity for loss, and risk tolerance.

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund. Investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of units and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your units. Persons who are interested in purchasing units in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision. If the fund currency is different than the investor’s home currency, changes in the relevant exchange rate can positively or negatively influence the value of the investment and the amount of the costs associated with the fund in the home currency.

We are not permitted to directly or indirectly offer, sell, transfer, or deliver this financial product to natural or legal persons whose place of residence or domicile is located in a country where this is legally prohibited. In this case, we may not provide any product information, either.

Please consult the corresponding information in the fund prospectus and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG for restrictions on the sale of the fund to American or Russian citizens.

It is expressly noted that this communication does not provide any investment recommendations, but only expresses our current market assessment. Thus, this communication is not a substitute for investment advice, does not take into account the legal regulations aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses, and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial analyses.

This document does not represent a sales activity of the Management Company and therefore may not be construed as an offer for the purchase or sale of financial or investment instruments.

Erste Asset Management GmbH is affiliated with the referring Sparkassen banks and Erste Bank.

Please also read the “Information about us and our securities services” published by your bank.

Subject to misprints and errors.

Leave a comment Required fields are marked with *

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *