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YIELD RADAR: September 2018
Annualised real global GDP growth amounts to slightly above 3%. The composition of growth is not homogenuous. While the US economy grows strongly, the weakening loan growths puts weight on the economic activity in China. Find out more in the current yield radar.
Germany remains Europe’s driving economic power
Germany is not only the largest, but also one of the strongest economies in the Eurozone and the EU. This is reflected, among other things, in its stable economic growth. In 2017, Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2 per cent compared to the previous year, only slightly less than the total Eurozone growth of 2.4 per cent.
Possible breakthrough in gene technology driving biotechnology share prices
Biotech shares are regarded as highly promising due to the innovative strength of the sector, but they also tend to be subject to drastic price fluctuations both ways. After a long period of consolidation, biotech shares have embarked on a clear upward trend since May 2018. Harald Kober, Senior Fund Manager, explains the reasons for the investors’ optimism.
European equities – still time to get on board?
The performance of European equities in the year to date has been disappointing. While in the USA stock exchanges are going from strength to strength, European share prices have been stagnating. Is it still worth investing in European equities?
Financial Markets Monitor August: We remain optimistic
The month since the previous meeting in July had been a positive one for investors willing to take risks. Thus, the optimistic risk stance of our team paid off. It is therefore not surprising that the team remains optimistic.
2018 set to be a record year for mergers
2018 could be a record year for mergers, at least if the exceptional first half of the year is any indicator. However, it is this development that makes analysts sceptical as to whether and for how long this pace can be maintained. Will this current bout of mergers soon come to an end?
Short-term stabilisation on the financial markets
After several “mini-shocks” throughout the year such as inflationary fears in the USA and a temporary crisis of trust in connection with Italian government bonds, quite a bit of uncertainty has already been priced into the market. Will the current phase, which is characterised by rising share and bond prices and that comes with credit risk be only a short-lived one? Or have the markets generally entered calmer waters?
Austrian stock market 2018: Flattish, with room to surprise on the upside
Over the past three years (2015-2017) the ATX, Austria’s main equity index, posted an annual return of more than 16%, making the Vienna Stock Exchange the best performing European stock market (or second best, if Eastern Europe is included).
Turkish lira – what are the reasons behind the current crisis?
The Turkish lira reflects the difficult situation Turkey is currently in. This year alone, the currency has shed more than 45% of its value to date. Interview update with Anton Hauser, Senior Fund Manager, Eastern Europe bonds.
Russian bonds should see good performance
In this interview Anton Hauser, senior fund manager at Erste Asset Management and expert for Central and East European (CEE) government bonds , talks about the difficult first half of 2018 and illustrates possible future scenarios.
Market view: Increased uncertainty
The performance of most asset classes in the year to date has been mixed, to put it euphemistically. Is there a common underlying factor? Can we expect to see a better second half of the year?
Post-election Turkey – What’s next?
Has the political and economical backdrop improved as result of the election in Turkey? In our newest blog post we’re answering 7 of the most important questions.
A brief history of time.. and markets
In the nineteen-sixties, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot noticed something that experienced traders had known for long: that time at the stock exchange does not always run the same. Read about the relativity of time here.
Financial Markets Monitor June: a lot going on
An Investment Committee again! A month can pass quickly, especially if there is a lot going on in the markets. In light of recent market events (Italy, Turkey, Argentina), I was surprised that our risk stance has not changed since our last Investment Committee meeting. Obviously, it takes a lot to get us out of […]
Hey Mrs. Robinson
Editorial: Gerold Permoser, CIO and CSIO of Erste Asset Management, comments on the topic of this issue.
The Life of Plastics – Investment Board
The Erste AM Investment Board gives a form to the responsive dialogue with and among sustainability research agencies.
“Disposable plastic is mostly responsible for plastic waste in the seas”
Interview with Axel Hein, marine expert at WWF Austria.
Company of this edition: Tomra Systems
The Company of the Month is selected due to recent developments and in connection with the topic ”Plastic”.
Plastic planet
79 % of the produced plastic waste are currently spread across the environment or in landfills. More facts about plastic can be found here…
Plastic in our Environment
The world consumes resources more quickly and at larger quantities than our population is growing.
A Brief History of Rubber
Lasting Words: “Everything used to be better. What is plastic today was natural rubber back then,” says Gerold Permoser, CIO and CSIO of Erste AM.
Responsible investment universe
The definition of the investment universe is the most important step in the construction of a fund
Certified Erste AM Funds
The Erste AM RESPONSIBLE funds are subject to constant scrutiny with regard to their sustainable quality.
Russia back on growth path prior to the World Cup finals, but no reason for euphoria
At the kick-off for the World Cup finals on 14 June, Russia will move to the public limelight for four weeks. Time for a closer look at the Russian economy and equity market.
30 years of falling interest rates – what is ahead of us?
Let’s start with a trip down memory lane: Do you remember the scenery 30 years ago – on the financial markets, and in our personal lives? The 1980s – many of the older generation are still thinking back to the “good old times”. There were no smartphones and no data kraken. Instead, we had shoulder […]
Is Turkey about to run into a balance of payments crisis?
The Turkish central bank was forced to raise its most important interest rate by 300bps and to re-align its monetary instruments. What are the reasons for this nosedive?
Italy: slipping into a crisis in confidence
The heightened uncertainty over whether Italy will repay its debts and whether it will remain a member of the eurozone has led to a sell-off in securities. Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer gives an overview.
Financial Markets Monitor May: positive opportunities outnumber negative ones
Positive opportunities still outnumber the negative ones on the capital markets – that was the conclusion of our Investment Committee. Our willingness to take risks is still optimistic and also moderately higher than in April.
Rising interest rates in the USA
The sentiment of the financial market participants has deteriorated in the past months, with the losses across numerous asset classes in the year to date seemingly the driving factor. Now we have to ask ourselves: are we at the outset of a new trend, or is this just a case of increased volatility? The general decline in prices has gone in conspicuous tandem with the increase in three important financial market ratios:
Croatia hits fever pitch
No, this is not an article on football, and any football reference is purely coincidental. This is an article on the football nation whose economy is (finally) showing positive trends and has (finally) been awarded a one-notch rating upgrade by two rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, this year. Only one notch away from the much-desired investment grade rating, the Croatian economy remains on sound footing before tackling its last challenge.
Sell in May and go away?
Every year at the beginning of May, investors are faced with the question of whether they should leave the stock exchanges and take the profits generated up to that point, and return at a later date in autumn. But is the old stock market adage “Sell in May” still valid?
IMF conference in Washington: cautiously upbeat sentiment about emerging markets
Senior Funds Manager Felix Dornaus summarises his learning points from the presentations by the International Monetary Fund in Washington on 20 to 23 April 2018. Who were the winners and who the losers?
Turkey´s astonishing rush to early elections
Amalia Ripfl, Senior Fundmanager explains Turkey´s rush to early elections: who profits and what does it mean for the equity market?
Bleaker sentiment on the financial markets
The environment on the financial markets has become a bit bleaker. Growth rates of industrial output and the survey-based indicators for economic growth are falling, while the trade conflict between the USA and China and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has caused the risk for global growth to increase further. Will the environment remain generally supportive to risky asset classes?
Judging Managers’ Character
It is often overlooked and due to its elusive nature, there is no standardized way to judge someone’s character. The topic rarely appears in textbooks or professional courses, and investors are generally skeptical about their ability to asses it. Which leads to the following question: Is it knowable? In other words, is there some reliable way to judge someone’s character?
Financial Markets Monitor April: upside-down scenario
On 3 April, we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Only three weeks after the previous one – three weeks that were tightly packed with issues, as we can see in the performance data of the most important asset classes. Equities and high-yield bonds have lost value, whereas Eurozone government bonds and emerging markets bonds have recorded gains. An upside-down scenario, compared to previous months.
Helping people to help themselves
There are investments that create a better world. Microloans give people in the Third World a chance to a better life and facilitate a stable yield for domestic investors.
US Fed tightens its monetary policy
The most important central bank of the world, the US Fed, increased the Fed funds rate on 21 March and also published projections for economic key indicators. Even though this does not sound like much, the implications for the markets are significant.
World Water Day 2018: Smoke on the water – the water footprint of sustainable investments
The World Water Day was first introduced on 22 March 1993. The goal was to anchor the meaning of water and thus the efficient use of this critical resource in the collective consciousness. Despite the long history, the importance of water from the point of view of risk has only recently gained in relevance.
Knowing the Future: parallels between weather and financial forecasting
Google ‚forecasting future‘, and over 28 million hits appear. Clearly, knowing what will happen before it happens is big business: from financial markets to the weather, and anything in between, says Rosmarie de Wit, Austrian center for meteorology (ZAMG).
Financial Markets Monitor: we have stepped up the risk of our asset allocation by a notch
On 14 March our Investment Committee met, and as always, we started out on a discussion of our risk stance, i.e. our risk assessment. From my point of view, four findings of the discussion are worth bringing up here:
Protectionism: Risk of a trade war with the US?
The announcement by the US President, Donald Trump, to levy import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) has made waves. Can the favourable economic environment be toppled an will we see a trade war between the US and the EU?
Equity returns and dividends: it depends on the market phase
To most people, the notion of the performance of shares relates to changes in the share price. This does not take into account the second component of return, i.e. the dividend. Simply looking at the share price development seems too one-sided to me. After all, dividends may account for up to a third of total return, as is the case for example for the shares listed on the Vienna stock exchange. However, shares with strong dividends do not generate the highest total return in every phase of the market.
The source of life (Editorial)
Gerold Permoser is Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Erste Asset Management. In this function he is in charge of the asset management activities and investment strategies of all investment funds of the Erste Asset Management Group in Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
Sustainable use of water (Investment Board)
The Erste AM Investment Board gives a structured form to the ongoing and responsive dialogue with and among sustainability research agencies. The Board offers the chance to integrate in-house and external research. It also discusses rating details, the ESG’s assessment of the IPOs of new issuers and sustainability issues in general.
More than a drop in the bucket?
The World Water Day was first introduced on 22 March 1993. The goal was to anchor the meaning of water and thus the efficient use of this critical resource in the collective consciousness. Despite the long history, the importance of water from the point of view of risk has only recently gained in relevance.
Quo Vadis Italia? – The 2018 general election in Italy and its importance to the economy
The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.
Equity investors’ interest rate fears may be overblown
Fears of rising interest rates are back. Was the recent 9% correction in global equities just a market blip, amplified by technical factors related to the trading of volatility products? Or something more serious – a regime shift signalling the end of the equity bull market as many have argued?
Ten new determining factors for the capital market
The economic environment for the capital markets is subject to change as we speak. About one and a half years ago, the global economy shifted from recovery to boom, which was very advantageous for the markets. The features were strong, broadly based economic growth, low inflation, very supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and limited price fluctuations on the markets. We have now started leaving this best of all worlds (“Goldilocks scenario”) in more and more categories.
Investment stories in Latin America
The BBVA Latin American Local Markets Conference in London gave Christian Gaier, senior fund manager of government bonds of emerging markets, the chance to talk to local Latin American representatives. In our blog he shares some of the insights he gained and the narratives that may affect 2018.