Annualised real global GDP growth amounts to slightly above 3%. The composition of growth is not homogenuous. While the US economy grows strongly, the weakening loan growths puts weight on the economic activity in China. The intensified financial environment hurts emerging markets. The Eurozone and Japan show stabilizing trends. Overall one can observe a slight falling tendency of survey based indicators.
Inflation rates develop inhomogeneous as well. Overall there is a mild cyclical increase in inflation rates. Some emerging markets (Argentina, Turkey) are facing problems with inflation.
Political risk increased significantly („Brexit“, „Trade-War“). The US-Federal Reserve will increase the base rate by 25 basis points every quarter until year end and signals a rate of 3.1% until the end of 2019. From the ECB there is no news. The bond repurchasing program will expire at the end 2018. An interest rate hike within the Eurozone can be expected in the Summer of 2019, the earliest.
Development of bond yields of US- and EUR-Government-Bonds and EUR-Corporate-Bonds Investment-Grade (08/2013-08/2018)
Development of bond yields of European High-Yield-Bonds compared with global High-Yield-Bonds and Emerging-Markets-Corporate-Bonds (08/2013-08/2018)
The development of historic yields is not a reliable indicator for future developments of a specific asset category or asset class. The charts above do not include any fees or costs.
Ratio-Overview (more information can be found at www.erste-am.com)
Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.