Can price stability, i.e. inflation of 2%, be achieved without a recession? The further decline in inflation in the US in June has raised expectations for this favourable scenario. However, a look in the rear-view mirror calls for caution. In the past, a central bank-induced decline in inflation has often been accompanied by a recession.
ARTICLES IN THE TOPIC “Markets”
Recession, inflation, key interest rates: Economic outlook for the second half of the year
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
Benefit from the megatrend Artificial Intelligence with equities
The megatrend of artificial intelligence is also on everyone’s lips on the financial markets. Some companies from the AI sector have posted significant gains in their stock price so far this year. We show you with which investments you can profit from the AI boom and what you need to bear in mind.
Fight against inflation: Monetary policy remains restrictive
Central banks remain on a restrictive course and hold out the prospect of further key interest rate hikes. Although there are some signs of a further decline in inflation, it is falling more slowly than expected. You can read where the journey could lead in the blog post.
Interest rate decisions in focus: what will the central banks do?
This week, the markets are eagerly awaiting the upcoming interest rate decisions. The Fed in the USA will make the first move today, Wednesday. For the first time in the current cycle, no increase in the key interest rate is expected. For tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the ECB, on the other hand, the market expects a further rate hike of 25 basis points.
Inflation in Europe likely to have peaked
Inflation data in Europe recently showed a surprisingly significant slowdown. The decline in energy prices in particular had a dampening effect. Read our latest blog post to find out about the current inflation in the individual EU countries.
US labour market: strong employment growth
Surprisingly good figures came from the US labor market in the previous week. Despite the strong growth in employment, however, economic growth has recently been rather meager. Recession risks also remain at an uncomfortably high level.
Germany slides into technical recession: What does that mean?
The German economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter. What does this mean for the largest economy in the euro zone and what is a technical recession?
“Brinkmanship” – Agreement on Debt Ceiling
The representatives of the Democrats and the Republicans have reached an agreement in the dispute over the debt ceiling in the USA. The cap of $31,400 billion is to be suspended until 2025. Subject to approval in the House of Representatives and Congress, the agreement is positive for the financial markets. However, another effect could weigh on the markets further down the line.
Meager Growth
Global growth is likely to cool significantly in the second quarter. At the same time, recession risks remain uncomfortably high, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer writes in his market commentary. The further course of negotiations on the US debt ceiling is also likely to cause tension on the market.