In the global world order, much seems to be in a state of upheaval. The changes brought about by the new US administration are a structural change that is also affecting the financial markets. In our view, this scenario is currently the most likely 👉
Two developments on the stock markets have stood out since the beginning of the year: rising inflation expectations and significant increases in government bond yields. Could market sentiment soon turn frosty in view of this?
In September, the US labor market performed surprisingly well, with significantly more new jobs created than expected. This has pushed back concerns about an impending recession, which is positive for the financial markets. Was the strong labor market report just an outlier, or is the US Federal Reserve perhaps on the right track to achieving the hoped-for “soft landing”?
After the rapid and sharp interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, the pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction. After the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates for the first time this Wednesday, thus initiating a new cycle of interest rate cuts. What does all this mean for the economy and what conclusions can be drawn from it for investments?
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
The path towards a clearly fragmented global economy is continuing. Recently, the increase in tariffs on Chinese electric cars in the USA and the European Union has been particularly noticeable. What impact is the rise of protectionism having on the global economy?
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
Economic and political uncertainty is increasing. Nevertheless, inflation is falling in the USA and the eurozone. This increases the scope for central banks to react to a slowdown in economic growth by lowering key interest rates.
In the EU parliamentary elections, right-wing parties made significant gains in some major countries. In France, early elections are now on the cards following President Macron’s defeat. What possible effects could a shift to the right have in the EU?
The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate tomorrow for the first time since the interest rate turnaround in 2022. But what comes next? Will the first cut herald a series of interest rate cuts or will the monetary guardians remain cautious? Chief economist Gerhard Winzer takes a look at the ECB’s possible future interest rate policy.
