Search results for the keyword: election
Contra Big Data – When the algorithm knows too much
“If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to be afraid of”. What is at the core of this argument? More on our blog.
Possible breakthrough in gene technology driving biotechnology share prices
Biotech shares are regarded as highly promising due to the innovative strength of the sector, but they also tend to be subject to drastic price fluctuations both ways. After a long period of consolidation, biotech shares have embarked on a clear upward trend since May 2018. Harald Kober, Senior Fund Manager, explains the reasons for the investors’ optimism.
Turkish lira – what are the reasons behind the current crisis?
The Turkish lira reflects the difficult situation Turkey is currently in. This year alone, the currency has shed more than 45% of its value to date. Interview update with Anton Hauser, Senior Fund Manager, Eastern Europe bonds.
Company of this edition: Tomra Systems
The Company of the Month is selected due to recent developments and in connection with the topic ”Plastic”.
Russia back on growth path prior to the World Cup finals, but no reason for euphoria
At the kick-off for the World Cup finals on 14 June, Russia will move to the public limelight for four weeks. Time for a closer look at the Russian economy and equity market.
Is Turkey about to run into a balance of payments crisis?
The Turkish central bank was forced to raise its most important interest rate by 300bps and to re-align its monetary instruments. What are the reasons for this nosedive?
Italy: slipping into a crisis in confidence
The heightened uncertainty over whether Italy will repay its debts and whether it will remain a member of the eurozone has led to a sell-off in securities. Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer gives an overview.
IMF conference in Washington: cautiously upbeat sentiment about emerging markets
Senior Funds Manager Felix Dornaus summarises his learning points from the presentations by the International Monetary Fund in Washington on 20 to 23 April 2018. Who were the winners and who the losers?
Protectionism: Risk of a trade war with the US?
The announcement by the US President, Donald Trump, to levy import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) has made waves. Can the favourable economic environment be toppled an will we see a trade war between the US and the EU?
Sustainable use of water (Investment Board)
The Erste AM Investment Board gives a structured form to the ongoing and responsive dialogue with and among sustainability research agencies. The Board offers the chance to integrate in-house and external research. It also discusses rating details, the ESG’s assessment of the IPOs of new issuers and sustainability issues in general.
Ten new determining factors for the capital market
The economic environment for the capital markets is subject to change as we speak. About one and a half years ago, the global economy shifted from recovery to boom, which was very advantageous for the markets. The features were strong, broadly based economic growth, low inflation, very supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and limited price fluctuations on the markets. We have now started leaving this best of all worlds (“Goldilocks scenario”) in more and more categories.
Investment stories in Latin America
The BBVA Latin American Local Markets Conference in London gave Christian Gaier, senior fund manager of government bonds of emerging markets, the chance to talk to local Latin American representatives. In our blog he shares some of the insights he gained and the narratives that may affect 2018.
Global equities: Five charts on where we stand
2017 was an excellent year for stocks. Developed markets were up more than 16% in local currencies, emerging markets almost 28%. How will the markets develop in 2018?
European banks: Outlook for 2018
European banks (as measured by the Stoxx 600 Banks Index) had a decent year in 2017: the index climbed more than 8%, slightly outperforming the broader European market (Stoxx 600 Index). The strongest positive impulse came from the French elections in April last year, where the populist threat was successfully defeated by Emmanuel Macron, arguably the most market-friendly candidate among the contenders. A robust European economy and a solid business sentiment throughout the year also helped banking shares go higher.
Ten economic hypotheses for 2018
The current environment is very positive for the capital markets: strong growth, low inflation, supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and low volatilities, i.e. fluctuations. Also, the numerous risks have not had a significantly negative impact on prices. However, the phase of rising prices started as early as March 2009.
Best of Erste AM Investment Blog 2017
2017 was a positive year on the global capital markets. We have analysed which blogs were the most popular ones last year.
Market Monitor: risky markets have come far
Earlier this week, we convened the last Investment Committee of 2017. The general risk appetite of the team has not changed vis-à-vis the previous month (from 78.85 percent to 79 percent on our 0 – 100 percent scale). The team continues to see the future optimistically, with a resulting “risk on” stance.
Emerging markets – not a pure commodities story any longer
The global economy is experiencing significant growth, and the emerging markets have felt the increased economic growth rates as well. Even in problematic countries such as Brazil or Russia, the situation has been picking up due to the increased oil price.
Equities: Optimistic, but cautious
2017 has been another bumper year for global equities with the MSCI All Country Index gaining ca. 18% in the first ten months in dollar terms. November, however, has not started well for risky assets.
Market Monitor: Optimism on the rise
This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.
Disruption from Catalonia
The events in Catalonia are a new disruptive political element on the capital markets. The basic question is whether the generally favourable environment for risky assets is sustainable.
European bank shares picking up
After years of drought, European bank shares have shown a solid performance in the year to date.
Alternative investment strategies: part 2
After illustrating what alternative strategies are in part 1 of this series, how they work, and what benefits and disadvantages they come with, we would now like to discuss some of the most important representatives of this set of strategies. In the following strategies (also called hedge funds), the majority of the capital invested is allocated to alternative models.
A niche product with solid returns: hybrid and subordinated bonds with investment grade rating
Author: Christin Bahr, Product Management Securities Erste Group It has been half a year since the launch of the new hybrid bond fund. Reason enough for us to talk to Roman Swaton, Senior Fundmanager.
The global economy based on the Goldilocks principle
The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?
Bribery accusations put shock to Brazilian capital markets
Last Thursday, incriminating video and audio tapes emerged that linked current President Michel Temer to bribery. The accusations have thrown Brazil into a deep political crisis, and the capital markets have lost massively.
The best global equity funds under one roof
Markus Jandrisevits has been the manager of our global flagship equity fund since 28 February 2002. The performance to date is impressive on an international scale. I asked Markus what was special about his investment approach and how he has positioned himself in the current stock market phase of high political risks.
Afterthoughts on the Turkish referendum
After the ballots were counted on 16 April 2017, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported that “Yes” had won by securing 51.4% of the votes, which was later also confirmed by the Electoral Commission. Serious concerns were raised by the OSCE. It is also important to note that the referendum took place during a “state of emergency”. That is to say, in a highly repressive climate in which the President and the government controlled the media, jailed critical journalists and leaders of pro-Kurdish parliamentary opposition, and arbitrarily detained and prosecuted the President’s opponents. The result of the referendum has paved the way for the most controversial changes that Turkey has faced in its history.
Curves (part 4) – the premium, or spread, is the clincher
The interest rates, or coupons, that bonds pay differ due to a variety of parameters. If bond A pays a higher interest rate than bond B, this premium is referred to as spread.
Stock exchange rules – myth or reality
Who has not heard of the old stock exchange rule “Sell in May and go away” – sometimes complemented by “but remember to come back in September”. We had a closer look at this adage and have analysed the performance on the global stock exchanges over the past 48 years.
ECB takes another tiny step
Economic growth in the Eurozone has embarked on a clear upward trend. At the same time, the fear of falling wages and prices has disappeared for now. The worries over a possible break-up of the European Union have also eased. Against this backdrop, the ECB President Draghi issued a slightly more optimistic growth forecast yet again on 27 April at the press conference of the European Central Bank. This is another tiny step indicating a possible reduction of the monetary support in the medium term.
Reflation trade comes to an end
The markets were consolidating in March. The global equity index, the spreads for credit risk, and the yields of risk-free government bonds have been going sideways. Before that, the risky asset classes had recorded remarkable price increases, while risk-free bonds had incurred losses. Has the so-called reflation trade, i.e. the positioning towards rising nominal economic […]
Fragile bull market
It is as difficult to remain invested in a bull market as it is to leave a bear market. After all, investors are risk-averse. Taking into account the four most important categories for the assessment of the attractiveness of asset classes – valuation, liquidity, positioning, and growth – one would conclude that the most important driving factor for the markets builds on the last one.
Equity investors: Are they ignoring risks?
The year 2016 was full of surprises. It was, for example, the year, when an outsider overcame odds of 5000 to 1 to win the Premier League. It was also the year, when the lyrics of three-minute pop songs were acknowledged to be an art form worth the Literature Nobel. Most importantly, however, politics in the Western hemisphere surprised big time with the vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.
Macro: 10 theses for 2017
What are the topics that will be relevant this year? In commemoration of the fifth centenary of Martin Luther posting his 95 propositions, we, too, want to suggest ten theses for 2017.
The year 2016 was full of broken trends on the stock exchanges
Another year has passed, and it is time to look back. The year on the stock exchanges started out worse than in a long time. After only a few trading days, losses averaged 10%. The fear of economic turbulences originating in China dominated the markets. Meanwhile the currency of choice during a crisis, gold, was […]
Best of Erste AM Investment Blog 2016
The last year 2016 was full of surprises also on the capital markets. Most asset classes could finish the year with a solid plus. We have analyzed, which blogs were the most popular in the last year.
Italy – the third domino
On Sunday 4 December Italy will be holding a referendum on an amendment to the constitution. This is relevant particularly because in case of a rejection, the political uncertainty would increase.
Is there a potential for a year-end rally in stocks?
From a technical point of view, the concept of a “year-end rally” is a myth. At least, this is what empirical evidence is telling us. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500, for example, posted a December performance, on average, of 1.12%, making December only the 5th-best month of the year (Fig.1). Over the […]
Trumponomics
The market participants are still focused on the implications of Donald Trump’s victory at the US presidential elections. In simple terms, “Trumponomics” are a combination of expansive fiscal policies and restrictive trade policy. An increased budget deficit is supposed to support economic growth, while the curbing of free trade aims at job protection.
Markets assume President Trump will deliver
The outcome of the US election last week, together with the Brexit-vote in June, was the second major political event this year that shook financial markets. In both cases the outcome was different to what pollsters, the media and investors anticipated. Unsurprisingly, markets – across asset-classes and geographies – reacted strongly and in some cases […]
Clinton versus Trump
The rising relevance of the anti-establishment movement across many parts of the world has instilled a particular sense of urgency and importance into the upcoming presidential elections in the USA on 8 November.
Emerging markets bonds in demand
Economic growth in the emerging markets has picked up substantially, while that in the industrialised economies has been rather stable. This has led to an increase in the growth differential in the emerging markets’ favour. Investor demand for emerging markets bonds has been on the rise in search of higher yields and interest rates.
“The trust in emerging markets is returning”
ESPA STOCK GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS: Three questions for Gabriela Tinti, Senior Fund Manager
Increasing volatility expected
In the weeks following the Brexit referendum, the prices of many asset classes were rising amid mild fluctuations. However, an increasing number of clues suggest higher fluctuation for the coming months.
Spotlight on: corporate bonds
ESPA RESERVE CORPORATE: 3 questions for Bernd Stampfl, fund manager.
Brazilian equities are in demand
Brazil is locked into a severe recession in 2016, the year of the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. After negative growth of 2.5% last year, the economy will be shrinking by more than 3% in 2016. Political crises and corruption scandals in connection with the oil company Petrobras have badly affected the country. But […]
Brexit-Referendum – a Non-Event?
Was the decision by the UK to leave the EU a non-event? Globally speaking, share prices have increased, the spreads for default risk have narrowed on many markets, and the UK central bank, i.e. the Bank of England, did not cut its key-lending rate. Good growth rate The economic indicators continue to suggest real economic […]
The comeback of the Emerging Markets
Interview with Christian Gaier, Senior Fund Manager for emerging markets government bonds Emerging equity and bond funds have borne the brunt of the consequences of the global uncertainties in the past years. Wars and conflicts in the region, slumping commodity prices (especially oil), and fears of an interest rate reversal in the USA have caused […]
Turkey’s coup attempt
What happened? Last Friday evening, a fraction of the Army mostly medium rank officers, had undertaken a coup attempt and seized airports, bridges, TV stations and military headquarters, before attacking the Turkish parliament, leaving the building charred and damaged, and have reasoned to seize power to protect the democracy from the Government.