The stock markets are also usually a little quieter during the summer months. Many market participants take a break due to holidays and the general activity decreases. In any case, a look at some important charts indicates that no nasty surprises are to be expected during the holidays.
Can price stability, i.e. inflation of 2%, be achieved without a recession? The further decline in inflation in the US in June has raised expectations for this favourable scenario. However, a look in the rear-view mirror calls for caution. In the past, a central bank-induced decline in inflation has often been accompanied by a recession.
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
The German economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter. What does this mean for the largest economy in the euro zone and what is a technical recession?
The volatility of bonds has increased significantly and is clearly higher than that of equities. What are the reasons for this difference in development?
Most recently, central banks have signaled a somewhat less sharpish stance, as an effect of the rapid key rate hikes on the monetary environment has already become visible. However, recent economic data are dampening hopes for a rapid decline in inflation, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains in his market commentary.
The global economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, inflation remains too high, which is why central banks will continue to pursue a restrictive monetary policy. Although growth indicators are good to strong, there are therefore increased risks of recession.
Improved growth prospects for China and Europe and hopes of a sustained decline in inflation have supported the markets since the beginning of the year. However, sharp central bank rhetoric and weak growth indicators in the USA could prove to be spoilers.
The environment for the financial markets remains highly uncertain. The further development of inflation and economic growth is not sufficiently foreseeable. This points to continued high fluctuations in asset prices.
So far this year, high inflation rates have been the driving factor on the financial markets. This could now change, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer writes. Disappointingly weak indicators of economic activity could now increasingly come into focus.
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