At the kick-off for the World Cup finals on 14 June, Russia will move to the public limelight for four weeks. Time for a closer look at the Russian economy and equity market.
No, this is not an article on football, and any football reference is purely coincidental. This is an article on the football nation whose economy is (finally) showing positive trends and has (finally) been awarded a one-notch rating upgrade by two rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, this year. Only one notch away from the much-desired investment grade rating, the Croatian economy remains on sound footing before tackling its last challenge.
The announcement by the US President, Donald Trump, to levy import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) has made waves. Can the favourable economic environment be toppled an will we see a trade war between the US and the EU?
The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.
The BBVA Latin American Local Markets Conference in London gave Christian Gaier, senior fund manager of government bonds of emerging markets, the chance to talk to local Latin American representatives. In our blog he shares some of the insights he gained and the narratives that may affect 2018.
Equity indices have undergone a global correction in the past days. The Dow Jones index has shed more than 10% from its January high. What is the macro-economic reason for the correction?
In the past two days, the stock exchanges, spearheaded by the New York Stock Exchange, have shed the entire previous gains of 2018. Even last week, inflation worries had started to weigh on the markets. But the recent reaction was extraordinarily strong, with experts likening it to the excellent employment report in the US. We have asked Peter Szopo, our equity strategist, about the current market situation.
Interview with Ulrich Eberl, one of the most renowned German-speaking scientific journalists and futurologists. Among the books he has published are “Zukunft 2050 – wie wir schon heute die Zukunft erfinden“ (“Future 2050 – how we are inventing the future today”) and “Smarte Maschinen – wie Künstliche Intelligenz unser Leben verändert“ (“Smart machines – how artificial intelligence changes our lives”).
The current environment is very positive for the capital markets: strong growth, low inflation, supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and low volatilities, i.e. fluctuations. Also, the numerous risks have not had a significantly negative impact on prices. However, the phase of rising prices started as early as March 2009.
2017 is drawing to an end, and the bottom line is positive. The outcome is significantly better than we had expected. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has never expanded more quickly and especially concertedly than in 2017. Also, inflation has surprised on the downside, falling short yet again of the expectations held by central banks and analysts.