Stock market professionals are less pessimistic about the prospects for the German economy in the next six months. This is shown by the current economic barometer of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). The government also wants to get the economy moving again with additional relief measures.
At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
The German economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter. What does this mean for the largest economy in the euro zone and what is a technical recession?
Last week, positive economic data brought back some confidence. The global purchasing managers’ index, one of the most important survey-based economic reports, rose for the third time in a row. On the other hand, the latest inflation reports dampen hopes of a rapid decline in inflation without additional key rate hikes.
The environment for the financial markets remains highly uncertain. The further development of inflation and economic growth is not sufficiently foreseeable. This points to continued high fluctuations in asset prices.
The indications that the inflation peak will be exceeded are growing. If the relationship between inflation surprises (upside) and asset prices (downside) were to hold, that would be, all other things being equal, good news for the financial market.
On Black Friday and Cyber Monday, many retailers traditionally draw shoppers with discounts and special offers. In view of high inflation and rising interest rates and their potential impact, the financial markets are looking particularly eagerly to the two big holiday shopping days this year.
US government bond yields have risen significantly in recent weeks. How does Erste Asset Management’s Head of Fixed Income Wolfgang Zemanek assess the interest rate development and the role of the central banks? Read more in the current blog interview on the bond markets.
A year ago India was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Today the world looks completely different because of COVID-19. But no matter how bad the conditions in India are, Prime Minister Modi’s popularity is on the rise. Could he really emerge from the crisis as a profiteer?
The corona pandemic has plunged the world into an economic crisis. Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the 10 most important points about recovery, economic policy, inflation and the duration of the slump.