Articles about “Fed”
Global economy running into headwind
The global economy is in the recovery phase of the cycle. Economic growth is well above the long-term trend, but headwinds have increased recently. What needs to happen to ensure that growth does not slow down? Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the prospects for the future.
Bond markets between strengthening economy and high liquidity
Bond funds are not always the “first choice” right now. The strong profits of listed companies and the orderly dividend payouts are currently outpacing interest income. If you are looking at performance, you have to look closely. Interview with Wolfgang Zemanek, Head of Bond Funds, Initial Asset Management.
The Fed is a dove
Equities have been weaker in recent days. This is largely due to concerns that sooner-than-expected interest rate increases in the USA could be detrimental to the financial market. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains why in the most likely case scenario, this will not be happening in the foreseeable future.
Equities and the inflation scare
The strong economic recovery and positive corporate results are fueling concerns about the emergence of inflation. But are these fears justified? Erste Asset Management equity expert Tamas Menyhart analyzes the situation on the stock exchanges and shows ways of guarding against inflation.
Sustainable income with “double dividends”
Comfortably making return on the money market via interest? A thing of the past. Investors wanting to outsmart inflation should think about dividends and dividend shares. The combination of dividend shares with a selection process that takes into account ESG criteria constitutes an interesting investment alternative. So there is a kind of “two dividends”.
How are global equity markets doing?
The global stock markets got off to a strong start into the new year and continued to gain, which means that the bull market has now lasted for almost a year. However, the market structure has changed significantly in the past few months. Our equity expert Tamás Menyhart analyzes the current situation.
High Inflation – likely to emerge?
At the beginning of September, the FED announced a significant change in their policy: They officially announced the implementation of “average inflation targeting”. This allows to have a higher inflation rate for a period of time instead of being closely held to the target inflation rate of 2%.
Why did the FED announce this shift in its policy? Is inflation returning in the agenda? In this article, we intend to show the policy requirements for high(er) inflation.
FOMC Meeting – Update from the Investment Division
Yesterday, the Fed was the focus of attention & the increase in Covid 19 infections could put further pressure on the economy. Update from the Investment Division.
„I‘ m easy like a sunday morning“ – Update from the Investment Division
The Commodores around Lionel Richie landed a hit with their song “Easy” in 1977. The monetary policy of the central banks remains just as “easy”. Update from the Investment Division
Rollercoaster ride for markets – Update from the Investment Division
“Rollercoaster ride continues”: Most stock exchanges were clearly in the red & the markets ignore the new infections in China. Update from the Investment Division
Stock market rally – Update from the Investment Division
Yesterday it seemed as if the stock markets needed to catch their breath after the rally of the last few weeks. It was the seventh day that the S&P 500 suffered a daily loss. Update from the Investment Division.
Postitive end of the week – Update from the Investment Division
The end of the week on the stock markets was more positive than the beginning of last week. Update from the Investment Division.
Rollercoaster ride continues – Update from the Investment Division
Rollercoaster ride continues. What has occurred since yesterday? And what will we be observing in the coming days? Update from the Investment Division
Living in volatile times – Coronavirus
The update of our Investment Division What has occurred since yesterday In his address to the National Union of South African Students in Capetown 1966 in regards to the US-American civil rights movement Robert F. Kennedy said the following: „There is a Chinese curse that says: “May he live in interesting times” If we want […]
Coronavirus: The economic effects of epidemics and pandemics
What are the economic effects of an epidemic or pandemic? Our Experts went through relevant studies in order to be able to give a well-founded assessment. The results are surprising.
USA: Inverse yield curve fuels fear of recession
In the US bond market, the yield on two-year government bonds had risen above the yield on ten-year bonds, creating the rare situation of an inverse yield curve. This was last the case in 2007.
Constructive central banks
Risky asset classes such as equities have recorded price increases at the beginning of the year. The core question for the investor is: Is this recovery after the sharp decline in Q4 sustainable or not?
Financial markets 2018: reasons to be cautiously optimistic
The financial markets have been on the rocks in 2018. Read here why you should still keep a cautiously optimistic stance.
Mixed feelings on the US stock exchanges
After a good start to the US reporting season, the tide on the US stock exchanges turned last week. Find out more in our new blog.
US Federal Reserve with the third interest rate hike this year
The central bankers’ assessments regarding inflation and the labour market are considered important indicators for future interest rate policy. More on our blog.
Strong USA, weak emerging markets, risk of inflation – is the economic boom drawing to an end?
This blog entry will discuss three scenarios for the coming quarters and the coming year.
Financial Markets Monitor June: a lot going on
An Investment Committee again! A month can pass quickly, especially if there is a lot going on in the markets. In light of recent market events (Italy, Turkey, Argentina), I was surprised that our risk stance has not changed since our last Investment Committee meeting. Obviously, it takes a lot to get us out of […]
US Fed tightens its monetary policy
The most important central bank of the world, the US Fed, increased the Fed funds rate on 21 March and also published projections for economic key indicators. Even though this does not sound like much, the implications for the markets are significant.
How does inflation work? – Part 2: Inflation drivers
There are many factors that may affect inflation. Also, the weights of certain factors may vary across countries. Take the development of the exchange rate, for example.
Inflation worries burdening stock exchanges – part 2: the macro perspective
Equity indices have undergone a global correction in the past days. The Dow Jones index has shed more than 10% from its January high. What is the macro-economic reason for the correction?
US central bank will start reducing bond holdings in October
The most important central bank in the world, the Federal Reserve of the USA, has announced a historic decision as a result of its FOMC meeting on 20 September: the central bank balance sheet, hugely inflated in the wake of the bond purchase programme, will be gradually reduced from October onwards. Generally speaking this is […]
My impressions from IMF meeting in Washington: Emerging markets “alive and kicking”
The spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund was held in Washington from 20 to 23 April. This event was the reason for an investor conference that I attended in order to get an idea of the status quo of the global economy as well as of risks and opportunities.
US central bank confirms trend reversal
We have seen a number of trend reversals this year, one of them being the end of the negative growth surprises. The forecast of economic growth and inflation are currently not subject to downwards revisions any longer.
Fed supports markets
The US central bank signalled the continuation of its loose monetary policy at its FOMC meeting on 27 April. This is remarkable given that along with the short-term stabilisation of the Chinese economy, this Fed policy is one of the most important reasons for the price rises of risky assets since February.
Interest rate lift-off – Stay cool
Following last week’s surprisingly strong employment report, the odds that the US Federal Bank will start raising its policy rate at the next FOMC-meeting in December jumped to almost 70%. Of course, 70% is still short of 100%, but most observers believe that something terrible must happen in the next four weeks to make the […]
Janet Yellen: Inflation Fighter
The US central bank Fed hinted at an increase of the Fed funds rate in December at its meeting on 28 October. A bias towards such an increase is referred to as tightening bias. If the economic data permit it, the Fed will increase the Fed funds rate from practically zero percent. The extent and […]
Will 2016 be “The Good”, “The Bad“ or „The Ugly“?
The beginning of Q4 is the time for an outlook on the coming year. At first we want to establish the determining factors for the economic activity and the markets. On this basis, we will introduce three scenarios.
All eyes on Washington: Will the Fed funds rate be raised?
Interest rate decision by the Fed Tomorrow, Thursday 17 September 2015, the federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US central bank Fed will be taking an important decision. Is the Fed funds rate to be raised or not? The financial markets have accorded this decision a particularly important role. After all, the rate hike […]
The return of volatility
Earlier this year the president of the ECB said we would have to get used to elevated levels of volatility. And it is true, the market environment has changed. The years 2009 to 2014 were subject to an asset price reflation regime. High rates of return were coupled with low volatility. This relationship has now […]
Turkey and the feeling of summer time sadness
We are almost approaching the end of the summer but it looks like we are back to April 2015 in Turkey. The election outcome and aftermath did not work as politicians had desired and the efforts to form a government have failed so far.
Emerging markets equities: no comeback at this point
Based on earnings expectations emerging markets equities are currently valued 27% below the price/earnings ratio of developed markets equities. The long term average of this discount is 19%. Closing the gap is a question whether the confidence of the markets in the earnings expectations is solid enough to facilitate a re-(e)valuation.
Corporate bonds with short maturities
Bond investors are faced with a difficult environment. Do corporate bonds offer the chance of a halfway decent yield? Stampfl: The statement that bond investors are faced with a difficult environment is actually an erroneous one. A balanced portfolio consisting of bonds from the peripheral countries and the core countries across all sectors would have […]
Strong Dollar and Turkey
In Turkey, the impact of the currency fluctuations are being discussed and even an ordinary Turk on the street knows what it means for the currency to depreciate. For example, during a cab ride, you may have a very deep economic discussion with the taxi driver about the dollar and the Turkish lira. This is […]
Macro data: Dynamics down
The dynamics of the economy and the markets have declined. Global economic growth is down on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the two most important trends of the past months (appreciation of the US dollar and falling oil price) have come to a halt, inflation is not falling anymore, and the US Fed has put a damper […]
Fed funds rate – a threat to the equity markets?
The US central bank, the Fed, is very likely – almost 90%, according to Fed funds futures – to raise the Fed funds rate this year. The expected rate hike has been one of the dominating topics on the financial markets for a year. The bursting of a mega bubble, rising pressure on fragile emerging […]
The confrontation of the doves
The most important central bank in the world, i.e. the US Fed, made an announcement yesterday that attracted a large deal of attention from investors. The bank withdrew its assurance to remain “patient” before the Fed funds rate would be increased. This paved the way for a possible abandonment of the zero interest rate policy, […]