All articles on the topic “Markets”
Gas Price Surge Driving up Electricity Prices and Fueling Inflation Concerns
Gas prices have soared in recent weeks. What are the reasons behind this? Will the planned increase in Norwegian gas supply bring the relief we have been longing for? Read more in our blog.
Has the real estate boom in China come to an end?
The economic boom of China has also been accompanied by a boom in the real estate industry over the past decades. The liquidity problems of the Chinese real estate developer Evergrande are heralding the end of the real estate boom in China.
German Bundestag election – decisions for the future
Germany is facing an exciting Bundestag election on 26 September 2021. The outcome is completely open, but it sets the course for economic policy. The successor of long-term Chancellor Angela Merkel will also influence decisions at European level.
Theranos: user-friendliness and/or technological progress
Theranos was founded in 2003 by Elizabeth Holmes. The rise and subsequent trouble of the laboratory diagnostics company illustrates that usability does not suffice for the success of product and business ideas if the technological progress cannot keep up.
20 Years of 9/11: Full Circle from Bush to Biden
Exactly 20 years ago, on 11 September 2001, the USA was shaken by the worst terrorist attacks in its history. The attacks on the World Trade Center in New York claimed the lives of 3,000 people. They changed world politics. The effects are still a big issue today – keyword Afghanistan.
European Forum Alpbach: Overcoming the Crisis with Energy Transition, Capital Markets Union and Digitalisation
“The Great Transformation”: This was this year’s Forum Alpbach’s overarching motto for the talks and panel discussions among the assembled top politicians, economic leaders and scientists from around the world. Partly on-site and partly online, between 18 August and 3 September a total of 4,134 participants from 62 countries discussed possible ways out of the corona pandemic crisis and global future scenarios.
Global economy running into headwind
The global economy is in the recovery phase of the cycle. Economic growth is well above the long-term trend, but headwinds have increased recently. What needs to happen to ensure that growth does not slow down? Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the prospects for the future.
Tourism Industry on the Path to Recovery in Summer, but Pre-Crisis Level Still a Long Way Off
The travel and tourism industry is continuing its recovery. The number of overnight stays increased noticeably in what is now the second Corona pandemic summer, and travel figures paint a similar picture. However, pre-Corona pandemic levels are still a long way off, and the recent strong spread of the delta variant of the virus is also an uncertainty factor.
Commodities in strong demand
Whether you want to buy a house or buy a car, many private consumers currently deal with soaring prices for materials and unpleasantly long delivery periods. This situation is directly reflected in commodity prices.
Germany’s economy recovering from slump
Germany’s economy is back on a growth path after the pandemic dip at the beginning of the year. While service providers and retailers benefit from the relaxation of the Corona measures, the industry is being held back by material shortages and supply bottlenecks. How does the German stock index (DAX) react?
How many chips are installed in a car?
Car manufacturers are under pressure to meet the sharply increased demand for new cars. Many production lines were closed in the lockdowns. This is why individual parts are only now being re-produced and there are supply bottlenecks. What do microchips have to do with this and why are used cars so expensive in the US?
Erste Asset Management financial markets outlook for the second half of 2021
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid recovery of the economy has mainly supported securities such as equities. But what happens next? Erste AM Managing Director Heinz Bednar and Head of Multi Asset Alexander Lechner explain how the second half of 2021 and especially our focus on sustainability will continue to develop in our outlook for the next six months.
Is this the end of the reflation trade?
Inflation peaked in the US and the eurozone in May and has declined from there. Long term yields fell and lowered real yields. How could this happen?
Oil prices climb to multi-year highs after OPEC negotiations fail
The rise in oil and energy prices is fueling concerns about a burgeoning inflation. Behind the failure of the latest OPEC negotiations is also a political competition for influence and power in the Gulf region.
Falling economic momentum is not bad news
One of the most important economic indicators, the global purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, fell in June compared to the previous month. Is that bad news for risky asset classes like stocks? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the most important scenarios.
5 years after the Brexit referendum: UK on the path to recovery in turbulent times
These days mark the 5th anniversary of the British vote to leave the European Union. How does the UK stand economically after the “Brexit”? What challenges still lie ahead for the country? What opportunities do investors have? Read more in today’s blog.
The Fed is a dove
Equities have been weaker in recent days. This is largely due to concerns that sooner-than-expected interest rate increases in the USA could be detrimental to the financial market. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains why in the most likely case scenario, this will not be happening in the foreseeable future.
G7 countries agree climate targets, vaccination programmes and China policy
With renewed vigour, the heads of state of the G7 group of leading industrialised nations recently agreed climate targets, vaccination programmes for poor countries and a common front against China at their eponymous summit, held in the British resort of Carbis Bay.
China bonds in demand for mixed funds
China as a third pole. The reasons why fund managers expect China government bonds in mixed funds to generate more return and at the same time provide better diversification.
Covid vaccinations: Apathy follows euphoria
If you ask around in your own circle of acquaintances, you will find that the vaccination coverage rate is now significant. In Austria, it seems, everyone who really wants a vaccination has already received at least a partial vaccination – regardless of prioritization, age or medical history. The EU vaccination rate lags about 6 weeks […]
Rapid recovery in the developed world
The global economy is caught between a strong recovery and inflation fears. Despite low risk premiums, Erste AM Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer continues to see opportunities for equities as long as bond yields rise less than corporate earnings growth rates. Read more in his blog analysis.
Financial Markets: robo investment vs. human judgment
It is impossible not to notice the rising interest in algorithm-based investing. Fund manager Mikuláš Splítek argues the case of whether a robo-advisor or human judgment is better to beat the market.
Sell in May and …
.. go away, but don’t forget to come back in September. This is an old stock market adage that most investors probably know. There are loads of those, and this is among the most popular ones. Our Head of Global Strategies & Research, Alexander Sikora-Sickl explains what’s behind it.
Global semiconductor shortage continues to pose challenge for automotive and electronics sectors
The global shortage of semiconductors is causing problems for car manufacturers and the computer industry. Trends such as the digitalisation of working life or autonomous driving are likely to increase demand even more. Technology shares are in demand.
Social impact via engagement
Impact investment More and more investors want to invest their money responsibly and sustainably – not only to create additional inflows, but also to create an “impact”. As a result, the demand for so-called impact funds has increased substantially in recent years. Especially young people, who until very recently had little interest in investment funds, […]
New turbulences in Turkey
Erste Asset Management fund manager Anton Hauser, specialist for emerging markets bonds, analyses the status quo of the Turkish financial markets after the surprising dismissal of the Turkish central bank governor by President Erdogan.
Hopes for upswing continue to drive oil and industrial metal prices higher
Hopes for an economic recovery, but also the latest inflation fears, have recently fuelled the price rally on the commodity markets, with prices for crude oil and industrial metals continuing to soar. Several metal prices recently rose to multi-year highs.
China 2021 – the year of the ox
2021 is the year of the ox, which is associated with strength, harvests and fertility. After the turbulent year 2020, there are good reasons to look forward to returning to normalcy and development in the year of the ox. This is particularly true for China.
EU Commission lowers growth forecasts for 2021, but is more optimistic for 2022
In view of the still rampant Corona pandemic, the EU Commission has recently lowered its growth forecasts for 2021. With the delays in some EU countries’ vaccination programmes, the lockdowns could also drag on, delaying the expected economic recovery, the Commission argues.
What is behind the skyrocketing performance of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has achieved an average performance of 142% p.a. in the past five years. Some criticise the high level of volatility but forget about the potential. Many wonder whether, after the dramatic increase, one could still enter the market or whether that ship has sailed. In the following article Crypto Asset Specialist Harald Egger discusses the reasons that have led to the rally of Bitcoin in recent months.
USA: Clear sailing for Joe Biden’s economic programme after winning Senate majority
After the Democrats’ success in the Senate run-off elections in the US State of Georgia, the party now has the de-facto majority in both chambers of Congress, and therefore US President-elect Joe Biden should soon have much more leeway for implementing his economic policy programmes.
Covid Vaccines – From Race to Chase
Covid vaccine distribution has begun in much of the developed world. Politicians, commentators and citizens criticize the slow start to immunizations. But like the Tour de France: What counts is not who wears the yellow jersey during the first stage, but who crosses the finish line first at the end. Three factors are crucial to that: vaccine supply, vaccine distribution and, most importantly, vaccination acceptance.
The best funds of 2020
A turbulent year at the stock exchange has come to a conciliatory end. Those who were invested in funds in 2020 were able to achieve increases in value despite the pandemic and lockdown. Read more about the best funds of 2020 in today’s blog.
Erste Asset Management regards economic recovery as driver of the capital markets in 2021
We are looking back on a turbulent investment year. After the slump in February and March, we saw a strong recovery on the markets almost across all asset classes. CEO Heinz Bednar and CIO Gerold Permoser give an outlook for the capital markets in 2021.
OPEC+ haggling over production restrictions at ongoing meeting
The eyes of the international business world are currently fixed on Vienna. At the OPEC headquarters in downtown Vienna, the oil cartel’s member states and its allies are currently haggling over production volumes, and thus the further development of oil prices, via video conference.
The free trade agreement RCEP – A historic milestone
At a time when Covid-19 is ravaging the global economy, 15 Asia-Pacific countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at a virtual Summit on November 15. The RCEP is a meaningful achievement for regional cooperation and a historic milestone in the globalization process.
Turkey: Erdogan combats crisis with new economic programme after change of staff
After unexpected replacements of the head of the central bank and the finance minister, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently declared war on the inflation and currency depreciation in his country with a new economic programme. In doing so, Erdogan is radically turning away from his previous economic policy line by relying on foreign investment and monetary stability.
COVID-19 Update: Moderna reports preliminary results from phase 3 vaccine trial
U.S. biotech company Moderna reported positive results from the first interim analysis of its Covid mRNA vaccine candidate. The IA found that of the 95 identified Covid cases in the study population 90 occurred in the placebo group, thus yielding a vaccine efficacy of 94,4%.
Covid Vaccine: Pfizer, BioNTech and the beginning of the end?
In a press release on November 9, Pfizer gave a first taste of the results of the Phase 3 study of the Covid vaccine, which was jointly developed with German biotech company BioNTech. With an estimated efficacy of 90% and the start of the vaccination campaign possibly as early as January 2021, there is light at the end of the tunnel. But some hurdles still remain.
OMV’s Climate Path 2050
Growing demand for energy and accelerating climate change pose immense challenges for the energy sector. The key lies in finding the balance between climate protection efforts, affordable energy, and reliable supply. In a guest commentary. Dr. Eric Schmiedchen explains OMV’s climate path.
Global economic slump less severe than expected, but still the worst recession in decades, according to IMF
According to current forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy should be able to handle the consequences of the corona pandemic somewhat better than has been feared. In its eagerly awaited global economic outlook for this year, the IMF now expects global economic output to decline by only 4.4 per cent. The IMF has thus adjusted its last forecast from June by 0.5 percentage points.
The new economic paradigm: cheap money and a very active State
The economic paradigm – the leitmotif, as it were – has only changed twice in the past 200 years: in the 1930s from liberalism to Keynesianism, and in the 1970s to monetarism. Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, we have noticed a new economic upheaval, which has now crystallised into a new paradigm as a consequence of the measures taken to fight the corona pandemic: without a name yet, this paradigm is characterised by cheap money and a very active role of the State.
Will interest rates remain low in the long term?
The interest rates seem to have been going one way for years – down. With the exception of a few corrections, the taboo has been broken for many years that bond yields should have to be positive all the time.
High Inflation – likely to emerge?
At the beginning of September, the FED announced a significant change in their policy: They officially announced the implementation of “average inflation targeting”. This allows to have a higher inflation rate for a period of time instead of being closely held to the target inflation rate of 2%.
Why did the FED announce this shift in its policy? Is inflation returning in the agenda? In this article, we intend to show the policy requirements for high(er) inflation.
New Prime Minister Suga wants to lead Japan out of the crisis with an old team and reforms
Japan officially entered a new era on Wednesday: As was expected, Japan’s new head of government Yoshihide Suga was elected Prime Minister by the majority of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), succeeding Shinzo Abe.
Are we heading for a secular stagnation?
When the economy is well, people are well. But just how well is the economy going to be in the coming years? Some economists believe the idea that we will be entering a secular stagnation – or have already entered it – to be a realistic scenario. What does that mean?
COVID-19 Update from the Investment Division: Russia to the Rescue?
Researchers from Moscow-based Gamaleya institute, an offshoot of the Russian Ministry of Health, published detailed phase 1/2 results of their COVID-19 vaccine in the Lancet. If true (remember that we are talking about Russia), these results imply that their vaccine is both effective and has a tolerable safety profile which would make it a strong contender in the international race to defeat COVID-19.
Tensions are rising in the run-up to the US elections
The US elections in November are not only important from a geopolitical perspective. The race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the presidency also influences events on the financial markets.
SARS-CoV-2 is mutating. Barely.
Since the start of the current pandemic researchers and policymakers have worried about possible mutations of SARS-CoV-2. A recent paper based on over 18 500 virus genome samples collected thus far concludes that these worries are unfounded.
The scary R-word: Should we worry about reinfection?
Recently, the first documented case of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 has apparently surfaced in Hong Kong. A day later, Belgium and the Netherlands also reported a reinfection each. Is it time to worry about acquired immunity and vaccine efficacy? There are three scenarios how this might turn out.