The market participants follow the current developments in supply bottlenecks in the industry and the rising inflation rates due to the sharp rise in energy and raw material prices.
Associated with this is the risk of stagflation and an earlier than expected rise in key interest rates.
The estimates for economic growth in the second half of 2021 have been revised dowwards. Global growth is expected for the second half of the year below the value for the second quarter. Estimates for inflation are risiing, and possible key rate hikes have also
been factored into yield curves.
The key question is: will these trends continue? The greatest downside risk for economic growth comes from rising energy prices and persistent bottlenecks in the manufacturing sector (production of components, transport). The base scenario remains the recovery scenario: the bottlenecks will decrease, while private consumption has a distinct catch-up potential. The
interaction between the labor market and central bank policy is decisive for the inflation outlook.
Development of bond yields of US- and EUR-Government-Bonds and EUR-Corporate-Bonds
Development of bond yields of European High-Yield-Bonds compared with global High-Yield-Bonds and Emerging-Markets-Corporate-Bonds (11/2016-11/2021)
The development of historic yields is not a reliable indicator for future developments of a specific asset category or asset class. The charts above do not include any fees or costs.
Ratio-Overview (more information and all risk notes can be found at www.erste-am.com)
Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.
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