Current market information and expert opinions đđđ
What’s happening on the stock markets? Which sectors and trends are currently popular on the market? Where is the global economy heading, and how are the latest economic developments affecting share prices? Here, our experts and fund managers provide answers to the most pressing questions for investors đ
The semiconductor industry is considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom. Investors therefore kept a close eye on the sector’s figures for the first three months of 2025. One thing became clear: the expansion of AI infrastructure continues to deliver good results for most chip companies â but the sword of Damocles in the form of impending US tariffs is still hanging over industry giants such as Nvidia & Co. Read more in today’s blog post.
Following the tariffs shock and the accompanying market turmoil, the deferral of said tariffs has led to a surprisingly rapid upturn on the equity markets. That being said, uncertainty remains high, even though the US reporting season has been positive so far. Read more in the market commentary by Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management.
The US government’s extensive tariff plans have been causing volatility on the stock markets since last week. Yesterday’s announcement of a 90-day pause for the new tariffs was met with relief by the markets â even though a further escalation between the US and China is on the horizon. We take a look at the current situation on the financial markets and analyse the possible consequences of an escalation in the trade conflict.
The current environment is very positive for the capital markets: strong growth, low inflation, supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and low volatilities, i.e. fluctuations. Also, the numerous risks have not had a significantly negative impact on prices. However, the phase of rising prices started as early as March 2009.
Capital markets recorded a positive year of 2017. The performance of the various asset classes was of the textbook variety: the higher the risk, the higher the return.
Earlier this week, we convened the last Investment Committee of 2017. The general risk appetite of the team has not changed vis-Ă -vis the previous month (from 78.85 percent to 79 percent on our 0 – 100 percent scale). The team continues to see the future optimistically, with a resulting ârisk onâ stance.
2017 is drawing to an end, and the bottom line is positive. The outcome is significantly better than we had expected. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has never expanded more quickly and especially concertedly than in 2017. Also, inflation has surprised on the downside, falling short yet again of the expectations held by central banks and analysts.
Certainly, the National Congress of the Communist Party of China held every five years in Beijing is an important political event, but this yearâs Party Congress was a milestone. It marked that a new era has begun in China. President Xi Jinping cemented his power further as Chinaâs paramount leader, a leader, who might rule the country on the coming decade, a leader, who has high ambitions.
The global economy is experiencing significant growth, and the emerging markets have felt the increased economic growth rates as well. Even in problematic countries such as Brazil or Russia, the situation has been picking up due to the increased oil price.
2017 has been another bumper year for global equities with the MSCI All Country Index gaining ca. 18% in the first ten months in dollar terms. November, however, has not started well for risky assets.
Driving through Beijing you will see megalomania without limits â in houses, traffic, and people. A trip in a tuk-tuk, which looks like a motorcycle on three wheels, allows you a short glance into the past. It is at these moments that the rift between rich and poor becomes obvious.
Venezuela is in a difficult situation. Hyperinflation describes the economic environment best. For 2017, the IMF estimates a consumer price inflation of 650% y/y, and for 2018, the estimate is 2,300%.
This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.
The Council of the European Central Bank pulled an impressive stunt at the monetary policy meeting on 26 October. ECB President Mario Draghi announced to reduce the extremely supportive monetary policy in the near future while âŚ
The events in Catalonia are a new disruptive political element on the capital markets. The basic question is whether the generally favourable environment for risky assets is sustainable.
Once a month the Investment Committee of Erste Asset Management convenes in order to discuss the medium-term market outlook. We are going to start a new blog, where we will report on what drives our investment professionals and what risks they see.
Asiaâs cities are growing and growing, presenting the urban infrastructure with great challenges. Thanks to technical progress, the relevance of environmentally friendly transport solutions is on the rise. Investors can benefit from this trend, as Gabriela Tinti points out in an op-ed article for the magazine âGlobal Investorâ.
The most important central bank in the world, the Federal Reserve of the USA, has announced a historic decision as a result of its FOMC meeting on 20 September: the central bank balance sheet, hugely inflated in the wake of the bond purchase programme, will be gradually reduced from October onwards. Generally speaking this is […]
Q3 is drawing to its end. Traditionally, this heralds the development of a strategy for the next year, an important part of which is the creation of scenarios. On the basis of the status quo, we have drawn up three further different scenarios in this blog entry.
The Trump administration should be keeping the financial markets on their toes in the coming weeks. Yet again, the issue is the government debt which will soon reach its statutory maximum.
Biotechnology shares have been among the top performers in the past ten years. After the above-average performance from 2010 to the beginning of 2015, hedge funds set off a consolidation that is now coming to an end. The NASDAQ biotechnology index, the most important barometer for biotech shares, has gained 25% in the year to date (source: Reuters Datastream, as of 31 August 2017).
The probability that there is another leg up for global equity markets is bigger than a significant correction in the near-term. However, there are no guarantees when it comes to investments in stocks in contrast to, as somebody said, the purchase of a vacuum cleaner. In case that the earnings momentum is cooling down or, for example, the macro-backdrop deteriorates, an extended period of equity markets going sideways or a correction cannot be excluded.
Economic growth has increased significantly on a global scale and is broadly supported. According to our preliminary estimate, global GDP recorded a growth rate of 3.7% from Q1 to Q2 (annualised). While the developed economies have presumably grown by 2.7%, the emerging economies posted a growth rate of 5.2%. In this article, we would like to take a closer look at the emerging markets on the basis of classic economic indicators.
Some ten years after the outbreak of the Great Recession, global economic growth is positive and broadly based, inflation is low in the developed economies and falling in important emerging economies, and monetary policies are very supportive, cautious, and predictable. At the same time, company earnings growth has increased significantly, and the volatilities of many asset prices are low. This environment is generally positive for risky asset classes.
I will be upfront about it: to me, the Taylor rule is still a helpful tool to assess the future monetary policy of the US central bank. However, it should not be used as blueprint without thinking it through. Instead, it should be seen as heuristic tool that helps structure oneâs analysis.
Since 2008, the key-lending rates in the USA seem to have been significantly too low as measured by the Taylor rule. With some economists blaming Alan Greenspanâs loose monetary policy as partially responsible for the financial crisis of 2008, the question is whether we are in for a dĂŠjĂ -vu.
Having defined and explained various management styles in equity management in part 1, we will now have a look at the specific styles and their return/risk ratio over time.
The US central bank has embarked on a cycle of interest rate hikes. The question is: by how much will the interest rates increase still, and at what point will it reach a level detrimental to the economy, where equities should be regrouped into asset classes less sensitive to the economic cycle?
A clear sense of style is not only important in fashion, but more and more so in equity management as well. But what does âstyleâ mean in equity management? Do stylistic preferences change over time, like in fashion? If so, what triggers those changes? Questions upon questions, but before we go into detail in part 2 of this series, let us first clarify what we mean by style(s).
It is almost impossible to speak with fund managers and not address the economy or monetary policy. Why is that so? This blog entry will try to answer the question on the basis of data from the US equity market from 1950 onwards.
Volatility has increased on the markets. The main reason for this has not occurred often in the past years: statements by the central bankers according to which the extremely expansive monetary policy will be reeled in. Are we going through a trend reversal?
China has been increasingly opening up to the global market. Last year the Renminbi was taken into the currency basket of the International Monetary Fund in October 2016. Now, another step towards liberalisation has followed. China has cleared A-shares for international trade via trading platforms.
The IFO business climate index calculated by the Munich-based IFO Institute is regarded as the most important German economic indicator. At 115.1, the value released for June last week was the highest since the launch in January 1991. It was also clearly above the value that had been expected by the financial analysts on average. The signs for substantial economic growth in Germany seem favourable.
Shares (equities) and equity funds â the same or not? Only a small minority of Austrians invest directly or indirectly (via equity funds) in shares. Is it the fear of losses or the lack of knowledge about this asset class that make investors shy away from it?
Author: Christin Bahr, Product Management Securities Erste Group It has been half a year since the launch of the new hybrid bond fund. Reason enough for us to talk to Roman Swaton, Senior Fundmanager.
The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?
Last Thursday, incriminating video and audio tapes emerged that linked current President Michel Temer to bribery. The accusations have thrown Brazil into a deep political crisis, and the capital markets have lost massively.
After the ballots were counted on 16 April 2017, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported that “Yes” had won by securing 51.4% of the votes, which was later also confirmed by the Electoral Commission. Serious concerns were raised by the OSCE. It is also important to note that the referendum took place during a âstate of emergencyâ. That is to say, in a highly repressive climate in which the President and the government controlled the media, jailed critical journalists and leaders of pro-Kurdish parliamentary opposition, and arbitrarily detained and prosecuted the Presidentâs opponents. The result of the referendum has paved the way for the most controversial changes that Turkey has faced in its history.
Austria celebrates the 300th birthday of Maria Theresa. She was born on 13 May 1717 in Vienna. It was her who founded the Vienna stock exchange in 1771 on the basis of an imperial patent (see image), after an earlier, failed attempt in 1761. Even though a lot has changed politically, economically, and technically since then, the eventful history of the Vienna stock exchange is still very instructive for every investor.
The spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund was held in Washington from 20 to 23 April. This event was the reason for an investor conference that I attended in order to get an idea of the status quo of the global economy as well as of risks and opportunities.
The elections are over. The next President of France will be Emmanuel Macron. This strengthens the camp of the liberal EU supporters. What does this result mean for the capital markets?
Who has not heard of the old stock exchange rule âSell in May and go awayâ â sometimes complemented by âbut remember to come back in Septemberâ. We had a closer look at this adage and have analysed the performance on the global stock exchanges over the past 48 years.
Economic growth in the Eurozone has embarked on a clear upward trend. At the same time, the fear of falling wages and prices has disappeared for now. The worries over a possible break-up of the European Union have also eased. Against this backdrop, the ECB President Draghi issued a slightly more optimistic growth forecast yet again on 27 April at the press conference of the European Central Bank. This is another tiny step indicating a possible reduction of the monetary support in the medium term.
A âYesâ to Erdoganâs planned constitutional amendment in Turkey would constitute a double-edged sword for investors: the planned presidential system could mean a short-term relief for the markets and for the economy. However, in the long run, this scenario harbours big risks. That being said, a âNoâ would not help investors either.
The markets were consolidating in March. The global equity index, the spreads for credit risk, and the yields of risk-free government bonds have been going sideways. Before that, the risky asset classes had recorded remarkable price increases, while risk-free bonds had incurred losses. Has the so-called reflation trade, i.e. the positioning towards rising nominal economic […]
Author: Anton HauserSenior Fundmanager Emerging Market Bonds Three and a half years after introduction, the Czech National Bank decided today to remove its 27 CZK/EUR currency floor. Many investors were expecting this decision. Indeed, this trade is currently one of the most popular ones among investors. As expected, the Czech koruna appreciated slightly against […]
The US central bank Fed increased the Fed funds rate last Wednesday. The risky asset markets reacted to the move with an increase. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated. How can that be explained?
It is as difficult to remain invested in a bull market as it is to leave a bear market. After all, investors are risk-averse. Taking into account the four most important categories for the assessment of the attractiveness of asset classes â valuation, liquidity, positioning, and growth â one would conclude that the most important driving factor for the markets builds on the last one.
