Articles about “USA”
For some time valid: Elevated recession risks and restrictive monetary policy
The central banks want to achieve their long-term inflation target of 2%. In order to achieve this goal, they have raised key interest rates and are implementing a restrictive monetary policy. The higher key interest rates will weaken economic growth and also the labour market. Whether this can be achieved without a recession or whether there will be a “soft landing” is currently the subject of heated debate.
“Green Rush” – The Inflation Reduction Act
The Inflation Reduction Act recently passed by the US Senate is intended to get the USA back on track in terms of climate protection. By 2030, 369 billion US dollars are to flow into renewable energies through various channels.
Very tight labor market in the USA
Many economic indicators point to weakening economic momentum. Meanwhile, the US labor market continues to be very robust, which recently mitigated the immediate risks of recession in the United States.
The hour of the hawks
In the US, interest rate hikes to a level of 3% by the end of 2023 have become likely. When will the European Central Bank follow? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the interest rate policies of the central banks.
Soaring Oil Prices may Accelerate Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels
After the oil price climbed to its highest level since 2008 in the previous week, the countries want to end their dependence on Russian oil and natural gas supplies.
The crisis in Ukraine
The risk of an escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia, Ukraine and NATO has risen further in recent days.
Stock markets off to a bumpy start in 2022
Inflation has risen sharply and the first interest rate hikes are expected from the Federal Reserve in the USA. What impact could this have on stocks?
10 theses for 2022
Waves of infections will continue to influence economic activity and the markets. What will happen in China, what are the inflation risks and will it be volatile? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer has drawn up 10 theses for the year 2022.
Pandemic year three: what are the challenges ahead?
We are now into the third year of the pandemic. Since the spring 2020 collapse, economic activity and markets have shown exceptional resilience. This is not to be taken for granted. After all, the list of potential negative influences (“challenges”) is long.
Investors bought the dip. Again.
Just when it looked like a quiet end to the year on the stock markets, the emergence of Omicron shook investor confidence and led to a sell-off lasting several days. How has market optimism evolved since then? Our stock expert Tamás Menyhárt gives an outlook.
Inflation at its peak – what are the reasons?
At 5.2% y/y, consumer price inflation for the OECD region reached the highest value in October since 1997. Has inflation peaked, or are we at the outset of a sustained period of high inflation?
Inflationary Boom – A thin red line towards welfare
The global view on inflation has turned completely since Spring 2020. While low inflation has been an issue between the Great Financial Crisis and the start of the pandemic, multi-year-highs in inflation were reached in Spring 2021. What will happen next?
Network Outage and Whistleblower give Facebook Critics new Fuel for Fire
Two nearly simultaneous events surrounding social network behemoth Facebook have recently directed public attention towards the network’s impact and power, giving Facebook critics new momentum: After an outage of the most important Facebook services last Monday that lasted several hours, former Facebook employee and whistleblower Frances Haugen made serious accusations against the company before the US Senate the following day.
Theranos: user-friendliness and/or technological progress
Theranos was founded in 2003 by Elizabeth Holmes. The rise and subsequent trouble of the laboratory diagnostics company illustrates that usability does not suffice for the success of product and business ideas if the technological progress cannot keep up.
Falling economic momentum is not bad news
One of the most important economic indicators, the global purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, fell in June compared to the previous month. Is that bad news for risky asset classes like stocks? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the most important scenarios.
Has gold lost its shimmer?
After a strong increase in the last 5 years, the gold price has weakened recently. Will demand for the precious metal increase again?
USA: Clear sailing for Joe Biden’s economic programme after winning Senate majority
After the Democrats’ success in the Senate run-off elections in the US State of Georgia, the party now has the de-facto majority in both chambers of Congress, and therefore US President-elect Joe Biden should soon have much more leeway for implementing his economic policy programmes.
The free trade agreement RCEP – A historic milestone
At a time when Covid-19 is ravaging the global economy, 15 Asia-Pacific countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at a virtual Summit on November 15. The RCEP is a meaningful achievement for regional cooperation and a historic milestone in the globalization process.
Global economic slump less severe than expected, but still the worst recession in decades, according to IMF
According to current forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy should be able to handle the consequences of the corona pandemic somewhat better than has been feared. In its eagerly awaited global economic outlook for this year, the IMF now expects global economic output to decline by only 4.4 per cent. The IMF has thus adjusted its last forecast from June by 0.5 percentage points.
Trade conflict between China and the USA – Update from the Investment Division
The trade conflict between China and the USA is gaining further momentum. In our opinion, this should also be seen against the background of the approaching presidential election campaign.
Corporate earnings provide tailwind – Update from the Investment Division
The surprisingly good corporate earnings provided a tailwind & the price of gold continued to rise. Update from the Investment Division.
TikTok ban in the USA – Update from the Investment Division
TikTok is the focus of the dispute between the US and China & corporate bonds posted their best month in June. Update from the Investment Division.
„I just can’t get enough“– Update from the Investment Division
In one hit the Black Eyed Peas sang “I just can’t get enough”. Even governments and central banks seem to have fallen in love with economic stimulus packages. Update from the Investment Division.
Losses for risk investments – Update from the Investment DivisionOutlook.
The markets for risky assets ended last week with losses. The main reason was the escalating tensions between China and the US. Update from the Investment Division.
Increasing new infections – Update from the Investment Division
After the easing measures new global infections continue to rise. The stock markets remain unimpressed by this. Update from the Investment Division.
Trading session in Asia – Update from the Investment Division
Asian stock exchanges traded significantly higher & new infections with the Covid-19 virus reach new record levels. Update from the Investment Division.
US Consumer Confidence – Update from the Investment Division
Consumer confidence is rising in the USA. An index that measures consumer confidence is the largest growth and has clearly exceeded expectations for the index. Update from the Investment Division
Rollercoaster ride for markets – Update from the Investment Division
“Rollercoaster ride continues”: Most stock exchanges were clearly in the red & the markets ignore the new infections in China. Update from the Investment Division
Dividend shares in times of corona – what investors should pay attention to
In times like Corona, investors fear not only price losses but also loss of dividend payments. What investors should pay attention to and how have dividend shares been held so far?
Decoupling the real economy – Update from the Investment Division
Stock market prices have risen sharply despite the crisis, but the gap between the financial and the real economy continues to widen. Update from the Investment Division.
„Ain’t no Mountain High Enough“ – Update from the Investment Division
“Ain’t no Mountain High Enough”: The mountains of debt that governments are accumulating know hardly any limits at present. Update from the Investment Division.
China’s recovery trend continues
As the „first in, first out” country of the COVID-19 crisis, China is gradually returning to normal. The April activity numbers indicate that China’s domestic economy has been resilient and has continued to recover from the COVID-19 disruption.
Security law for Hong Kong – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday? Politics 1 – Further tensions between the USA and China. As reported China is attempting to implement a national security law in Hong Kong. Since the UK handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997 the concept “One state, two systems” is in place. That granted Hong Kong a far-reaching autonomous […]
Positive start of the week – Update from the Investment Division
Our young swans are allowed to go back to school and Hong Kong stabilized despite tensions with China. Update from the Investment Division.
Postitive end of the week – Update from the Investment Division
The end of the week on the stock markets was more positive than the beginning of last week. Update from the Investment Division.
Slow economic recovery – Update from the Investment Division
On Friday the markets for risky assets received a double boost. The reason for this is a rapid economic recovery after the sharp containment measures. Update from the Investment Division.
Trade deal between USA and China – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? The global equity markets closed yesterday in positive territory. The US markets could see gains of ca. 1%. In Europe the gains were ca. 1,5%. In the last days the trade conflict between the USA and China overshadowed the markets once again. However, from that corner came positive news […]
ECB bond purchases unconstitutional – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Yesterday the German Constitutional Court has ruled that the Asset Purchase Program of the European Central Bank partly violates the German constitution. Via that program bonds of more than two trillion Euros were purchased since 2015 to bring liquidity to the markets and the economy. As the German constitutional […]
Living in volatile times – Coronavirus
The update of our Investment Division What has occurred since yesterday In his address to the National Union of South African Students in Capetown 1966 in regards to the US-American civil rights movement Robert F. Kennedy said the following: „There is a Chinese curse that says: “May he live in interesting times” If we want […]
Gold with traces of rust
Hardly anyone can escape the fascination of gold. But, what is the economic function of gold, and how does it perform socially and environmentally?
Positive bottom line for our funds in 2019
Only a few weeks left and then 2019 is history. Thanks to booming stock exchanges and yet another increase in bond prices. Investors can look back on a pleasing balance sheet.
Demand in the oil market will not lose momentum until 2030
Against the background of the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, the international energy agency predicts a robust demand for oil by 2025. Thereafter demand-dynamics will decline sharply due to increase in energy-efficient vehicles.
A recovering global economy?
The recovery of the world economy has become more likely: First AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer gives an outlook on whether the trend reversal is done.
Automotive sector Facts & Figures
Read more articles from this issue of our ESG letter here. *ESG stands for Environmental, Social and Governance“ – These are the three broad categories according to which companies are examined in sustainable investment. Legal note: Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.
No long-term consequences after brief panic in oil market
In the previous week crude oil prices have been the highest since 1991. How is the struggle for stable prices on the oil market going? First AM resource expert Alexander Weiss explains the current situation.
IFA: Smartphone manufacturers pin their hopes on new standard
New smartphones will dominate the international radio exhibition in Berlin until the middle of this week. What does the current market look like & what does that mean for technology stocks?
Weak growth and risks
The recent confrontation between the USA and China in the areas of trade and currency management triggered temporary losses for risky asset classes such as equities. Are the negative implications of an ongoing USA-China conflict strong enough to set off a decline or even a recession?
Arguments for a continuation of China’s growth story
Why the trade war with the US does not mean the end of the development story and what speaks for the continuation of China’s growth story.
Outlook for the second half of 2019
Many asset classes recorded significant gains. At the same time, the falling tendency of numerous economic indicators has suggested a slowdown in GDP growth. How do these two go together?
Pesticides, Animal Feed and Meat Consumption – The Food Revolution
The last article in our dossier on “Meat”: What role do animal feed and pesticides play for the environment and the climate?