Articles about “outlook”
Market outlook 2025: what opportunities and challenges we can expect for next year
2025 brings significant political changes: First and foremost, a new (and at the same time old) US president, whose plans and intentions are not yet entirely clear. In Europe, meanwhile, we are facing economic challenges, but also opportunities due to possible interest rate cuts by the ECB. What can we expect from the coming year and how can investors position themselves? Read more about this in today’s blog post.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Capital markets outlook 2024: good opportunities in the US election year
After a difficult market year in 2022, many asset classes performed much better this year. The outlook for the coming year 2024 is also positive – the central banks’ turnaround in interest rates has brought about a return to normality on the bond market and, with the rise in yields, is also opening up new opportunities for investors. At the same time, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in particular pose a challenge. With the improved yield opportunities for bonds, mixed funds are also coming back into focus.
Market commentary: What will the new year 2023 bring?
In the past year, numerous trouble spots preoccupied the markets. In his market commentary, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, gives an outlook on what 2023 might bring.
Stock markets off to a bumpy start in 2022
Inflation has risen sharply and the first interest rate hikes are expected from the Federal Reserve in the USA. What impact could this have on stocks?
Investing – a long term story
We have seen some extraordinary years speaking about equity and multi asset performance. Interest rates were low, volatility – representing the average daily price changes – was comparably low. What is the situation today?
10 theses for 2022
Waves of infections will continue to influence economic activity and the markets. What will happen in China, what are the inflation risks and will it be volatile? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer has drawn up 10 theses for the year 2022.
Pandemic year three: what are the challenges ahead?
We are now into the third year of the pandemic. Since the spring 2020 collapse, economic activity and markets have shown exceptional resilience. This is not to be taken for granted. After all, the list of potential negative influences (“challenges”) is long.
Investors bought the dip. Again.
Just when it looked like a quiet end to the year on the stock markets, the emergence of Omicron shook investor confidence and led to a sell-off lasting several days. How has market optimism evolved since then? Our stock expert Tamás Menyhárt gives an outlook.
Inflation at its peak – what are the reasons?
At 5.2% y/y, consumer price inflation for the OECD region reached the highest value in October since 1997. Has inflation peaked, or are we at the outset of a sustained period of high inflation?
Stagflation – a serious risk scenario
In recent months, the risk of stagflation (the simultaneous occurrence of economic stagnation and inflation) has increased. Without the pandemic, output would be higher and inflation lower: bottlenecks in production and logistics have slowed economic activity and caused prices in the goods sector to rise sharply.
Erste Asset Management financial markets outlook for the second half of 2021
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid recovery of the economy has mainly supported securities such as equities. But what happens next? Erste AM Managing Director Heinz Bednar and Head of Multi Asset Alexander Lechner explain how the second half of 2021 and especially our focus on sustainability will continue to develop in our outlook for the next six months.
Corporate earnings provide tailwind – Update from the Investment Division
The surprisingly good corporate earnings provided a tailwind & the price of gold continued to rise. Update from the Investment Division.
Shares in positive territory – Update from the Investment Division
The US stock market was lifted by technology stocks such as Apple and Microsoft & earnings growth so far is -10.5%. Update from the Investment Division.
TikTok ban in the USA – Update from the Investment Division
TikTok is the focus of the dispute between the US and China & corporate bonds posted their best month in June. Update from the Investment Division.
FOMC Meeting – Update from the Investment Division
Yesterday, the Fed was the focus of attention & the increase in Covid 19 infections could put further pressure on the economy. Update from the Investment Division.
„I just can’t get enough“– Update from the Investment Division
In one hit the Black Eyed Peas sang “I just can’t get enough”. Even governments and central banks seem to have fallen in love with economic stimulus packages. Update from the Investment Division.
Losses for risk investments – Update from the Investment DivisionOutlook.
The markets for risky assets ended last week with losses. The main reason was the escalating tensions between China and the US. Update from the Investment Division.
EU summit: Agreement on billion-euro aid package – Update from the Investment Division
The EU heads of state and government have agreed on a billion euro aid package. It is the largest in the history of the EU. Update from the Investment Division.
Marathon talks on EU Corona aid packages – Update from the Investment Division
The weekend was marked by marathon talks between EU leaders. So far, no agreement has been reached. Update from the Investment Division.
Canada’s central bank – Update from the Investment Division
Canada’s central bank has left the key interest rate unchanged and no change in monetary policy stance is expected at today’s meeting of the Governing Council.
Stock markets in the corona crisis – Update from the Investment Division
The stock markets continue to be caught between the economic recovery on the one hand and the rising number of new infections in the USA on the other. Update from the Investment Division.
Increasing new infections – Update from the Investment Division
After the easing measures new global infections continue to rise. The stock markets remain unimpressed by this. Update from the Investment Division.
Trading session in Asia – Update from the Investment Division
Asian stock exchanges traded significantly higher & new infections with the Covid-19 virus reach new record levels. Update from the Investment Division.
US Consumer Confidence – Update from the Investment Division
Consumer confidence is rising in the USA. An index that measures consumer confidence is the largest growth and has clearly exceeded expectations for the index. Update from the Investment Division
„Ain’t no Mountain High Enough“ – Update from the Investment Division
“Ain’t no Mountain High Enough”: The mountains of debt that governments are accumulating know hardly any limits at present. Update from the Investment Division.
Security law for Hong Kong – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday? Politics 1 – Further tensions between the USA and China. As reported China is attempting to implement a national security law in Hong Kong. Since the UK handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997 the concept “One state, two systems” is in place. That granted Hong Kong a far-reaching autonomous […]
Positive start of the week – Update from the Investment Division
Our young swans are allowed to go back to school and Hong Kong stabilized despite tensions with China. Update from the Investment Division.
Hands remain shaky – Update from the Investment Division
The “Black Swan” is what stock market experts call an unexpected event and the daily news continues to influence events on the stock markets. Update from the Investment Division
Postitive end of the week – Update from the Investment Division
The end of the week on the stock markets was more positive than the beginning of last week. Update from the Investment Division.
Musk launches Tesla production – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since the yesterday ? Elon Musk has always been a colorful character. Until now, he could also adorn himself with the fact that his products help save the world. Especially the Tesla electric cars. Yesterday he added another chapter to his extraordinary story by announcing that he will resume production at the […]
Slow economic recovery – Update from the Investment Division
On Friday the markets for risky assets received a double boost. The reason for this is a rapid economic recovery after the sharp containment measures. Update from the Investment Division.
Trade deal between USA and China – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? The global equity markets closed yesterday in positive territory. The US markets could see gains of ca. 1%. In Europe the gains were ca. 1,5%. In the last days the trade conflict between the USA and China overshadowed the markets once again. However, from that corner came positive news […]
Fiscal- and monetary policies – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Gus Backus celebrated in the 1960s some successes in the German Pop music charts. It is remarkable that in the 50s he also scored two top ten hits in the USA. In the chorus in one of his songs he sings: “Who should pay that, who ordered that, who […]
ECB bond purchases unconstitutional – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Yesterday the German Constitutional Court has ruled that the Asset Purchase Program of the European Central Bank partly violates the German constitution. Via that program bonds of more than two trillion Euros were purchased since 2015 to bring liquidity to the markets and the economy. As the German constitutional […]
„Rough, nice and easy“ – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since the long weekend? The song „Proud Mary“was written by John Fogerty, the front man of the rock band Creedence Clearwater Revivial. There are many cover versions of this song. The best known is probably from Tina Turner. That version starts with the line “…we’re gonna take the beginning of this song […]
Losses at beginning of week – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since the long weekend? Last week began on a positive note in the markets for risk assets. The US leading index, S&P500, gained 3.6% from Monday to Wednesday. This was triggered by the following positive news: In a study, the drug Remdesivir showed success in treating COVID-19 patients. The US Federal Reserve’s […]
Argentina cries (again) – Update from the Investment Division
Argentina is crying (again): This time not for Eva Peron – but Argentina’s plans for debt restructuring are meeting with resistance. Update from the Investment Division.
Upward trend at the beginning of the week – Update from the Investment Division
At the beginning of the week stock markets continue the upward trend of the previous week and the WTI oil price falls in double digits to a multi-year low. What will we see this week?
Stock market rally– Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Markets Stock markets continued to rally yesterday. Europe was up slightly by 0.65%. USA clearly in positive territory at approx. 3%. Asia is slightly in negative territory as of this morning. The oil price fell back down to USD 20.30 (WTI). Gold remained strong at USD 1720 per ounce. […]
Easter weekend with a difference – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since last Friday ? This Easter weekend was quite different compared to other Easter weekends of the past. Even if our countries will be on the forefront to loosen the lock-down over the next months not much could be felt from any resurrection yet. At least the OPEC-countries and their allies including […]
Reduction in Covid-19 deaths – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred over the weekend ? On Friday and also over the weekend some movement happened in the talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia about possible oil production cuts. After the last talks of OPEC+ about a month ago ended without an agreement between those two countries Saudi Arabia increased the oil production unilaterally. […]
Increasing oil price – Update from the Investment Division
Yesterday the rise in oil prices was particularly noteworthy in the markets. What do rising oil prices mean for the global economy?
Our update from the Investment Division.
Positive summary of last week – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred over the weekend? Equity markets had a good week. The US-equity index S&P 500 gained + 10,3%. Also the European markets gained significantly. The EuroStoxx 50 gained 7,5%. A bit negative were the losses on Friday (S&P 500 – 3,4%, EuroStoxx 50 – 4,2%). Volatility in the markets remained on a higher […]
For 3 day win streak – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Global equity markets closed yesterday the third day in a row with strong gains. The US leading equity index increased by 6,2%. The European exchanges could see gains of 1% to 3%. The credit risk margins für High Yield Corporate Bonds decreased again considerably. Also on the markets where […]
“Mr. Market” two positive days in a row – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Two positive days in a row on the American stock markets. Something we saw the last time on 11. + 12.2020. Mr. Market was in a good mood over the last two days. After the US-American equity index S&P500 gained almost 9% on Tuesday it increased also yesterday by […]
Bull movement – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Bull movement. Prices of risky asset classes, e.g. equity increased. Of course the question remains if it is just a short, technical upward spurt or a stable base. The reason for the better mood in the market is the agreement in the USA on a USD 2000 billion stimulus […]
Father of value investing – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Benjamin Graham focused on fundamental equity analysis and became widely known as the “father of value investing”. Equity should only be purchased at a discount to its fundamental value. In his book “The Intelligent Investor” Graham creates a character called Mr. Market, a fellow who turns up every day […]
The ordinary becomes special – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? Sometimes the ordinary becomes something special. To prove the validity of this heuristic, we will use the database of our Bloomberg terminal once again. On the 24,060 trading days of the leading US index S&P500 since 1928, the average daily change has been +0.02%. In contrast, for almost a […]
Financial Markets Monitor September – conclusion: cautiously optimistic
As long as the underlying investor sentiment remains positive and investor confidence does not tilt, we are optimistic about the autumn on the capital markets. Find out more about the outlook for the global financial markets in our new blog.
Inflation: a general overview – Part 1
At the moment the environment on the markets is very supportive. The economy is booming, the big central banks are still buying government bonds on aggregate and are thus keeping yields low, and the tax reform in the USA has improved the sentiment further over the past weeks. In addition, most asset managers agree on the status quo. Given this background, people ask “when will the party end?”. An increase in inflation is (one of) the usual suspect(s).