Erste Asset Management

Argentina cries (again) – Update from the Investment Division

Argentina cries (again) – Update from the Investment Division
Argentina cries (again) – Update from the Investment Division
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What has occurred since yesterday ?

Argentina cries, but this time not for Eva Peron. Last week the country announced a plan to restructure its foreign currency debt. That plan lays out the restructuring of debt with consent of the creditors. With that step it should be avoided that Argentina slides into bankruptcy for the ninth time (since 1827, 1890, 1951, 1956, 1982, 1989, 2001, and 2014). The restructuring proposal includes the avoidance of all debt obligations for the next three years and cuts interest payments by 62 per cent.

Also on the developed markets volatility came back again. Due to the strong price decrease of crude oil the equity markets decreased. The US-American equity index S&P 500 lost 3% compared to the day before. Also the European markets closed 3% to 4% in negative territory. Yields for investment grade government bonds decreased slightly. Currently the 10Y yield of US-Treasuries is at 0,58% and German Bunds at – 0,45%.

The oil price was highly volatile. After the future contracts for May expired also the prices for future contracts with a delivery of crude oil of the standard brand WTI in June decreased significantly. The future contracts traded at ca. USD 20 and dropped to ca. USD 11.

A positive surprise was the ZEW indicator. That index is published by the ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung. Centre for European Economic Research).  On a monthly basis experts from banks, insurance companies and finance departments of large corporations are asked for their assessment and forecasts in regards to important financial markets data. Whereas the current assessment of these experts was pessimistic, they are remarkably more positive about their expectations of the future developments. According to the ZEW the current situation compares to the April and May 2009 and the financial markets experts seem to recognize light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Legal note:
Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.

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