What has occurred since yesterday ?
Sometimes the ordinary becomes something special. To prove the validity of this heuristic, we will use the database of our Bloomberg terminal once again. On the 24,060 trading days of the leading US index S&P500 since 1928, the average daily change has been +0.02%. In contrast, for almost a month (since 24.02.20 to be precise) there have only been three days where the index moved less than 1.7%. Yesterday was the first ordinary day in a long time, with the market closing up by only 0.47%. To put it another way: “at least yesterday the financial markets were a little slower again”.
European government bonds were also consistently up yesterday. Following the announcement of additional purchase programs by the European Central Bank, risk premiums for bonds from the peripheral countries, especially Italy, significantly declined. Gold also made gains yesterday. Crude oil rose by more than 21%, which was the highest daily gain ever (markets did not slow down everywhere).
What will we be observing in the coming days ?
At this point, today we would like to refer to the excellent outlook from our colleague, Gerhard Winzer, in the latest blog “Coronacession” (English version should be available shortly and will be uploaded on Sharepoint).
Our dossier on coronavirus with analyses: https://blog.en.erste-am.com/dossier/coronavirus/
Prognoses are no reliable indicator for future performance.