Articles about “markets”
Investment View | February 2025
What’s happening on the markets? In our Investment View, the experts of our Investment Division regularly provide insights of current market events and their opinion on the various asset classes.
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Soft landing beats political uncertainty
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
Market commentary: What will the second half of 2024 bring?
The second half of 2024 has already kicked off on the financial markets – but what can investors expect from it? After expectations of interest rate cuts in the US were pushed back further and further in the first half of the year, the scope for the US Federal Reserve could increase again in the remainder of the year. The main focus is likely to be on upcoming political decisions – which could also lead to greater fluctuations.
Capital markets outlook 2024: good opportunities in the US election year
After a difficult market year in 2022, many asset classes performed much better this year. The outlook for the coming year 2024 is also positive – the central banks’ turnaround in interest rates has brought about a return to normality on the bond market and, with the rise in yields, is also opening up new opportunities for investors. At the same time, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in particular pose a challenge. With the improved yield opportunities for bonds, mixed funds are also coming back into focus.
Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?
“Higher for longer” has become the mantra of the powerful central bankers in recent months. Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive longer than originally expected. Regardless of whether the major central banks will follow up with a final interest rate step in autumn, the interest rate peak has probably been reached and “the worst” is behind us.
How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
In line with the surprisingly strong economic indicators in the US, government bond yields have risen significantly in recent months. This is putting pressure on the prices of many classes of securities and intensifying discussions about how restrictive interest rate policy really is. Could the higher level of yields make the central bank’s job easier in the form of further interest rate hikes?
Attack on Israel: Reaction of the markets
The terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas last weekend dominates the international headlines. The markets are reacting to this with price declines, but the extent of the movements has so far been limited.
Turnaround in the Energy Market: Power Companies Raise Forecasts, Oil Companies’ Profits Drop
The decline in crude oil prices has led to a trend reversal in the energy market this year: while many power companies have recently raised their profit forecasts, the major oil companies suffered massively from the recent drop in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, in the effort to reach climate targets, the trend toward renewable energies continues unabate
Immaculate disinflation: Is that possible?
Can price stability, i.e. inflation of 2%, be achieved without a recession? The further decline in inflation in the US in June has raised expectations for this favourable scenario. However, a look in the rear-view mirror calls for caution. In the past, a central bank-induced decline in inflation has often been accompanied by a recession.
Recession, inflation, key interest rates: Economic outlook for the second half of the year
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
Where is the recession?
The global economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, inflation remains too high, which is why central banks will continue to pursue a restrictive monetary policy. Although growth indicators are good to strong, there are therefore increased risks of recession.
Banking problems support share prices
Since the banking problems in the US emerged in March, share prices have risen and expectations for future key interest rates have fallen significantly. However, inflation dynamics remain the most important factor for the markets, but unfortunately also one that is difficult to assess.
Ten topics for 2023
The previous year was marked by unexpectedly high inflation and rapid key interest rate hikes – but what will the new year bring?
In his article, Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer presents ten topics that could be particularly relevant for the financial markets in 2023.
Market commentary: What will the new year 2023 bring?
In the past year, numerous trouble spots preoccupied the markets. In his market commentary, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, gives an outlook on what 2023 might bring.
For some time valid: Elevated recession risks and restrictive monetary policy
The central banks want to achieve their long-term inflation target of 2%. In order to achieve this goal, they have raised key interest rates and are implementing a restrictive monetary policy. The higher key interest rates will weaken economic growth and also the labour market. Whether this can be achieved without a recession or whether there will be a “soft landing” is currently the subject of heated debate.
Investment update: Increased volatility on the stock markets
The financial markets started this week with high volatility. The US leading index S&P 500 suffered a loss of more than 2% since Monday, while the European index EuroStoxx 600 is almost 3% lower. What will we observe in the coming days?
Interview: What do the sanctions imposed on Russia mean for our funds?
What are the effects of the sanctions imposed on Russia on our funds? Interview with Alexandre Dimitrov, Senior Fund Manager with more than 20 years of experience and special field of expertise: equity markets Russia and CEE.
Investment Update: First steps to interest rate hikes and volatility in the stock markets
Stocks posted significant gains on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank would begin raising interest rates this month. Stock markets interpreted this as a positive signal in the sense that the threat to growth posed by the war in Ukraine did not justify a change of course in monetary policy at the moment.
The impact of the war in Ukraine
We want to highlight the possible impact of the war in Ukraine on investment decisions. In short, the conflict reinforces already existing trends. In addition, the global recovery scenario is still holding, but recession risks in Europe have increased.
Ukraine conflict: sanctions against Russia
Last Friday saw the West’s first reaction to the invasion. Both the US, the EU and the UK announced sanctions against Russia. These mainly target Russia’s largest banks, oligarchs and the export of technology goods to Russia.
Military conflict Russia-Ukraine
Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine on Thursday. The financial markets are reacting with price declines, a rise in the price of crude oil, a fall in the Russian ruble and price rises in credit-sensitive government bonds. We provide an assessment of the current market situation.
The crisis in Ukraine
The risk of an escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia, Ukraine and NATO has risen further in recent days.
Erste Asset Management achieves record result in 2021
Erste Asset Management was yet again ranked first among the Austrian investment companies last year. Assets under management in Austria had increased by 16.6% y/y to EUR 47.7bn as of 31 December 2021.
Stock markets off to a bumpy start in 2022
Inflation has risen sharply and the first interest rate hikes are expected from the Federal Reserve in the USA. What impact could this have on stocks?
Investing – a long term story
We have seen some extraordinary years speaking about equity and multi asset performance. Interest rates were low, volatility – representing the average daily price changes – was comparably low. What is the situation today?
10 theses for 2022
Waves of infections will continue to influence economic activity and the markets. What will happen in China, what are the inflation risks and will it be volatile? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer has drawn up 10 theses for the year 2022.
Pandemic year three: what are the challenges ahead?
We are now into the third year of the pandemic. Since the spring 2020 collapse, economic activity and markets have shown exceptional resilience. This is not to be taken for granted. After all, the list of potential negative influences (“challenges”) is long.
Advantages of supranational bonds in emerging market currencies
The most common form of supranational financial institutions are development banks, whose shareholders are usually the founding states. Investors’ exposure to bonds issued by development banks allows them to finance local infrastructure or climate projects at lower cost, which ultimately benefits the local population.
Investors bought the dip. Again.
Just when it looked like a quiet end to the year on the stock markets, the emergence of Omicron shook investor confidence and led to a sell-off lasting several days. How has market optimism evolved since then? Our stock expert Tamás Menyhárt gives an outlook.
Inflation at its peak – what are the reasons?
At 5.2% y/y, consumer price inflation for the OECD region reached the highest value in October since 1997. Has inflation peaked, or are we at the outset of a sustained period of high inflation?
Inflationary Boom – A thin red line towards welfare
The global view on inflation has turned completely since Spring 2020. While low inflation has been an issue between the Great Financial Crisis and the start of the pandemic, multi-year-highs in inflation were reached in Spring 2021. What will happen next?
Stagflation – a serious risk scenario
In recent months, the risk of stagflation (the simultaneous occurrence of economic stagnation and inflation) has increased. Without the pandemic, output would be higher and inflation lower: bottlenecks in production and logistics have slowed economic activity and caused prices in the goods sector to rise sharply.
Financial markets outlook: equities and high-yield bonds remain first choice
On top of the corona situation, two additional developments have been crucial for the development of the financial markets. The central banks have been pursuing a very expansive regime on a global scale, and at the same massive stimulus packages have been passed in an effort to get the economy up to speed again
Corporate earnings provide tailwind – Update from the Investment Division
The surprisingly good corporate earnings provided a tailwind & the price of gold continued to rise. Update from the Investment Division.
Shares in positive territory – Update from the Investment Division
The US stock market was lifted by technology stocks such as Apple and Microsoft & earnings growth so far is -10.5%. Update from the Investment Division.
TikTok ban in the USA – Update from the Investment Division
TikTok is the focus of the dispute between the US and China & corporate bonds posted their best month in June. Update from the Investment Division.
FOMC Meeting – Update from the Investment Division
Yesterday, the Fed was the focus of attention & the increase in Covid 19 infections could put further pressure on the economy. Update from the Investment Division.
„I just can’t get enough“– Update from the Investment Division
In one hit the Black Eyed Peas sang “I just can’t get enough”. Even governments and central banks seem to have fallen in love with economic stimulus packages. Update from the Investment Division.
Losses for risk investments – Update from the Investment DivisionOutlook.
The markets for risky assets ended last week with losses. The main reason was the escalating tensions between China and the US. Update from the Investment Division.
EU summit: Agreement on billion-euro aid package – Update from the Investment Division
The EU heads of state and government have agreed on a billion euro aid package. It is the largest in the history of the EU. Update from the Investment Division.
Marathon talks on EU Corona aid packages – Update from the Investment Division
The weekend was marked by marathon talks between EU leaders. So far, no agreement has been reached. Update from the Investment Division.
Canada’s central bank – Update from the Investment Division
Canada’s central bank has left the key interest rate unchanged and no change in monetary policy stance is expected at today’s meeting of the Governing Council.
US Consumer Confidence – Update from the Investment Division
Consumer confidence is rising in the USA. An index that measures consumer confidence is the largest growth and has clearly exceeded expectations for the index. Update from the Investment Division
„Ain’t no Mountain High Enough“ – Update from the Investment Division
“Ain’t no Mountain High Enough”: The mountains of debt that governments are accumulating know hardly any limits at present. Update from the Investment Division.
Security law for Hong Kong – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday? Politics 1 – Further tensions between the USA and China. As reported China is attempting to implement a national security law in Hong Kong. Since the UK handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997 the concept “One state, two systems” is in place. That granted Hong Kong a far-reaching autonomous […]
Positive start of the week – Update from the Investment Division
Our young swans are allowed to go back to school and Hong Kong stabilized despite tensions with China. Update from the Investment Division.
Postitive end of the week – Update from the Investment Division
The end of the week on the stock markets was more positive than the beginning of last week. Update from the Investment Division.
Musk launches Tesla production – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since the yesterday ? Elon Musk has always been a colorful character. Until now, he could also adorn himself with the fact that his products help save the world. Especially the Tesla electric cars. Yesterday he added another chapter to his extraordinary story by announcing that he will resume production at the […]
Trade deal between USA and China – Update from the Investment Division
What has occurred since yesterday ? The global equity markets closed yesterday in positive territory. The US markets could see gains of ca. 1%. In Europe the gains were ca. 1,5%. In the last days the trade conflict between the USA and China overshadowed the markets once again. However, from that corner came positive news […]