At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
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How high do key interest rates still climb?
Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the USA raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points last week. However, both central banks signalled that the end of the cycle is near – or may even have already been reached after the recent rate hikes.
Strong first half of the year: What`s next for the stock markets?
The stock markets look back on a strong first half of the year. In addition to the already familiar factors of inflation and key interest rates, the trend topic of artificial intelligence (AI) came into focus. In this interview, fund manager Tamás Menyhárt looks back on the past six months and tells us what has to happen for 2023 to end as happily as the first half of the year did.
Recession, inflation, key interest rates: Economic outlook for the second half of the year
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
Fight against inflation: Monetary policy remains restrictive
Central banks remain on a restrictive course and hold out the prospect of further key interest rate hikes. Although there are some signs of a further decline in inflation, it is falling more slowly than expected. You can read where the journey could lead in the blog post.
Interest rate decisions in focus: what will the central banks do?
This week, the markets are eagerly awaiting the upcoming interest rate decisions. The Fed in the USA will make the first move today, Wednesday. For the first time in the current cycle, no increase in the key interest rate is expected. For tomorrow’s interest rate decision by the ECB, on the other hand, the market expects a further rate hike of 25 basis points.
US labour market: strong employment growth
Surprisingly good figures came from the US labor market in the previous week. Despite the strong growth in employment, however, economic growth has recently been rather meager. Recession risks also remain at an uncomfortably high level.
International Monetary Fund/World Bank Group Spring Meetings 2023
The annual Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank bring together high-ranking representatives from business, the financial sector and politics. Fund manager
Tolgahan Memişoğlu reports on his impressions.
Banking problems support share prices
Since the banking problems in the US emerged in March, share prices have risen and expectations for future key interest rates have fallen significantly. However, inflation dynamics remain the most important factor for the markets, but unfortunately also one that is difficult to assess.
Game Changer
The current crisis of confidence continues to dominate market activity and has significantly increased uncertainty about the future development of economic indicators. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.