The financial markets started this week with high volatility. The US leading index S&P 500 suffered a loss of more than 2% since Monday, while the European index EuroStoxx 600 is almost 3% lower. What will we observe in the coming days?
Although volatility and uncertainty remain particularly high in the capital markets, there has been some stabilization and, most recently, a slight recovery in the equity markets since last week.
Stocks posted significant gains on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank would begin raising interest rates this month. Stock markets interpreted this as a positive signal in the sense that the threat to growth posed by the war in Ukraine did not justify a change of course in monetary policy at the moment.
Last Friday saw the West’s first reaction to the invasion. Both the US, the EU and the UK announced sanctions against Russia. These mainly target Russia’s largest banks, oligarchs and the export of technology goods to Russia.
Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine on Thursday. The financial markets are reacting with price declines, a rise in the price of crude oil, a fall in the Russian ruble and price rises in credit-sensitive government bonds. We provide an assessment of the current market situation.
The Russia/Ukraine conflict is keeping the markets in suspense. Everything is possible – from continued diplomacy in order to contain the escalation to harder sanctions in case of a more comprehensive invasion. The volatility on the financial markets will remain high.