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Will there be a year-end rally?

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The EU has the chance to make the seed legislation fit for the future

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ARCHE NOAH was founded 26 years ago. The careful, protective handling of seeds and the protection of the diversity of agricultural crop has been the focus of the charitable association ever since. More than 15,000 members, patrons, and partners who invest money and ideas in the mission of maintaining the diversity of agricultural crop support ARCHE NOAH.

How does ARCHE NOAH see the issue genetically modified organisms and patents on food and seeds?

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Is there a potential for a year-end rally in stocks?

From a technical point of view, the concept of a “year-end rally” is a myth. At least, this is what empirical evidence is telling us. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500, for example, posted a December performance, on average, of 1.12%, making December only the 5th-best month of the year (Fig.1). Over the entire period – from 2006 to 2015 – there was not a single year, in which December was the best performing month.

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Trumponomics

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The market participants are still focused on the implications of Donald Trump’s victory at the US presidential elections. In simple terms, “Trumponomics” are a combination of expansive fiscal policies and restrictive trade policy. An increased budget deficit is supposed to support economic growth, while the curbing of free trade aims at job protection.

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Markets assume President Trump will deliver

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The outcome of the US election last week, together with the Brexit-vote in June, was the second major political event this year that shook financial markets. In both cases the outcome was different to what pollsters, the media and investors anticipated. Unsurprisingly, markets – across asset-classes and geographies – reacted strongly and in some cases completely different to what was expected before the event. Donald Trump’s win is seen as game-changer, reflecting the next president’s pronounced views on free-trade and immigration, his geo-political positions and his domestic economic agenda including a massive fiscal boost to upgrade the country’s infrastructure, tax cuts and deregulation.

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YIELD RADAR: November 2016

Volatility in the bond markets increased lately. Especially european governement bonds become under pressure due to an increase in probability for a possible interest hike in the US in december. Also the surprising election victory of Donald Trump puts weigh on bond markets. The expected increase in fi scal spending together with a less expansive monetary policy lets yields of US-treasuries go up.

Regarding emerging market bonds especially local currencies developed very well. The main reason is the stabilisation of the economic environment. However, turkish Lira got under pressure due to political turbulences.

Interesting: High Yield Bonds in Euro developed very well: this market segment was not hit by a lower oil price, the ratings overall are good compared to US peers and last but not least: the expansive european monetary policy helps.

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The impact of Donald Trump’s election victory

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After a long campaign, the results of the US presidential election are in: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In addition, the Republican Party has retained its majority in Congress. What are the repercussions for the global economy and the financial markets?

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A slightly different view on Russia

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Alexandre Dimitrov, Senior Fund Manager for the Russia equity fund of Erste Asset Management, sums up his personal impressions of the investor conference in Moscow at the end of October. The picture is surprisingly positive…

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Clinton versus Trump

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The rising relevance of the anti-establishment movement across many parts of the world has instilled a particular sense of urgency and importance into the upcoming presidential elections in the USA on 8 November.

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Emerging markets bonds in demand

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Economic growth in the emerging markets has picked up substantially, while that in the industrialised economies has been rather stable. This has led to an increase in the growth differential in the emerging markets’ favour. Investor demand for emerging markets bonds has been on the rise in search of higher yields and interest rates.

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“The trust in emerging markets is returning”

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ESPA STOCK GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS: Three questions for Gabriela Tinti, Senior Fund Manager

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