Global economic growth is very robust, and the emerging economies have picked up momentum. The purchasing managers’ indices in November had dropped slightly from previous levels, suggesting a moderate slowdown of Q4 global economic growth.
Logistics makes sure the economy keeps moving. Today our world would not be conceivable without it.
From an economic point of view, the multiple transport of goods across Europe does make sense but from a sustainable point of view, the environment suffers from increased CO2 and fine particle pollution, exhaust gases and noise. The speed at which goods are transported increases steadily and thus also the burden of the workers involved therein.
2017 is drawing to an end, and the bottom line is positive. The outcome is significantly better than we had expected. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has never expanded more quickly and especially concertedly than in 2017. Also, inflation has surprised on the downside, falling short yet again of the expectations held by central banks and analysts.
Guest author: Jenny Teng, Senior Fund Manager
Jenny Teng is senior fund manager in the equity team of Erste AM. Born in China she is employed since 2008 at ERSTE-SPARINVEST and responsible for the Asian equity markets.
Certainly, the National Congress of the Communist Party of China held every five years in Beijing is an important political event, but this year’s Party Congress was a milestone. It marked that a new era has begun in China. President Xi Jinping cemented his power further as China’s paramount leader, a leader, who might rule the country on the coming decade, a leader, who has high ambitions.
Gabriela Tinti was interviewed by Dieter Kerschbaum, Erste AM Communications.
The global economy is experiencing significant growth, and the emerging markets have felt the increased economic growth rates as well. Even in problematic countries such as Brazil or Russia, the situation has been picking up due to the increased oil price.
2017 has been another bumper year for global equities with the MSCI All Country Index gaining ca. 18% in the first ten months in dollar terms. November, however, has not started well for risky assets.
Impressions of a trip to Beijing
Author: Thomas Oposich, Senior Fundmanager Fixed Income funds
Driving through Beijing you will see megalomania without limits – in houses, traffic, and people. A trip in a tuk-tuk, which looks like a motorcycle on three wheels, allows you a short glance into the past. It is at these moments that the rift between rich and poor becomes obvious.
Irrespective of the opposites in the social strata, the eyes are looking towards the future of the metropolis, home to millions. Led by the government, plans are to take the country to new strength. The control exercised especially in the area of infrastructure and with respect to property prices is enormous.
Venezuela is in a difficult situation. Hyperinflation describes the economic environment best. For 2017, the IMF estimates a consumer price inflation of 650% y/y, and for 2018, the estimate is 2,300%.
This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.
The Council of the European Central Bank pulled an impressive stunt at the monetary policy meeting on 26 October. ECB President Mario Draghi announced to reduce the extremely supportive monetary policy in the near future while sounding very cautious (dovish) with regard to the process at the same time.