Paul Severin am 10th February 2017
YIELD RADAR: February 2017
The global economic indicators are trending upwards, with the result that gobal economic growth is slightly above its potential rate. This is also true for the euro-zone that benefits from the very expansive monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
In general one can observe an increase in inflation in developed economies as well as in China. On the other hand some large emerging economies such as Brazil, India and Russia face falling infl ation rates.
In the US three rate hikes are expected, whereas the ECB will reduce its bond repurchasing programme in April from EUR 80 bn to EUR 60 bn. In our view these are important steps towards a long term normalization of the monetary policies. This environment benefits riskier asset categories such as US-high-yield-bonds. This asset class benefited not only from a stronger economy, but also from higher commodity prices – mainly oil.
Peter Szopo am 07th February 2017 (c) iStock
US interest rates are on the rise. It took the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) twelve months, after the initial lift-off in December 2015, to make the second move, but for two reasons the odds of more frequent rate hikes over the next twelve months have increased. First, the Fed has turned more hawkish and second, inflation expectations have started ticking higher. Only recently, Chairwoman Yellen warned that “waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road–either too much inflation, financial instability, or both.”
Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 31st January 2017 (c) Fotolia
Christian Gaier, Head of Fixed Income Rates, Sovereigns & FX, Erste AM
I would like to share my impressions from my latest investor conference in London that I attended on 16th January 2017. The conference was organized by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), a leading global financial group with a strong franchise in 35 countries and a leading position in the Spanish market and in Mexico. For us, a perfect partner when it comes to research on countries and companies in Latin America (LATAM).
Gerhard Winzer am 27th January 2017 © iStock.com
The first weeks of the new year have already picked up from where the trends that started in 2016 and the hypotheses for 2017 left off: higher growth, normalisation of inflation, increased uncertainty with regard to the effects of Trumponomics, and a gradual end of the loose monetary policy.
Peter Szopo am 20th January 2017 © iStock.com
The year 2016 was full of surprises. It was, for example, the year, when an outsider overcame odds of 5000 to 1 to win the Premier League. It was also the year, when the lyrics of three-minute pop songs were acknowledged to be an art form worth the Literature Nobel. Most importantly, however, politics in the Western hemisphere surprised big time with the vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.
Gerold Permoser am 19th January 2017
In our annual press conference I have presented the most relevant topics for the investment year 2017. The most relevant ones are: stronger expected global growth, an increase in inflation and elevated event risks due to political reasons.
Gerhard Winzer am 10th January 2017 © iStock.com
What are the topics that will be relevant this year? In commemoration of the fifth centenary of Martin Luther posting his 95 propositions, we, too, want to suggest ten theses for 2017.
Harald Egger am 05th January 2017 © Fotolia.de
Another year has passed, and it is time to look back. The year on the stock exchanges started out worse than in a long time. After only a few trading days, losses averaged 10%. The fear of economic turbulences originating in China dominated the markets. Meanwhile the currency of choice during a crisis, gold, was picking up speed, gaining 20% within a short period of time.
Paul Severin am 04th January 2017 © Fotolia
The last year 2016 was full of surprises also on the capital markets. Most asset classes could finish the year with a solid plus. We have analyzed, which blogs were the most popular in the last year.
Paul Severin am 30th December 2016 © iStock.com
2016 was full of surprises on the stock exchanges. At the beginning of the year, economic concerns in China, the second-biggest economy in the world, triggered drastic losses on the stock exchanges. Over the year, cautious optimism gradually returned: the oil price recovered, and the stock exchanges in the emerging markets rebounded. Brexit and Donald Trump failed to affect the sentiment of market players. Instead, the global equity barometer rose particularly in the second half of the year by a large degree (see the chart below). With the help of cyclical companies and financials, which often command heavy weightings, especially US-stock markets set new highs. The development of European and Asian exchanges was relatively disappointing.