Global growth is likely to cool significantly in the second quarter. At the same time, recession risks remain uncomfortably high, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer writes in his market commentary. The further course of negotiations on the US debt ceiling is also likely to cause tension on the market.
Article on tag "economic growth"
The current crisis of confidence continues to dominate market activity and has significantly increased uncertainty about the future development of economic indicators. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
WIIW Forecast Sees Eastern European EU Countries Well-Equiped to Handle Consequences of War and Inflation
For this year, experts at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) expect economic growth of 3.3% on average for the EU members in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
Inflation has been the underlying factor in economy for some time. A recovery of GDP on a pre-pandemic level should be reached soon. The probability of a growth phase has increased. What further developments are expected?
Falling economic momentum is not bad news
One of the most important economic indicators, the global purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, fell in June compared to the previous month. Is that bad news for risky asset classes like stocks? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the most important scenarios.
Yield curve management
In recent days, equities and other risky asset classes have come under pressure despite the fact that in the year to date the optimism about an economic recovery has been on the rise. Is that a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”? Had the good news already been priced into the market? Or is there another mechanism that could be driving the future development?
Coronavirus: US rate cut and now what?
The corona virus leaves traces in financial market policy. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates surprisingly early on Tuesday. Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains this measure in our interview.
USA: Inverse yield curve fuels fear of recession
In the US bond market, the yield on two-year government bonds had risen above the yield on ten-year bonds, creating the rare situation of an inverse yield curve. This was last the case in 2007.
Constructive central banks
Risky asset classes such as equities have recorded price increases at the beginning of the year. The core question for the investor is: Is this recovery after the sharp decline in Q4 sustainable or not?
Financial markets 2018: reasons to be cautiously optimistic
The financial markets have been on the rocks in 2018. Read here why you should still keep a cautiously optimistic stance.