Inflation has been the underlying factor in economy for some time. A recovery of GDP on a pre-pandemic level should be reached soon. The probability of a growth phase has increased. What further developments are expected?
One of the most important economic indicators, the global purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, fell in June compared to the previous month. Is that bad news for risky asset classes like stocks? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the most important scenarios.
In recent days, equities and other risky asset classes have come under pressure despite the fact that in the year to date the optimism about an economic recovery has been on the rise. Is that a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”? Had the good news already been priced into the market? Or is there another mechanism that could be driving the future development?
The corona virus leaves traces in financial market policy. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates surprisingly early on Tuesday. Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains this measure in our interview.
In the US bond market, the yield on two-year government bonds had risen above the yield on ten-year bonds, creating the rare situation of an inverse yield curve. This was last the case in 2007.
Risky asset classes such as equities have recorded price increases at the beginning of the year. The core question for the investor is: Is this recovery after the sharp decline in Q4 sustainable or not?
The financial markets have been on the rocks in 2018. Read here why you should still keep a cautiously optimistic stance.
Germany is not only the largest, but also one of the strongest economies in the Eurozone and the EU. This is reflected, among other things, in its stable economic growth. In 2017, Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2 per cent compared to the previous year, only slightly less than the total Eurozone growth of 2.4 per cent.
The announcement by the US President, Donald Trump, to levy import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) has made waves. Can the favourable economic environment be toppled an will we see a trade war between the US and the EU?
The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.