All articles on the topic “Markets”
Fund savings plan: Why it pays off to persevere
The bears have gained the upper hand on the stock markets. How investors and savers can overcome this phase and why perseverance could pay off right now.
Central Banks Attempt to Prevent Inflationary Spiral
Since the beginning of the year, the bond markets have been in a bear market. What are the implications for the economy? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes three models in relation to the development of inflation and their implications.
Increasing growth risks
Inflation, the war in Ukraine and monetary policy are driving the markets and stoking fears of an impending recession. Initial economic indicators also point to gloomy growth prospects.
Toothless central banks: will the interest rate increases remain ineffective?
Rising credit rates and prices for goods and services are hampering consumer demand. Which future scenario can be expected? Interview with Péter Varga, Senior Professional Fund Manager at Erste Asset Management.
Way Out Recession?
The prices of risk asset classes are subject to downward pressure. Is an inflation spiral likely to occur? Will the increase in key interest rates trigger a recession?
High inflation rates increase downside risks
Inflation rates continue to rise, prompting central banks to accelerate rate hikes. Which models for the future inflation development are conceivable? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Winzer analyzes which scenarios are imaginable in the future.
Despite high inflation, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen sees little risk of recession
Sentiment among U.S. consumers has fallen to a record low due to high inflation. How does this data affect the economy? Is a recession looming? Are solid corporate results being ignored?
World Economic Forum in Davos Sees World at Turning Point After Pandemic-Induced Break
The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, focused on the topics of the Ukraine war, inflation, supply chain problems, food shortages and climate change. How do top politicians and leading economists assess the situation?
Alternative investments defy market losses
The losses of equities, bonds and gold since the beginning of April have put the limelight on the asset class of alternative investments. What are the characteristics of such an asset? Can this slow the downturn? And how can you invest?
Growth fears
Inflation has been the underlying factor in economy for some time. A recovery of GDP on a pre-pandemic level should be reached soon. The probability of a growth phase has increased. What further developments are expected?
Hawkish and bearish
Expectations of key interest rate hikes have been the most important driving factor for the capital markets since the beginning of the year. The Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the Fed’s hawkish and bearish stance. How will the financial environment change in the second half of the year?
China’s Strict Zero-Covid Strategy Is Slowing Down Economic Recovery
China’s economy is on a downward slide: exports and freight traffic are at their lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. Investors are turning their backs on the country. Has the bottom now been reached?
Tightening of financial condition
The global economy has been confronted with two stagflationary events in the last two years: the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. What factors are influencing the uncertainty in the markets? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Winzer analyzes which scenarios are conceivable in the future.
The End of Loose Monetary Policy
The US Federal Reserve is turning the interest rate screw hard and accelerating the exit from its ultra-expansive monetary policy. Will it get a grip on high inflation? And how will the economy cope with higher interest rates?
Our ESG partners’ view on nuclear energy and sustainability
The EU Commission announced that certain activities involving nuclear power and natural gas will be included in the EU taxonomy. Small Modular Reactors are seen as an investment opportunity. How are energy suppliers and the financial sector dealing with this?
Investment update: Increased volatility on the stock markets
The financial markets started this week with high volatility. The US leading index S&P 500 suffered a loss of more than 2% since Monday, while the European index EuroStoxx 600 is almost 3% lower. What will we observe in the coming days?
France Presidential Elections: Second Voting Round between Macron and Le Pen
A tight race is shaping up in the run-off election for the French presidency in a fortnight. What concerns both candidates is the preservation of purchasing power and the high prices for oil and natural gas. How will the financial markets react to the election result?
The hour of the hawks
In the US, interest rate hikes to a level of 3% by the end of 2023 have become likely. When will the European Central Bank follow? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the interest rate policies of the central banks.
Massive Investments to Solve Chip Industry’s Supply Bottlenecks as Demand Soars Further
The increased demand for semiconductors continues to cause supply bottlenecks. This is why the EU wants to boost Europe’s share of the global market in semiconductor production. In particular, computers and mobile phones as well as consumer electronics are in demand.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and its massive effects
Within two years, the global economy has been confronted by two negative events or, indeed, shocks: the Covid pandemic was the first one, having not only killed six million people globally at this point, but having also caused an unprecedented slump in the global economy and the subsequent recovery. The second one, i.e. the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, is of a geopolitical nature and has triggered a commodity price shock.
Investment update: Some stabilization despite ongoing bombardment
Although volatility and uncertainty remain particularly high in the capital markets, there has been some stabilization and, most recently, a slight recovery in the equity markets since last week.
Soaring Oil Prices may Accelerate Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels
After the oil price climbed to its highest level since 2008 in the previous week, the countries want to end their dependence on Russian oil and natural gas supplies.
Two stagflationary shocks: pandemic and war in Ukraine
The global economy was confronted with two negative developments within two years: the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. Erste Asset Management’s Chief Economist Winzer analyzes the stagflationary state of the economy.
Interview: What do the sanctions imposed on Russia mean for our funds?
What are the effects of the sanctions imposed on Russia on our funds? Interview with Alexandre Dimitrov, Senior Fund Manager with more than 20 years of experience and special field of expertise: equity markets Russia and CEE.
Investment Update: First steps to interest rate hikes and volatility in the stock markets
Stocks posted significant gains on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank would begin raising interest rates this month. Stock markets interpreted this as a positive signal in the sense that the threat to growth posed by the war in Ukraine did not justify a change of course in monetary policy at the moment.
The impact of the war in Ukraine
We want to highlight the possible impact of the war in Ukraine on investment decisions. In short, the conflict reinforces already existing trends. In addition, the global recovery scenario is still holding, but recession risks in Europe have increased.
Ukraine conflict: sanctions against Russia
Last Friday saw the West’s first reaction to the invasion. Both the US, the EU and the UK announced sanctions against Russia. These mainly target Russia’s largest banks, oligarchs and the export of technology goods to Russia.
Escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine: are the markets at risk?
The Russia/Ukraine conflict is keeping the markets in suspense. Everything is possible – from continued diplomacy in order to contain the escalation to harder sanctions in case of a more comprehensive invasion. The volatility on the financial markets will remain high.
The crisis in Ukraine
The risk of an escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia, Ukraine and NATO has risen further in recent days.
Erste Asset Management achieves record result in 2021
Erste Asset Management was yet again ranked first among the Austrian investment companies last year. Assets under management in Austria had increased by 16.6% y/y to EUR 47.7bn as of 31 December 2021.
Investing – a long term story
We have seen some extraordinary years speaking about equity and multi asset performance. Interest rates were low, volatility – representing the average daily price changes – was comparably low. What is the situation today?
Gas and Oil Prices Continue to Soar
Energy prices are going through the roof at the moment. The causes are both political and economic. Shares in the energy and commodities sector offer potential for further price increases.
10 theses for 2022
Waves of infections will continue to influence economic activity and the markets. What will happen in China, what are the inflation risks and will it be volatile? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer has drawn up 10 theses for the year 2022.
Italy is electing a new president
Italy is about to elect a new president of state. The election that will be held from 24 January 2022 in several ballots is going to determine the successor of the current, 80-year old President Sergio Mattarella, whose mandate expires in February 2022. This was announced by the president of the chamber of deputies of […]
Pandemic year three: what are the challenges ahead?
We are now into the third year of the pandemic. Since the spring 2020 collapse, economic activity and markets have shown exceptional resilience. This is not to be taken for granted. After all, the list of potential negative influences (“challenges”) is long.
Interview: Behavioral Finance
Interview with Dr. Manfred Frühwirth, Vienna University of Economic and Business Administration What is Behavioural Finance? Behavioural Finance is located at the interface of finance and psychology. As a rule, Behavioural Finance investigates how irrational behaviour (most often on the investors’ part) affects asset prices on the capital market. 2a) Are there any examples of […]
New German “Traffic Light” Coalition Launches Climate and Economic Programme During Difficult Phase
Germany’s first federal government coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green Party – called the “traffic light” coalition for the parties’ traditional colours – has now been in office for just under two weeks and is starting its planned renewal programme at the most difficult time imaginable. The train towards climate protection and renewable energies is picking up speed.
Inflation at its peak – what are the reasons?
At 5.2% y/y, consumer price inflation for the OECD region reached the highest value in October since 1997. Has inflation peaked, or are we at the outset of a sustained period of high inflation?
Black Friday and Cyber Monday Kick off the Year’s most Important Retail Season on Friday
On November 26, the traditional “Black Friday“ of discount deals in the US and many other countries officially kicks off the immensely important Christmas shopping season for many industries. However, with the trend towards online shopping accelerating with the Corona pandemic, how will this turn out this year?
Inflationary Boom – A thin red line towards welfare
The global view on inflation has turned completely since Spring 2020. While low inflation has been an issue between the Great Financial Crisis and the start of the pandemic, multi-year-highs in inflation were reached in Spring 2021. What will happen next?
A green label does not necessarily mean green on the inside
Funds marketing themselves as green investment do not always focus on companies that fight climate change, develop solar modules or recycle batteries. Instead, many of them look like traditional portfolios holding large tech companies – yet they wear green labels.
Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Promises Economic Stimulus Programmes to Combat Corona Crisis After Election Victory
The parliamentary elections in Japan confirmed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s pro-business course. Will the stock market gain new momentum?
Stewardship vs. greenwashing
By integrating sustainable factors, we pursue social and environmental justice and have mechanisms and tools in place to avoid greenwashing. Our mission is also to align our sustainability approach with the investment needs of our clients to build a solid foundation for the future.
Yield opportunity in the bond market: Q4 2021
Most economic indicators for August and September point to a slowdown in economic growth. However, growth rates still remain relatively strong
Continuing Oil Price Rally Leads to new Multi-Year Highs
Crude oil prices continued to soar in the past week. The background to the oil price increases lies in the rising demand for oil combined with the ongoing economic recovery and fears of tight supply. The price surge in recent days was triggered by a drop in oil reserves reported by the US government on Wednesday.
Stagflation – a serious risk scenario
In recent months, the risk of stagflation (the simultaneous occurrence of economic stagnation and inflation) has increased. Without the pandemic, output would be higher and inflation lower: bottlenecks in production and logistics have slowed economic activity and caused prices in the goods sector to rise sharply.
Network Outage and Whistleblower give Facebook Critics new Fuel for Fire
Two nearly simultaneous events surrounding social network behemoth Facebook have recently directed public attention towards the network’s impact and power, giving Facebook critics new momentum: After an outage of the most important Facebook services last Monday that lasted several hours, former Facebook employee and whistleblower Frances Haugen made serious accusations against the company before the US Senate the following day.
Falling Momentum and Hawkish central banks
Falling economic indicators, anger in China and interest rate decisions by central banks are currently in the focus of the financial markets. Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the current situation.
House Of Cards – the case of Evergrande
Is there a solution to the current situation of real estate developer Evergrande? How high is the share of speculative real estate purchases in China, who profits and what Evergrande has to do with the 2008 financial crisis, explains Senior Professional Fund Manager Péter Varga.
Gas Price Surge Driving up Electricity Prices and Fueling Inflation Concerns
Gas prices have soared in recent weeks. What are the reasons behind this? Will the planned increase in Norwegian gas supply bring the relief we have been longing for? Read more in our blog.