Articles about “US Federal Reserve”
Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?
“Higher for longer” has become the mantra of the powerful central bankers in recent months. Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive longer than originally expected. Regardless of whether the major central banks will follow up with a final interest rate step in autumn, the interest rate peak has probably been reached and “the worst” is behind us.
Best of Charts: Beach Edition
The stock markets are also usually a little quieter during the summer months. Many market participants take a break due to holidays and the general activity decreases. In any case, a look at some important charts indicates that no nasty surprises are to be expected during the holidays.
Strong US dollar increases pressure on Japan’s central bank
The soaring US dollar is causing problems in countries outside the USA. In Japan, the Yen has weakened considerably recently because, unlike the other central banks, the Bank of Japan is sticking to its ultra-loose monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the meeting of the Japanese central bank next Friday will be more in focus than usual.
Jackson Hole – Focus on Monetary Policy
This week, the highly acclaimed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will take place. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech will be the center of attention.
US banks report good and bad developments in the financial sector
The reporting season with the largest US banks started on Wall Street last week. Their results give a good impression of how the previous year went and what trends can be identified for this year.
US earnings season in full swing
The US earnings season is back in full swing. The first results for Q3 of 2018 are promising, particularly in the banking sector.
Strong USA, weak emerging markets, risk of inflation – is the economic boom drawing to an end?
This blog entry will discuss three scenarios for the coming quarters and the coming year.
Market Monitor: Optimism on the rise
This week we held our monthly Investment Committee meeting. Although only little has changed with regard to the overall economic picture, we were having a few interesting discussions that we would now like to share with you.
US central bank will start reducing bond holdings in October
The most important central bank in the world, the Federal Reserve of the USA, has announced a historic decision as a result of its FOMC meeting on 20 September: the central bank balance sheet, hugely inflated in the wake of the bond purchase programme, will be gradually reduced from October onwards. Generally speaking this is […]
US debt ceiling keeping the financial markets on their toes
The Trump administration should be keeping the financial markets on their toes in the coming weeks. Yet again, the issue is the government debt which will soon reach its statutory maximum.
Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 3
I will be upfront about it: to me, the Taylor rule is still a helpful tool to assess the future monetary policy of the US central bank. However, it should not be used as blueprint without thinking it through. Instead, it should be seen as heuristic tool that helps structure one’s analysis.
Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 2
Since 2008, the key-lending rates in the USA seem to have been significantly too low as measured by the Taylor rule. With some economists blaming Alan Greenspan’s loose monetary policy as partially responsible for the financial crisis of 2008, the question is whether we are in for a déjà-vu.
Quo Vadis, Federal Reserve? – Part 1
The US central bank has embarked on a cycle of interest rate hikes. The question is: by how much will the interest rates increase still, and at what point will it reach a level detrimental to the economy, where equities should be regrouped into asset classes less sensitive to the economic cycle?
US central bank confirms trend reversal
We have seen a number of trend reversals this year, one of them being the end of the negative growth surprises. The forecast of economic growth and inflation are currently not subject to downwards revisions any longer.