Author's Contributions
Sustainability – a critique of a success story
The term “sustainability” can be found in the 2019 annual reports of all 20 ATX companies – and usually more often than terms like “profit” or “efficiency”. What the reference to sustainability means specifically is not always clear.
Lehman Brothers and Coronavirus -A (Preliminary) Tale of Two Crises
The Lehman Brothers crash in 2008, like the current corona virus crisis, had a massive impact on the stock markets. We look back and compare the two.
“Charts don’t tell the future. They tell stories”
The US and Europe are the two most important equity markets worldwide. In our article, we present 6 charts that show the difference between the European and US stock markets.
Decent, not thrilling – the reporting season in the US and Europe
What are the trends that have become apparent in the current reporting season in the US and Europe? Find out more in our new blog.
Stirred, not shaken – A first take on last week’s stock market meltdown
Last week, the S&P 500 lost more than 3%, followed by another loss of more than 2% on the next day. Read about the reasons behind this decrease in our new blog!
Austrian stock market 2018: Flattish, with room to surprise on the upside
Over the past three years (2015-2017) the ATX, Austria’s main equity index, posted an annual return of more than 16%, making the Vienna Stock Exchange the best performing European stock market (or second best, if Eastern Europe is included).
Post-election Turkey – What’s next?
Has the political and economical backdrop improved as result of the election in Turkey? In our newest blog post we’re answering 7 of the most important questions.
Russia back on growth path prior to the World Cup finals, but no reason for euphoria
At the kick-off for the World Cup finals on 14 June, Russia will move to the public limelight for four weeks. Time for a closer look at the Russian economy and equity market.
Equity investors’ interest rate fears may be overblown
Fears of rising interest rates are back. Was the recent 9% correction in global equities just a market blip, amplified by technical factors related to the trading of volatility products? Or something more serious – a regime shift signalling the end of the equity bull market as many have argued?
Global equities: Five charts on where we stand
2017 was an excellent year for stocks. Developed markets were up more than 16% in local currencies, emerging markets almost 28%. How will the markets develop in 2018?
Equities: Optimistic, but cautious
2017 has been another bumper year for global equities with the MSCI All Country Index gaining ca. 18% in the first ten months in dollar terms. November, however, has not started well for risky assets.
Global stock markets: Break, correction or worse?
The probability that there is another leg up for global equity markets is bigger than a significant correction in the near-term. However, there are no guarantees when it comes to investments in stocks in contrast to, as somebody said, the purchase of a vacuum cleaner. In case that the earnings momentum is cooling down or, for example, the macro-backdrop deteriorates, an extended period of equity markets going sideways or a correction cannot be excluded.
Equities: Threats and opportunities of rising interest rates
US interest rates are on the rise. It took the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) twelve months, after the initial lift-off in December 2015, to make the second move, but for two reasons the odds of more frequent rate hikes over the next twelve months have increased.
Equity investors: Are they ignoring risks?
The year 2016 was full of surprises. It was, for example, the year, when an outsider overcame odds of 5000 to 1 to win the Premier League. It was also the year, when the lyrics of three-minute pop songs were acknowledged to be an art form worth the Literature Nobel. Most importantly, however, politics in the Western hemisphere surprised big time with the vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.
Is there a potential for a year-end rally in stocks?
From a technical point of view, the concept of a “year-end rally” is a myth. At least, this is what empirical evidence is telling us. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500, for example, posted a December performance, on average, of 1.12%, making December only the 5th-best month of the year (Fig.1). Over the […]
Markets assume President Trump will deliver
The outcome of the US election last week, together with the Brexit-vote in June, was the second major political event this year that shook financial markets. In both cases the outcome was different to what pollsters, the media and investors anticipated. Unsurprisingly, markets – across asset-classes and geographies – reacted strongly and in some cases […]
Global equities – A fragile rally
The Brexit-vote was a non-event, it seems. At least, that is what global equity markets are telling us. Since June 24 – the day after the referendum – US, European and Japanese indices all have gained around 10% in local currencies (up to August 19). Emerging Markets, on average, made a similar move as well. […]
Brexit becomes reality – markets under pressure
Yesterday’s referendum in the UK surprised with a narrow majority in favour of Brexit. According to the latest results, 51.8% voted for the Brexit, i.e. the exit from the EU. Polls and betting odds had been suggesting a majority in favour of remaining (“Bremain”) in the EU. As expected, Brexit is triggering a massive negative […]
Brexit update: Will they stay or will they go?
Less than a week is left before the British electorate will decide whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union (the Bremain scenario) or leave the union, an outcome known as Brexit. Two months ago, when we started covering this event in a series of blogs (see here, here, here and […]
Brexit: Breakin’ up is hard to do – Part IV
Stock markets not impressed – so far While the debate about Brexit is getting more intense (just a day ago the UK Treasury released its warnings) and the Pound Sterling is trading near historical lows as the referendum is approaching, the UK equity market has not shown any signs of stress. Its valuation premium to […]
Brexit: Breakin’ up is hard to do – Part III
What financial markets are telling us about Brexit The UK’s exit from the European Union – known as “Brexit” – would be a major economic and political event for the UK, Europa and the wider world. While Brexit is not the most likely outcome (see the first blog in this series), it is a real […]
Brexit: Breakin’ up is hard to do – Part II
The economic implications of Brexit Opinion polls and betting odds as well as the muted response of debt and equity investors suggest that Brexit – the UK’s exit from the EU – is not the most likely scenario. That said, it cannot be ruled out. For example, about a quarter of all opinion polls conducted […]
Brexit: Breakin’ up is hard to do – Part I
The likelihood of Brexit On June 23, 2016 the UK will hold a referendum. Voters will decide whether the country should remain a member of the European Union (the “Bremain”-scenario), or whether it should leave the EU (the “Brexit”-scenario). Arguably, Brexit marks the most significant tail-risk for European and global asset markets in 2016.
Earnings season triggers downward revisions
Earnings are key for equity investors, as also my colleague Harald Egger emphasized in this blog two weeks ago. This basic truth is even more relevant as usual at a time when a multi-year equity bull market has ended and a wobbly global economic backdrop is weighing on market sentiment. In this situation, corporate earnings […]
Interest rate lift-off – Stay cool
Following last week’s surprisingly strong employment report, the odds that the US Federal Bank will start raising its policy rate at the next FOMC-meeting in December jumped to almost 70%. Of course, 70% is still short of 100%, but most observers believe that something terrible must happen in the next four weeks to make the […]
The summer of our discontent
Only in a few months we will likely know, whether the bull market that started in mid-2009 really ended in the summer of 2015. What we know, however, is that the headwinds that have emerged in recent months will not recede anytime soon. Another challenging quarter, it seems, lies ahead of equity investors.
“Quarterly Capitalism” under attack
If you thought “quarterly” was a simple adverb characterizing a regularly recurring activity, you may need to reconsider. A new term is making the rounds: “quarterly capitalism” – and in this context, “quarterly” stands for “short-term, myopic, greedy and dysfunctional”. In fact, the term was already invented four years ago by Dominic Barton of McKinsey […]
Turning more positive on CEE equities
In searching for a perfect example of a sideways market one does not need to look further than at Central and Eastern European (CEE) equity markets. The CECE Composite, a Euro-based index of 23 Polish, Czech and Hungarian blue-chips (Bloomberg: CECEEUR), has been range bound for nearly four years, rarely trading outside a narrow range […]
Measuring Greek risk
The longest eleventh hour in recent history is drawing to a close. However, while the negotiations earlier this week seem to have narrowed the gap between Greece and its creditors, a final deal has not emerged yet.
Emerging markets equities: no comeback at this point
Based on earnings expectations emerging markets equities are currently valued 27% below the price/earnings ratio of developed markets equities. The long term average of this discount is 19%. Closing the gap is a question whether the confidence of the markets in the earnings expectations is solid enough to facilitate a re-(e)valuation.
Fed funds rate – a threat to the equity markets?
The US central bank, the Fed, is very likely – almost 90%, according to Fed funds futures – to raise the Fed funds rate this year. The expected rate hike has been one of the dominating topics on the financial markets for a year. The bursting of a mega bubble, rising pressure on fragile emerging […]
Dividend yield beats bond yield
The share price performance in emerging Europe, i.e. Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Turkey, and since most recently again, Greece, has not been overwhelming in the past years. Since the middle of 2011 the MSCI Emerging Europe, the most important index for the region, had been locked into a sideways movement, which was topped […]
What has become of the “oil x 20” rule?
The oil and gas sector is the backbone of the Russian economy. It contributes roughly a quarter to the Russian GDP, and it accounts for almost two thirds of exports. Oil and gas companies represent almost 60% of the market capitalisation of the Moscow stock exchange. It therefore makes sense to analyse the performance of […]