Author's Contributions
Game Changer
The current crisis of confidence continues to dominate market activity and has significantly increased uncertainty about the future development of economic indicators. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
The Good, the Bad and the Hawk
Last week brought good, bad and inflation-fighting news, all from the US. At the start of the new trading week, the focus is on the turbulence surrounding Silicon Valley Bank.
Conditionally positive economic news
Last week, positive economic data brought back some confidence. The global purchasing managers’ index, one of the most important survey-based economic reports, rose for the third time in a row. On the other hand, the latest inflation reports dampen hopes of a rapid decline in inflation without additional key rate hikes.
Risk inflation persistence
Inflation, which remains too high, continues to be the dominant macroeconomic issue. Hopes that inflation will fall as quickly as it has risen have been dampened, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains in his market commentary.
Calibration
Central banks and markets are in a calibration phase. The question is how many key rate hikes are needed to be able to confidently expect inflation to fall in the direction of 2%. Particular attention is therefore once again being paid to the US inflation data, which will be published today, Tuesday.
Party Crashers
Improved growth prospects for China and Europe and hopes of a sustained decline in inflation have supported the markets since the beginning of the year. However, sharp central bank rhetoric and weak growth indicators in the USA could prove to be spoilers.
Tug of war
At present, indicators on inflation and economic activity are competing to determine which of the two categories is more important for the financial market. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
Ten topics for 2023
The previous year was marked by unexpectedly high inflation and rapid key interest rate hikes – but what will the new year bring?
In his article, Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer presents ten topics that could be particularly relevant for the financial markets in 2023.
High uncertainty reduces potential for asset price increases
The environment for the financial markets remains highly uncertain. The further development of inflation and economic growth is not sufficiently foreseeable. This points to continued high fluctuations in asset prices.
Ceteris Paribus
The indications that the inflation peak will be exceeded are growing. If the relationship between inflation surprises (upside) and asset prices (downside) were to hold, that would be, all other things being equal, good news for the financial market.