Improved growth prospects for China and Europe and hopes of a sustained decline in inflation have supported the markets since the beginning of the year. However, sharp central bank rhetoric and weak growth indicators in the USA could prove to be spoilers.
The rise in inflation in the USA was recently lower than expected, which led to a significantly brighter mood on the markets. However, a favourable inflation report is not yet a trend, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer emphasises.
This year brought a turning point in the monetary policy of the major central banks. The crucial question is whether this turning point is cyclical or structural. It is therefore worth taking a look at the neutral interest rate, as this captures structural macroeconomic changes.
The global economy is caught between a strong recovery and inflation fears. Despite low risk premiums, Erste AM Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer continues to see opportunities for equities as long as bond yields rise less than corporate earnings growth rates. Read more in his blog analysis.
As the „first in, first out” country of the COVID-19 crisis, China is gradually returning to normal. The April activity numbers indicate that China’s domestic economy has been resilient and has continued to recover from the COVID-19 disruption.
The corona pandemic has plunged the world into an economic crisis. Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the 10 most important points about recovery, economic policy, inflation and the duration of the slump.
India has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world for several years. Can it step out of China’s shadow or will it stay only a contender?
Croatia has finally received the long-awaited investment grade rating. What’s next? Our senior fund manager Ivana Kunstek answers the most important questions.
China accounts for just under 16% of world gross domestic product, making it the second largest economy in the world. Can this success story be continued – what speaks for and what against it?
The countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe are among the most important economic growth markets for Europe. How are the prospects for next year?