All articles on the topic “Markets”
Trump 2.0 – The first 100 days lie behind us
Following the tariffs shock and the accompanying market turmoil, the deferral of said tariffs has led to a surprisingly rapid upturn on the equity markets. That being said, uncertainty remains high, even though the US reporting season has been positive so far. Read more in the market commentary by Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management.
The first 100 days
The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second presidency are behind us. What has happened since then? Will the structural changes continue at this pace?
Central banks at odds: How are Fed and ECB reacting to the trade conflict?
Trump’s customs policy and the trade conflict also pose new challenges for central banks. However, while the ECB has room to cut interest rates in order to support the economy, the Fed must exercise caution in the USA. Higher tariffs also threaten to push up inflation again.
However, US President Donald Trump does not like the Fed’s course at all. His attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are fuelling concerns about the central bank’s independence. Even though Trump has recently backed down slightly, his comments are once again unsettling the markets.
Stock markets react volatile to tariff pause: what happens next?
The US government’s extensive tariff plans have been causing volatility on the stock markets since last week. Yesterday’s announcement of a 90-day pause for the new tariffs was met with relief by the markets – even though a further escalation between the US and China is on the horizon. We take a look at the current situation on the financial markets and analyse the possible consequences of an escalation in the trade conflict.
US tariffs trigger a price slide – what to do now
The latest US tariffs have caused considerable turbulence on the financial markets worldwide. What is the background to the tariffs and how can investors react in the current environment?
Central banks are becoming more cautious: these are the implications for the bond market
The investment package in Germany and the associated ‘abandonment of the debt brake’ has caused a lot of movement in the eurozone bond market. Meanwhile, central banks have to manage the balancing act between slowing economic growth and rising inflation. Dániel Bebesy, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Erste Asset Management Hungary, talks in an interview about the recent central bank meetings and their impact on the bond market.
Turkish financial markets temporarily under pressure following political turbulence
The Turkish stock market has been turbulent recently: the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu caused massive uncertainty. What does the political unrest mean for the Turkish economy and the Istanbul stock exchange?
Five years since Covid hit: a historic crash, and the lessons learned
This week marks the fifth anniversary of the low point of the coronavirus crash. In February and March 2020, global financial markets experienced one of the fastest downturns in history. The coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a virtual standstill and caused a massive decline in stock prices, unsettling many investors.
Our new blog post looks back at the events that led to this crash and analyses what lessons investors can learn from the Covid crash. Because as quickly as prices fell, they were also largely able to recover the losses.
China Prepares Itself for Trade War and Makes Plans to Get Economy Back on Track
China’s government wants to get the country’s stagnating economy back on track and is preparing for a trade dispute with the US. Under the motto “Made in China 2025,” the goal is to achieve growth of 5 percent. The focus is on key industries: Did you know that China has become the global market leader in renewable energies and produces by far the most electric cars worldwide?
Read more about this and investment opportunities with funds in our blog.
Trump on fire!
Donald Trump is getting serious and imposing temporary tariffs on his major trading partners. He is also escalating the war in Ukraine and increasing the pressure on Europe, which will hopefully soon be galvanized into unity with a new German Bundestag.
Winzer of the week: It’s getting more extreme
The new tariffs imposed by the US government and the reactions from Mexico, Canada and China make a trade war more likely. At the same time, the US economy is showing the first signs of weakening. All of this could mean a headwind for the financial markets.
Get Flexible – YOU INVEST funds are starting up again
From March, the YOU INVEST funds will be gradually reorganized. With the renaming to YOU INVEST FLEXIBLE, the funds will not only have a new name but also a more flexible investment strategy and new opportunities through additional diversified sub-funds in which the funds of the YOU INVEST family can invest from the realignment onwards. You can find all the information on the changeover in today’s blog post 👉
After the election, Germany is facing a change of direction
After the election in Germany, a two-party coalition could quickly be formed under the leadership of the CDU politician Merz. After five years of economic stagnation, the potential for a change of course is there. The trend-setting German stock index (DAX) is rising.
Investment View | February 2025
What’s happening on the markets? In our Investment View, the experts of our Investment Division regularly provide insights of current market events and their opinion on the various asset classes.
Trade conflict & Ukraine war: How structural change could affect the markets
In the global world order, much seems to be in a state of upheaval. The changes brought about by the new US administration are a structural change that is also affecting the financial markets. In our view, this scenario is currently the most likely 👉
Election in Germany: New government must lead the country out of the economic crisis
Following the premature end of the traffic light coalition, Germany will elect a new Bundestag in around a week’s time. The challenges for the future government are manifold. First and foremost, the weakening economy needs to be revitalised. We take a look at the real state of the EU’s former economic engine and what the parties have in store for the crisis.
The Tariff Man
Last Sunday, the US government announced new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, only to suspend them again shortly afterwards. How might the trade conflict develop? Is the EU also threatened with new tariffs?
Rising inflation expectations and yields: a risk for market sentiment?
Two developments on the stock markets have stood out since the beginning of the year: rising inflation expectations and significant increases in government bond yields. Could market sentiment soon turn frosty in view of this?
Trump’s tariff plans: a game with no winners?
On 20 January, the world will once again look to Washington with anticipation as Donald Trump is sworn in as US President for the second time in front of the Capitol. In any case, his statements and plans are already the focus of attention on the financial markets.
Trump is planning high import tariffs for goods, for example from Mexico and China. The possible consequences range from the threat of a trade war to a comeback of inflation. In the end, will no one benefit from the planned tariff measures?
Best of Charts: What’s coming, what’s going, what’s staying from 2024?
We can look back on an eventful year on the markets – although 2025 is also off to a somewhat turbulent start (at least in terms of domestic politics). In our first ‘Best of Charts’ of the new year, we look at what will remain of the stock market year 2024 and what we can expect in the coming months.
China prepares economic stimulus package in response to recession and looming trade war
The former growth engine China is having trouble getting back on track. Geopolitical tensions, the crisis in the domestic real estate sector and weak domestic consumption are hampering the country’s economy.
The government in Beijing is using billions in support measures not only to counter the economic downturn, but also to brace itself against the tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump. But can these measures also help the faltering Chinese stock market?
Market outlook 2025: what opportunities and challenges we can expect for next year
2025 brings significant political changes: First and foremost, a new (and at the same time old) US president, whose plans and intentions are not yet entirely clear. In Europe, meanwhile, we are facing economic challenges, but also opportunities due to possible interest rate cuts by the ECB. What can we expect from the coming year and how can investors position themselves? Read more about this in today’s blog post.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Traffic light coalition stop – fast lane or reform logjam in Germany?
First, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, and then the end of the coalition government: What does the German economy have to look forward to? Experts see major challenges ahead for the world’s fourth-largest economy. However, the upcoming elections also offer the potential for a fresh start. In today’s blog post, we discuss what this could look like.
USA – a country is voting on its future
The day of the US election has arrived, bringing an end to a long, intense and exciting election campaign. What economic course could the US enter after the election and what impact can be expected on the country’s already high debt level?
Deficit spiraling out of control: French government plans drastic austerity program
The high deficit in the French national budget is forcing the new government to implement drastic austerity measures. Investors are keeping a close eye on the announced plans, as the tense financial situation has been noticeable on the stock market for some time.
US elections: are the billions of investments in green technologies at risk?
Two years ago, the USA initiated its energy transition with the Inflation Reduction Act. This was followed by billions in subsidies and investments in renewable energies. What will happen to the Act if Donald Trump makes a comeback to the White House? Is the “Green Rush” in danger of coming to an end?
Autumn on the stock markets will be anything but boring
Election campaign, interest rate turnaround, sluggish growth in Europe – there should be no sign of autumn fatigue on the stock markets. What will the coming (and certainly exciting) weeks bring for the markets and how can investors prepare for them?
Best of Charts: The road (in)to the White House
Three weeks before election day, the race for the White House is wide open: While Kamala Harris is ahead in the nationwide polls, Donald Trump is currently likely to be ahead in the crucial “swing states”. In any case, the economic situation and mood in the USA are likely to play an important role in the race for the presidency.
Who’s afraid of Donald Trump?
Election Day in the US is getting closer and closer: Who is afraid of a Donald Trump presidency again? How might the stock markets react to the election result? A high-level panel discussed this at this year’s Erste.Investment.Forum.
Strong US labor market report: just an outlier?
In September, the US labor market performed surprisingly well, with significantly more new jobs created than expected. This has pushed back concerns about an impending recession, which is positive for the financial markets. Was the strong labor market report just an outlier, or is the US Federal Reserve perhaps on the right track to achieving the hoped-for “soft landing”?
Tense situation in the Middle East: Will oil prices rise again?
Oil prices have fallen significantly in the year to date, which also had a noticeable dampening effect on inflation. However, this could change with the further escalation in the Middle East. Following the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced retaliation.
Interest rate cuts at the door
After the rapid and sharp interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, the pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction. After the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates for the first time this Wednesday, thus initiating a new cycle of interest rate cuts. What does all this mean for the economy and what conclusions can be drawn from it for investments?
Risk of recession in Europe? Labor market data under the microscope
In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about the so-called Sahm Rule – a usually quite reliable recession indicator in the US that was triggered in August for the first time since the coronavirus crisis. There is no corresponding indicator for Europe so far, which raises the question: What is the risk of recession with regard to the European labor market?
Eastern Europe: Economies expected to outperform Euro Area
Weakening growth in the eurozone has been an issue on the markets for some time now. In the Central and Eastern European countries, however, this is largely a non-issue. According to forecasts, the region is also likely to grow faster than the eurozone this year. Private consumption in particular has recently proved to be a growth driver. However, the tense situation in German industry is causing concern.
The Sahm Rule: What is behind the recession indicator?
The Sahm Rule, an important recession indicator in the US, was triggered at the beginning of August – causing uncertainty on the markets. We explain what is behind the indicator and why everything could be different this time.
Japan: Back to Normality
The Japanese stock market quickly recovered from the slide at the beginning of the month. However, attention remains focused on the Japanese central bank after it announced that it would hold off on further interest rate hikes for the time being. However, the Bank of Japan’s direction of travel seems clear: away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years.
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Economic outlook: soft landing with risks attached
On the stock markets, the focus is shifting back to the downside risks. Nevertheless, there are still hopes that inflation will gradually fall and that there will be no recession. But how realistic are the hopes for this “soft landing” of the economy and how can investors position themselves in the current environment?
Losses on the stock markets: an overview of the reasons and consequences
There was little to cheer about on the stock markets at the start of the week: there were significant price losses in both Europe and the USA and the Japanese Nikkei-225 recorded one of the biggest daily losses in its history. What were the reasons for Monday’s sharp sell-off, what impact could the latest events have on the markets and what will happen with the increasingly weak economy?
Will the gold rally continue?
The price of gold has recently climbed from one high to the next. The rally seems almost puzzling due to a number of negative factors in the first half of the year. However, two reasons in particular provided plenty of tailwind. Can the rally go even further?
The new age of protectionism
The path towards a clearly fragmented global economy is continuing. Recently, the increase in tariffs on Chinese electric cars in the USA and the European Union has been particularly noticeable. What impact is the rise of protectionism having on the global economy?
After Biden’s withdrawal: What plans does Kamala Harris have for the economy?
The withdrawal of incumbent US President Joe Biden from the presidential race is bringing new momentum to the election campaign. Kamala Harris, currently Vice President under Biden, is now seen as the likely Democratic candidate. What policies could Harris stand for and what plans could she have for the US economy?
How do climate leaders find their way into our fixed-income portfolios?
Sustainability factors are actively integrated into the investment process in our bond portfolios. This ensures that climate risks are minimized and climate opportunities are actively seized in our corporate bond funds. Fund manager Matthias Hauser explains exactly how this works.
Engagement and voting – worth our while?
Dialogue with management and the active exercise of voting rights are intended to encourage companies to operate in a more environmentally friendly and socially responsible manner – engagement & voting is the keyword. But what are the benefits of these measures? An overview of scientific studies on this topic provides interesting results.
Soft landing beats political uncertainty
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
Market commentary: What will the second half of 2024 bring?
The second half of 2024 has already kicked off on the financial markets – but what can investors expect from it? After expectations of interest rate cuts in the US were pushed back further and further in the first half of the year, the scope for the US Federal Reserve could increase again in the remainder of the year. The main focus is likely to be on upcoming political decisions – which could also lead to greater fluctuations.
France and UK face economic policy decisions after elections
The recent elections in France and the UK have brought about a realignment of the political balance of power in both countries and thus also a new start for economic policy in the two major economies. What lies ahead for the two countries?
Signs of a slowdown: more scope for central banks?
Economic and political uncertainty is increasing. Nevertheless, inflation is falling in the USA and the eurozone. This increases the scope for central banks to react to a slowdown in economic growth by lowering key interest rates.
Market update: Economists see Germany economy regaining momentum
In football, things have been going well for the European Championship host country Germany recently with its place in the round of 16, but the economy has been in the doldrums in recent quarters. According to leading economists, this could now change. Positive signals from industry and private consumption indicate that the German economy is regaining momentum.
Nationalist forces strengthened in the EU: what could be the consequences?
In the EU parliamentary elections, right-wing parties made significant gains in some major countries. In France, early elections are now on the cards following President Macron’s defeat. What possible effects could a shift to the right have in the EU?