One of the most important economic indicators, the global purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, fell in June compared to the previous month. Is that bad news for risky asset classes like stocks? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the most important scenarios.
THIS AUTHOR'S POSTS
The Fed is a dove
Equities have been weaker in recent days. This is largely due to concerns that sooner-than-expected interest rate increases in the USA could be detrimental to the financial market. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains why in the most likely case scenario, this will not be happening in the foreseeable future.
Rapid recovery in the developed world
The global economy is caught between a strong recovery and inflation fears. Despite low risk premiums, Erste AM Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer continues to see opportunities for equities as long as bond yields rise less than corporate earnings growth rates. Read more in his blog analysis.
Yield curve management
In recent days, equities and other risky asset classes have come under pressure despite the fact that in the year to date the optimism about an economic recovery has been on the rise. Is that a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”? Had the good news already been priced into the market? Or is there another mechanism that could be driving the future development?
Tensions are rising in the run-up to the US elections
The US elections in November are not only important from a geopolitical perspective. The race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the presidency also influences events on the financial markets.
Labour day: High unemployment challenges economic policy-makers
It is now that we are becoming acutely aware of how important work is for us, with the job market data taking to centre stage on this year’s Labour Day. The number of people who are out of a job because of the pandemic has increased drastically. Numerous measures, such as reduced working hours in Austria, have been taken in an effort to contain the situation. We expect a positive trend reversal later in the year.
The long-term consequences of the corona pandemic – an analysis
The corona pandemic has plunged the world into an economic crisis. Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes the 10 most important points about recovery, economic policy, inflation and the duration of the slump.
Coronacession
The world is in a state of emergency, with the corona pandemic constituting a global health, economic, and financial crisis. The term “Coronacession” has been created as a chimaera of corona and recession. The central question is how deep the emergency runs and how long it will last. The speed of the development is breath-taking. […]
Distortions on the financial market
The distortions on the financial market continue, and the prices of risky asset classes such as equities and corporate bonds with low credit quality are falling. Market prices have increasingly come to reflect a global recession.
Coronavirus: epidemic in China disrupts recovery scenario
Coronavirus: The economy is increasingly affected by the virus crisis. Will China’s economy be able to withstand the pressure despite resistance? Analysis by Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer.