In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about the so-called Sahm Rule – a usually quite reliable recession indicator in the US that was triggered in August for the first time since the coronavirus crisis. There is no corresponding indicator for Europe so far, which raises the question: What is the risk of recession with regard to the European labor market?
Article on tag "Unemployment"
Labour day: High unemployment challenges economic policy-makers
It is now that we are becoming acutely aware of how important work is for us, with the job market data taking to centre stage on this year’s Labour Day. The number of people who are out of a job because of the pandemic has increased drastically. Numerous measures, such as reduced working hours in Austria, have been taken in an effort to contain the situation. We expect a positive trend reversal later in the year.
Slovakia: moving towards long-term sustainability?
The engine of the economy in Slovakia is running on a good momentum. In recent years it has been going through a cyclical upswing. Take a look at the drivers, but also consider potential threats going forward.
After the interest rate hike is before the interest rate hike?
Imagine a fairy that grants you three wishes. What would you wish for? The answer would be very easy for me. I would just like to know if the economy is caught up in a recession of has embarked on an expansionary phase a year from now…
Increase in inflation has come to an end for now
Two developments are prominently noticeable on the markets at the moment: on the one hand, the indicators of real economic growth suggest a stable real economic growth rate of about 3%. On the other hand, we have seen global consumer price inflation decline since the beginning of the year. The reflation phase, i.e. the general increase in inflation in the second half of 2016, seems to be over (for now).