Can price stability, i.e. inflation of 2%, be achieved without a recession? The further decline in inflation in the US in June has raised expectations for this favourable scenario. However, a look in the rear-view mirror calls for caution. In the past, a central bank-induced decline in inflation has often been accompanied by a recession.
Article on tag "interest rates"
Recession, inflation, key interest rates: Economic outlook for the second half of the year
The feared recession has so far failed to materialise and inflation is also falling. Nevertheless, the risks remain on the downside. What could be in store for the markets in the second half of the year?
“A mild economic downturn has already been priced in by the market”
With the ERSTE REAL ASSETS mixed fund, investors can invest in real assets – and have indeed been doing so for two years now. On the occasion of the fund’s two-year anniversary, Philip Schifferegger, fund manager of ERSTE REAL ASSETS, is taking a look at the current market situation. He also explains why the fund is well equipped for both positive and negative market phases.
Central banks weigh risks
Most recently, central banks have signaled a somewhat less sharpish stance, as an effect of the rapid key rate hikes on the monetary environment has already become visible. However, recent economic data are dampening hopes for a rapid decline in inflation, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains in his market commentary.
IMF/World Bank Group spring meetings 2023
The annual Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank bring together high-ranking representatives from business, the financial sector and politics. Fund manager
Tolgahan Memişoğlu reports on his impressions.
Banking problems support share prices
Since the banking problems in the US emerged in March, share prices have risen and expectations for future key interest rates have fallen significantly. However, inflation dynamics remain the most important factor for the markets, but unfortunately also one that is difficult to assess.
Risk inflation persistence
Inflation, which remains too high, continues to be the dominant macroeconomic issue. Hopes that inflation will fall as quickly as it has risen have been dampened, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer explains in his market commentary.
Positive January on the markets
On the stock markets, the first month of the year was positive. The recent softer tones of the central banks give rise to hopes that interest rate hikes are slowly coming to an end. Read more about the current market assessment in our Investment Update.
Market commentary: What will the new year 2023 bring?
In the past year, numerous trouble spots preoccupied the markets. In his market commentary, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, gives an outlook on what 2023 might bring.
Hawkish holidays from the Bank of Japan
Last week, the Japanese central bank made the last major monetary policy decision of 2022, bringing an eventful year to an end – also from a central bank perspective.