Erste Asset Management - Blog

Artikel zu Schlagwort: Eurozone
Gast-AutorIn / Guest Author am 05th March 2018

Quo Vadis Italia? – The 2018 general election in Italy and its importance to the economy


The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.

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Gerhard Winzer am 06th June 2017

The global economy based on the Goldilocks principle

(c) iStock

The global economy is growing moderately, inflation is low, and the monetary policy is loose. This environment supports many asset classes from bonds to equities. The political uncertainty has been absorbed rather well so far too. Will this situation last?

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Gerhard Winzer am 02nd December 2016

Italy – the third domino

© iStock

On Sunday 4 December Italy will be holding a referendum on an amendment to the constitution. This is relevant particularly because in case of a rejection, the political uncertainty would increase.

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Gerhard Winzer am 28th October 2015

Mario Draghi – Deflation Fighter


The arguments supporting a further rise in share prices have become stronger. The important central banks have been sending expansive signals in recent weeks, i.e. signals that support the economy and the markets. The latest measure was the statement made by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, at the ECB press conference on 22 October.

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Gerhard Winzer am 25th August 2015

“Black Monday” at the stock exchanges: Why?

© iStock

Market correction

Equities, bonds affected by default risk, commodities, and emerging markets currencies are currently subject to corrections, which, noticeably, have now gone beyond the purview of emerging markets: while the emerging markets equity index declined by almost 6% (Performance-Data Source: Bloomberg, MSCI) last week, the index for developed markets lost 5.3% (Performance-Data Source: Bloomberg, MSCI). The fear that the economic weakening in the emerging markets might come with significant spill-over effects for the industrialised countries has increased. This prompts the question whether a phase of profound corrections is upon us in the risky asset classes. The question alone has caused the risk aversion of investors to rise. The liquidity is temporarily parked in safe havens such as US Treasury bonds, the euro, and the Japanese yen.

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Gerhard Winzer am 31st July 2015

China weighs heavy on commodity prices and production


Global GDP growth has probably only increased marginally in Q2 after the very weak Q1. Economic activity has thus remained disappointingly weak on a global scale.

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Gerhard Winzer am 06th July 2015

Parallel currency in Greece?

© Fotolia

Last Sunday, the Greek people decided with a clear majority to follow the proposal of their government. With 61.3%, the No camp rejected the conditions of the expired adjustment program. Thereby, Greece is one step closer to an exit from the Eurozone and the European Union.

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Paul Severin am 01st July 2015

Upswing in equity markets expected for second half of the year

Photo: iStock

Developed equity markets are in the 6th year of a robust upward move. The MSCI Developed World Index rose by almost 18% per annum over the period (Mar 2009-June 2015) in Euro-terms. However, momentum has stalled in recent months. Stepan Mikolasek, new head of equity management of Erste Asset Management, names the main reasons: surprisingly weak US economic growth in the first quarter, concerns about China’s economy, the fear of a Fed rate hike and growing risk related to the Greek situation.

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Gerhard Winzer am 08th April 2015

Macro data: Dynamics down

Foto: iStock

The dynamics of the economy and the markets have declined. Global economic growth is down on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the two most important trends of the past months (appreciation of the US dollar and falling oil price) have come to a halt, inflation is not falling anymore, and the US Fed has put a damper on the expectations of interest hikes. One important exception: the Eurozone has been picking up speed.

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Gerhard Winzer am 19th March 2015

Two canaries in the coalmine


The US dollar has appreciated significantly vis-à-vis the euro in the past months. For this trend to continue, at least two developments would have to be in place. Firstly, the US Fed would have to abandon its zero interest rate policy; and secondly, the ECB would have to remain on its path of negative interest rate policy and bond purchases.

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