All articles on the topic “Markets”
Strong US labor market report: just an outlier?
In September, the US labor market performed surprisingly well, with significantly more new jobs created than expected. This has pushed back concerns about an impending recession, which is positive for the financial markets. Was the strong labor market report just an outlier, or is the US Federal Reserve perhaps on the right track to achieving the hoped-for “soft landing”?
Tense situation in the Middle East: Will oil prices rise again?
Oil prices have fallen significantly in the year to date, which also had a noticeable dampening effect on inflation. However, this could change with the further escalation in the Middle East. Following the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced retaliation.
Interest rate cuts at the door
After the rapid and sharp interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, the pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction. After the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates for the first time this Wednesday, thus initiating a new cycle of interest rate cuts. What does all this mean for the economy and what conclusions can be drawn from it for investments?
Risk of recession in Europe? Labor market data under the microscope
In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about the so-called Sahm Rule – a usually quite reliable recession indicator in the US that was triggered in August for the first time since the coronavirus crisis. There is no corresponding indicator for Europe so far, which raises the question: What is the risk of recession with regard to the European labor market?
Eastern Europe: Economies expected to outperform Euro Area
Weakening growth in the eurozone has been an issue on the markets for some time now. In the Central and Eastern European countries, however, this is largely a non-issue. According to forecasts, the region is also likely to grow faster than the eurozone this year. Private consumption in particular has recently proved to be a growth driver. However, the tense situation in German industry is causing concern.
The Sahm Rule: What is behind the recession indicator?
The Sahm Rule, an important recession indicator in the US, was triggered at the beginning of August – causing uncertainty on the markets. We explain what is behind the indicator and why everything could be different this time.
Japan: Back to Normality
The Japanese stock market quickly recovered from the slide at the beginning of the month. However, attention remains focused on the Japanese central bank after it announced that it would hold off on further interest rate hikes for the time being. However, the Bank of Japan’s direction of travel seems clear: away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years.
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Economic outlook: soft landing with risks attached
On the stock markets, the focus is shifting back to the downside risks. Nevertheless, there are still hopes that inflation will gradually fall and that there will be no recession. But how realistic are the hopes for this “soft landing” of the economy and how can investors position themselves in the current environment?
Losses on the stock markets: an overview of the reasons and consequences
There was little to cheer about on the stock markets at the start of the week: there were significant price losses in both Europe and the USA and the Japanese Nikkei-225 recorded one of the biggest daily losses in its history. What were the reasons for Monday’s sharp sell-off, what impact could the latest events have on the markets and what will happen with the increasingly weak economy?
Will the gold rally continue?
The price of gold has recently climbed from one high to the next. The rally seems almost puzzling due to a number of negative factors in the first half of the year. However, two reasons in particular provided plenty of tailwind. Can the rally go even further?
The new age of protectionism
The path towards a clearly fragmented global economy is continuing. Recently, the increase in tariffs on Chinese electric cars in the USA and the European Union has been particularly noticeable. What impact is the rise of protectionism having on the global economy?
After Biden’s withdrawal: What plans does Kamala Harris have for the economy?
The withdrawal of incumbent US President Joe Biden from the presidential race is bringing new momentum to the election campaign. Kamala Harris, currently Vice President under Biden, is now seen as the likely Democratic candidate. What policies could Harris stand for and what plans could she have for the US economy?
How do climate leaders find their way into our fixed-income portfolios?
Sustainability factors are actively integrated into the investment process in our bond portfolios. This ensures that climate risks are minimized and climate opportunities are actively seized in our corporate bond funds. Fund manager Matthias Hauser explains exactly how this works.
Engagement and voting – worth our while?
Dialogue with management and the active exercise of voting rights are intended to encourage companies to operate in a more environmentally friendly and socially responsible manner – engagement & voting is the keyword. But what are the benefits of these measures? An overview of scientific studies on this topic provides interesting results.
Soft landing beats political uncertainty
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
Market commentary: What will the second half of 2024 bring?
The second half of 2024 has already kicked off on the financial markets – but what can investors expect from it? After expectations of interest rate cuts in the US were pushed back further and further in the first half of the year, the scope for the US Federal Reserve could increase again in the remainder of the year. The main focus is likely to be on upcoming political decisions – which could also lead to greater fluctuations.
France and UK face economic policy decisions after elections
The recent elections in France and the UK have brought about a realignment of the political balance of power in both countries and thus also a new start for economic policy in the two major economies. What lies ahead for the two countries?
Signs of a slowdown: more scope for central banks?
Economic and political uncertainty is increasing. Nevertheless, inflation is falling in the USA and the eurozone. This increases the scope for central banks to react to a slowdown in economic growth by lowering key interest rates.
Market update: Economists see Germany economy regaining momentum
In football, things have been going well for the European Championship host country Germany recently with its place in the round of 16, but the economy has been in the doldrums in recent quarters. According to leading economists, this could now change. Positive signals from industry and private consumption indicate that the German economy is regaining momentum.
Nationalist forces strengthened in the EU: what could be the consequences?
In the EU parliamentary elections, right-wing parties made significant gains in some major countries. In France, early elections are now on the cards following President Macron’s defeat. What possible effects could a shift to the right have in the EU?
Europe’s Economy Faces Major Challenges After Parliament Elections
The European People’s Party (EPP) remained the strongest group in the EU Parliament in last Sunday’s EU elections. Right-wing populist parties made significant gains in many of the 27 EU member states. What impact will the election result have?
ECB interest rate policy: First rate cut, and then?
The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate tomorrow for the first time since the interest rate turnaround in 2022. But what comes next? Will the first cut herald a series of interest rate cuts or will the monetary guardians remain cautious? Chief economist Gerhard Winzer takes a look at the ECB’s possible future interest rate policy.
ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX: the most important questions and answers
Taking advantage of short- and medium-term opportunities on the markets while at the same time focusing on long-term future trends – the new mixed fund ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX makes this possible. We have summarized the most important questions and answers on the launch of the new fund.
China hopes to extend its export boom with continued investments
Thanks to booming exports, the Chinese economy started the year with surprisingly strong growth. As growth has now lost some of its momentum, the aim is to keep the export boom going with new investments. However, this could have a negative impact on the trade dispute with the US and the EU.
International Monetary Fund/World Bank Group Spring Meetings 2024
At this year’s spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the focus was on the increasingly unlikely recession in the USA as well as the future monetary policy and the political situation. Fund manager Tolgahan Memİşoğlu reports on his impressions.
Short-term opportunities or long-term trends – why not both?
Investing in the major trends of the future while taking advantage of short-term market opportunities – the new mixed fund ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX makes this possible. Alexander Lechner, Head of Multi Asset Management, explains the concept behind the fund in an interview.
Investment strategy: What happened to the recession?
The topic of an impending recession has recently become quieter again – especially in the USA. A look at a few indicators helps to assess whether the spectre of recession has actually been banished (at least for the time being).
20th Anniversary of the 2004 EU Enlargement: The Success Story Continues
The EU is celebrating a political and economic success story with the 20th anniversary of the EU’s eastward enlargement on 1 May. The countries that joined at that time and those that followed have caught up massively in economic terms. The signs continue to point to solid growth in the region.
At the pulse of opportunity – new mixed fund about to launch!
Combining long-term trend themes with short and medium-term market opportunities: The new broadly diversified mixed fund ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX makes this possible with its active and flexible approach.
Animal Spirits – Excessively positive sentiment on the markets?
The stock markets performed consistently well in the first quarter of the current year. From the USA to Europe and Japan, many indices reached new all-time highs. In view of this positive performance, can we already speak of exaggerated euphoria on the markets?
Attack on Israel
The smouldering conflagration in the Middle East reached a new level of escalation last weekend. Iran attacked Israel directly with drones and missiles for the first time in history. There is a risk of further escalation between Iran and Israel. How is the market reacting to this?
“Back to business” after the election in India?
The parliamentary elections in India, which will last 44 days, will begin in the coming days. The economically up-and-coming country has also recently become the most populous country in the world. What can we expect from the election and how could India develop afterwards?
Favorable indicators: Soft landing on approach?
More and more indicators are pointing to good global growth. Even regions and sectors that had recently weakened are likely to return to growth. The soft landing after the sharp rise in inflation and the turnaround in interest rates could succeed. The decline in inflation is pausing at the same time, as yesterday’s US inflation data shows.
Interest rate cuts and economic growth – a favourable environment for the markets
Even though the ECB recently left its key interest rate unchanged, central banks are increasingly signaling an inclination to cut interest rates for the first time. At the same time, the indicators point to good economic growth at a global level. These are positive signals for the stock markets.
What is the key interest rate?
Ahead of the ECB’s upcoming interest rate decision, there is much discussion about the central banks’ interest rate policy and the key interest rate – will it be lowered or not? Its development has a significant influence on the economy and the financial markets. In this article, we discuss the role of the key interest rate and which interest rates are relevant.
Swimming against the tide with alternative investments
Alternative investment strategies are not comparable with traditional asset classes such as equities or bonds – this is precisely their charm. But how do these strategies work and how can investors invest in them?
Global Economy: IMF with more positive outlook
According to the IMF, the global economy could grow more strongly than expected this year. In the US and China, the economy is likely to remain robust, although growth in the People’s Republic is likely to weaken. The experts are less optimistic about the German economy.
US interest rates: What are we to expect in the coming months?
As the latest data shows, the US economy continues to grow strongly – despite the significant interest rate hikes in the past two years. What impact will this have on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy and when could the first rate cuts follow?
Davos 2024: Climate Crisis, AI, geopolitics and interest rates were key topics
Last week, many high-ranking representatives from politics and business once again gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the annual World Economic Forum. The most pressing topics were the use of AI, the climate crisis and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, central bankers made interesting statements on future interest rate policy.
Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
After the price rally at the end of last year, the markets started 2024 with price losses. The ongoing positive correlation between bonds and equities is striking. Both asset classes have fallen equally recently, which makes diversification in a portfolio more difficult. But the year has only just begun. We therefore take a look at 10 key topics for 2024 that could be helpful when putting together a portfolio.
Money tip: Invest in Japanese stocks
Following the recent gains in the Japanese benchmark index, the stock market of the world’s third-largest economy could be worth a look. What is the state of the economy and monetary policy in the “Land of the Rising Sun” and how can investors invest in Japanese stocks?
Market outlook: What investors can expect in 2024
2023 brought many surprises – including positive ones, such as the unexpectedly good performance across all asset classes. What can investors expect in the new year and which topics could come into focus? Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, provides an outlook.
US elections 2024: The United States and its debt
In 2024, all eyes on the financial markets are also focused on the US elections in November. After years of expansionary fiscal policy, the debt situation in the United States is also coming back into focus in the run-up to the elections. What are the political and economic implications of the growing budget deficit?
Stock markets review: Hopes for interest rate cuts fuelled significant gains in 2023
The international stock markets closed out 2023 with significant gains. Hopes of abating inflationary pressure and declining interest rates were the main market drivers in Q4, resulting in a strong year for stock exchanges.
Best of Charts: What’s coming, what’s going, what’s staying?
After a weak market year in 2022, 2023 is shaping up to be a pleasing conclusion for investors. Senior Fund Manager Christian Süttinger explains what remains of this year and what could be of particular interest on the markets in 2024 with the help of a few currently important charts.
Argentina: Javier Milei Presidente! Wind of Change?
Following his surprising election victory, the controversial economist and self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei was sworn in as Argentina’s new president. He takes over a country in economic crisis with an annual inflation rate of over 100 percent and a high debt burden.
Capital markets outlook 2024: good opportunities in the US election year
After a difficult market year in 2022, many asset classes performed much better this year. The outlook for the coming year 2024 is also positive – the central banks’ turnaround in interest rates has brought about a return to normality on the bond market and, with the rise in yields, is also opening up new opportunities for investors. At the same time, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in particular pose a challenge. With the improved yield opportunities for bonds, mixed funds are also coming back into focus.
Members of OPEC+ plan to further cut oil production
The OPEC+ oil association was unable to agree on official production cuts at its meeting last Thursday. However, individual member states announced plans for cuts. In a joint statement after the meeting, the more than twenty OPEC+ states also announced that Brazil would join the production alliance at the beginning of next year.
Increasing optimism for a “soft” economic landing
While equities have recently risen, yields on the bond market have weakened. The markets are being supported by increasing hopes of a “soft” landing for the economy. What are the chances of this scenario?