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Article on tag "USA"

Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024
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Inflation, interest rates, markets: 10 topics for 2024

After the price rally at the end of last year, the markets started 2024 with price losses. The ongoing positive correlation between bonds and equities is striking. Both asset classes have fallen equally recently, which makes diversification in a portfolio more difficult. But the year has only just begun. We therefore take a look at 10 key topics for 2024 that could be helpful when putting together a portfolio.

US elections 2024: The United States and its debt
US elections 2024: The United States and its debt
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US elections 2024: The United States and its debt

In 2024, all eyes on the financial markets are also focused on the US elections in November. After years of expansionary fiscal policy, the debt situation in the United States is also coming back into focus in the run-up to the elections. What are the political and economic implications of the growing budget deficit?

Encouraging fall in inflation
Encouraging fall in inflation
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Encouraging fall in inflation

Since the beginning of November the prices of both risky security classes such as equities and credit-safe government bonds have been on the rise. The market appears to be increasingly pricing in a so-called “soft” landing for the economy. The probability of this actually increased over the course of the year. However, the economic data published in recent weeks and months does not contradict the “hard” landing scenario.

Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment
Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment
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Soft-landing optimism might be in for some disappointment

The financial environment has become slightly more relaxed since the beginning of November. This fact is manifesting itself on the market in the form of falling yields and rising share prices. This week, two indicators relating to the US economy in particular could provide clues as to the sustainability of this trend since the beginning of the month: retail sales and consumer prices.

Middle East Conflict continues: worries about expansion to other countries
Middle East Conflict continues: worries about expansion to other countries
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Middle East Conflict continues: worries about expansion to other countries

Roughly two weeks after the surprising terrorist attacks by the radical Islamic Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, on targets in Israel, the military conflict in the country continues unabated. The war in the region also continues to dominate the financial and commodity markets, with global concerns that the conflict could possibly spread to other countries in the Middle East being the main driver of uncertainty.

Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?
Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?
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Market commentary: Is the interest rate peak reached?

“Higher for longer” has become the mantra of the powerful central bankers in recent months. Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive longer than originally expected. Regardless of whether the major central banks will follow up with a final interest rate step in autumn, the interest rate peak has probably been reached and “the worst” is behind us.

How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?
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How restrictive are the current interest rate policy and financial environment really?

In line with the surprisingly strong economic indicators in the US, government bond yields have risen significantly in recent months. This is putting pressure on the prices of many classes of securities and intensifying discussions about how restrictive interest rate policy really is. Could the higher level of yields make the central bank’s job easier in the form of further interest rate hikes?