Since the beginning of the year, the bond markets have been in a bear market. What are the implications for the economy? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyzes three models in relation to the development of inflation and their implications.
Inflation, the war in Ukraine and monetary policy are driving the markets and stoking fears of an impending recession. Initial economic indicators also point to gloomy growth prospects.
Inflation has been the underlying factor in economy for some time. A recovery of GDP on a pre-pandemic level should be reached soon. The probability of a growth phase has increased. What further developments are expected?
The Commodores around Lionel Richie landed a hit with their song “Easy” in 1977. The monetary policy of the central banks remains just as “easy”. Update from the Investment Division
“Markets recovery”: High yields, EU peripheral government bonds and emerging market bonds posted gains. Update from the Investment Division.
What has occurred since yesterday ? Gus Backus celebrated in the 1960s some successes in the German Pop music charts. It is remarkable that in the 50s he also scored two top ten hits in the USA. In the chorus in one of his songs he sings: “Who should pay that, who ordered that, who […]
The European media has been paying attention to unorthodox economic policies in Hungary for years, supporting or opposing them depending where they stand on the political spectrum. At the same time Hungarian decision makers always stress they represent normality. Nowadays the question is: should we finally expect both monetary and fiscal policy normalization in the following years?
The environment on the financial markets has become a bit bleaker. Growth rates of industrial output and the survey-based indicators for economic growth are falling, while the trade conflict between the USA and China and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has caused the risk for global growth to increase further. Will the environment remain generally supportive to risky asset classes?
The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.
There are many factors that may affect inflation. Also, the weights of certain factors may vary across countries. Take the development of the exchange rate, for example.
