In recent months, the risk of stagflation (the simultaneous occurrence of economic stagnation and inflation) has increased. Without the pandemic, output would be higher and inflation lower: bottlenecks in production and logistics have slowed economic activity and caused prices in the goods sector to rise sharply.
The global economy is in the recovery phase of the cycle. Economic growth is well above the long-term trend, but headwinds have increased recently. What needs to happen to ensure that growth does not slow down? Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer analyses the prospects for the future.
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid recovery of the economy has mainly supported securities such as equities. But what happens next? Erste AM Managing Director Heinz Bednar and Head of Multi Asset Alexander Lechner explain how the second half of 2021 and especially our focus on sustainability will continue to develop in our outlook for the next six months.
The strong economic recovery and positive corporate results are fueling concerns about the emergence of inflation. But are these fears justified? Erste Asset Management equity expert Tamas Menyhart analyzes the situation on the stock exchanges and shows ways of guarding against inflation.
The global economy is caught between a strong recovery and inflation fears. Despite low risk premiums, Erste AM Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer continues to see opportunities for equities as long as bond yields rise less than corporate earnings growth rates. Read more in his blog analysis.
In recent days, equities and other risky asset classes have come under pressure despite the fact that in the year to date the optimism about an economic recovery has been on the rise. Is that a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”? Had the good news already been priced into the market? Or is there another mechanism that could be driving the future development?
In view of the still rampant Corona pandemic, the EU Commission has recently lowered its growth forecasts for 2021. With the delays in some EU countries’ vaccination programmes, the lockdowns could also drag on, delaying the expected economic recovery, the Commission argues.
The interest rates seem to have been going one way for years – down. With the exception of a few corrections, the taboo has been broken for many years that bond yields should have to be positive all the time.
At the beginning of September, the FED announced a significant change in their policy: They officially announced the implementation of “average inflation targeting”. This allows to have a higher inflation rate for a period of time instead of being closely held to the target inflation rate of 2%.
Why did the FED announce this shift in its policy? Is inflation returning in the agenda? In this article, we intend to show the policy requirements for high(er) inflation.
Many asset classes recorded significant gains. At the same time, the falling tendency of numerous economic indicators has suggested a slowdown in GDP growth. How do these two go together?
