Coronavirus: The economy is increasingly affected by the virus crisis. Will China’s economy be able to withstand the pressure despite resistance? Analysis by Erste AM chief economist Gerhard Winzer.
The engine of the economy in Slovakia is running on a good momentum. In recent years it has been going through a cyclical upswing. Take a look at the drivers, but also consider potential threats going forward.
Annualised real global GDP growth amounts to slightly above 3%. The composition of growth is not homogenuous. While the US economy grows strongly, the weakening loan growths puts weight on the economic activity in China. Find out more in the current yield radar.
The performance of most asset classes in the year to date has been mixed, to put it euphemistically. Is there a common underlying factor? Can we expect to see a better second half of the year?
In the beginning of July our Investment Committee held its monthly meeting. Despite a largely negative month on the markets, our risk stance has hardly changed relative to the previous month.
The environment on the financial markets has become a bit bleaker. Growth rates of industrial output and the survey-based indicators for economic growth are falling, while the trade conflict between the USA and China and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has caused the risk for global growth to increase further. Will the environment remain generally supportive to risky asset classes?
The economic environment for Italy remains challenging. The fundamental problem is the low economic growth. Although the composition of the future government is still unclear, the party programs imply a persistent reform deadlock.
The economic environment for the capital markets is subject to change as we speak. About one and a half years ago, the global economy shifted from recovery to boom, which was very advantageous for the markets. The features were strong, broadly based economic growth, low inflation, very supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and limited price fluctuations on the markets. We have now started leaving this best of all worlds (“Goldilocks scenario”) in more and more categories.
The current environment is very positive for the capital markets: strong growth, low inflation, supportive monetary policies, good earnings growth, and low volatilities, i.e. fluctuations. Also, the numerous risks have not had a significantly negative impact on prices. However, the phase of rising prices started as early as March 2009.
Economic growth has increased significantly on a global scale and is broadly supported. According to our preliminary estimate, global GDP recorded a growth rate of 3.7% from Q1 to Q2 (annualised). While the developed economies have presumably grown by 2.7%, the emerging economies posted a growth rate of 5.2%. In this article, we would like to take a closer look at the emerging markets on the basis of classic economic indicators.