At present, indicators on inflation and economic activity are competing to determine which of the two categories is more important for the financial market. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.

At present, indicators on inflation and economic activity are competing to determine which of the two categories is more important for the financial market. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
After months of market turmoil, the experts of Erste Asset Management can see light at the end of the tunnel despite the global economic challenges. There is a chance that the predicted recession in 2023 would not hit, or if it did, it would do so only mildly, as stated at the press conference on the Capital Market Outlook 2023.
Hands off Chinese equities? The confirmation of another term in office for China’s state and party leader Xi Jinping triggered a plunge in share prices on the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Equities Technology in particular came under pressure. What happens now?
The mood on the capital markets has deteriorated further over the last months. In a comprehensive market update, Gerald Stadlbauer, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management at Erste Asset Management, explains why stamina is needed in the current situation.
The central banks want to achieve their long-term inflation target of 2%. In order to achieve this goal, they have raised key interest rates and are implementing a restrictive monetary policy. The higher key interest rates will weaken economic growth and also the labour market. Whether this can be achieved without a recession or whether there will be a “soft landing” is currently the subject of heated debate.
Many economic indicators point to weakening economic momentum. Meanwhile, the US labor market continues to be very robust, which recently mitigated the immediate risks of recession in the United States.
China’s economy is on a downward slide: exports and freight traffic are at their lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. Investors are turning their backs on the country. Has the bottom now been reached?
The global economy has been confronted with two stagflationary events in the last two years: the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. What factors are influencing the uncertainty in the markets? Erste Asset Management Chief Economist Winzer analyzes which scenarios are conceivable in the future.
Waves of infections will continue to influence economic activity and the markets. What will happen in China, what are the inflation risks and will it be volatile? Our chief economist Gerhard Winzer has drawn up 10 theses for the year 2022.
We are now into the third year of the pandemic. Since the spring 2020 collapse, economic activity and markets have shown exceptional resilience. This is not to be taken for granted. After all, the list of potential negative influences (“challenges”) is long.