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In the past, sharp hikes in key interest rates often triggered a recession. After the latest economic and labour market data, hopes are growing for a soft landing of the economy.
Article on tag "China"
What are the lasting results of the central bank meeting in Jackson Hole?
At the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, summed up the uncertain environment as “navigating by the stars in a cloudy sky”. This relates, among other things, to the uncertainty about the level of the neutral interest rate, the lagged effect of key-lending rate hikes on economic growth and inflation, and the drivers of inflation.
The known unknown: China’s recovery proves more difficult than expected
After getting off to a good start at the outset of the year, economic recovery in China has recently stalled again. Following the lifting of stringent measures to contain the pandemic, the path out of the crisis is proving slower than expected. The flagging domestic demand as well as the ailing real estate sector, have recently put a damper on the world’s second-largest economy.
Soft landing with risks
Currently, the most important indicators point to average global economic growth and falling inflation. The probability of an immediate recession has decreased significantly. But the risks in the medium term remain. Chief economist Gerhard Winzer explains which three scenarios are currently emerging in the blog post.
How high do key interest rates still climb?
Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the USA raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points last week. However, both central banks signalled that the end of the cycle is near – or may even have already been reached after the recent rate hikes.
Meager Growth
Global growth is likely to cool significantly in the second quarter. At the same time, recession risks remain uncomfortably high, as Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer writes in his market commentary. The further course of negotiations on the US debt ceiling is also likely to cause tension on the market.
Where is the recession?
The global economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, inflation remains too high, which is why central banks will continue to pursue a restrictive monetary policy. Although growth indicators are good to strong, there are therefore increased risks of recession.
China Aiming for Fast Economic Recovery After End Of Covid Restrictions
After the lifting of the Corona restrictions, mighty China is back on track for growth. Also the global economy is benefiting from this. In any case, the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges started the “Year of the Rabbit” on a positive note.
Tug of war
At present, indicators on inflation and economic activity are competing to determine which of the two categories is more important for the financial market. Read more in the current market commentary by Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer.
Capital Market Outlook 2023: Upward potential for funds after market corrections
After months of market turmoil, the experts of Erste Asset Management can see light at the end of the tunnel despite the global economic challenges. There is a chance that the predicted recession in 2023 would not hit, or if it did, it would do so only mildly, as stated at the press conference on the Capital Market Outlook 2023.