Latest Posts
USA – a country is voting on its future
The day of the US election has arrived, bringing an end to a long, intense and exciting election campaign. What economic course could the US enter after the election and what impact can be expected on the country’s already high debt level?
Deficit spiraling out of control: French government plans drastic austerity program
The high deficit in the French national budget is forcing the new government to implement drastic austerity measures. Investors are keeping a close eye on the announced plans, as the tense financial situation has been noticeable on the stock market for some time.
The four seasons: when should I buy equities, Bitcoin, or gold?
Just as in nature, there are different seasons in the economy. This also has an influence on the stock markets – depending on the season, different asset classes such as equities, gold or bonds make sense. The good news for investors is that you don’t necessarily have to worry about the seasons; you can simply leave it to the experts.
US elections: are the billions of investments in green technologies at risk?
Two years ago, the USA initiated its energy transition with the Inflation Reduction Act. This was followed by billions in subsidies and investments in renewable energies. What will happen to the Act if Donald Trump makes a comeback to the White House? Is the “Green Rush” in danger of coming to an end?
Autumn on the stock markets will be anything but boring
Election campaign, interest rate turnaround, sluggish growth in Europe – there should be no sign of autumn fatigue on the stock markets. What will the coming (and certainly exciting) weeks bring for the markets and how can investors prepare for them?
Best of Charts: The road (in)to the White House
Three weeks before election day, the race for the White House is wide open: While Kamala Harris is ahead in the nationwide polls, Donald Trump is currently likely to be ahead in the crucial “swing states”. In any case, the economic situation and mood in the USA are likely to play an important role in the race for the presidency.
Who’s afraid of Donald Trump?
Election Day in the US is getting closer and closer: Who is afraid of a Donald Trump presidency again? How might the stock markets react to the election result? A high-level panel discussed this at this year’s Erste.Investment.Forum.
Mobility of the future: is the solution electric?
The European automotive industry is undergoing a transformation on the one hand, and is in crisis on the other. Both consumers and carmakers in Europe seem to be struggling with the question of the future of mobility. We therefore take a fact-based look at the direction in which the (car) journey could go.
Strong US labor market report: just an outlier?
In September, the US labor market performed surprisingly well, with significantly more new jobs created than expected. This has pushed back concerns about an impending recession, which is positive for the financial markets. Was the strong labor market report just an outlier, or is the US Federal Reserve perhaps on the right track to achieving the hoped-for “soft landing”?
Tense situation in the Middle East: Will oil prices rise again?
Oil prices have fallen significantly in the year to date, which also had a noticeable dampening effect on inflation. However, this could change with the further escalation in the Middle East. Following the Iranian missile attack on Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced retaliation.
Emerging markets bonds and sustainability: How do these two go together?
Lower interest rates in the USA mean that investments in emerging markets are becoming more attractive. The ERSTE RESPONSIBLE BOND EM LOCAL fund, which received the Austrian Ecolabel in August, could also benefit from this.
Is the AI Rally Nearing its End?
Following this week’s interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, shares related to artificial intelligence (AI) applications are once again in the spotlight. Investors are hoping that AI will have a positive impact on the business figures of the key players. With the ERSTE STOCK TECHNO fund, you can invest in the most important companies in future technologies.
Interest rate cuts at the door
After the rapid and sharp interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, the pendulum is now swinging in the opposite direction. After the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates for the first time this Wednesday, thus initiating a new cycle of interest rate cuts. What does all this mean for the economy and what conclusions can be drawn from it for investments?
Risk of recession in Europe? Labor market data under the microscope
In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about the so-called Sahm Rule – a usually quite reliable recession indicator in the US that was triggered in August for the first time since the coronavirus crisis. There is no corresponding indicator for Europe so far, which raises the question: What is the risk of recession with regard to the European labor market?
Eastern Europe: Economies expected to outperform Euro Area
Weakening growth in the eurozone has been an issue on the markets for some time now. In the Central and Eastern European countries, however, this is largely a non-issue. According to forecasts, the region is also likely to grow faster than the eurozone this year. Private consumption in particular has recently proved to be a growth driver. However, the tense situation in German industry is causing concern.
The Sahm Rule: What is behind the recession indicator?
The Sahm Rule, an important recession indicator in the US, was triggered at the beginning of August – causing uncertainty on the markets. We explain what is behind the indicator and why everything could be different this time.
Japan: Back to Normality
The Japanese stock market quickly recovered from the slide at the beginning of the month. However, attention remains focused on the Japanese central bank after it announced that it would hold off on further interest rate hikes for the time being. However, the Bank of Japan’s direction of travel seems clear: away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years.
Shift in risks
Both the markets and central banks are pointing to a shift in economic risks from inflation towards growth. The focus is currently on the US labor market.
Economic outlook: soft landing with risks attached
On the stock markets, the focus is shifting back to the downside risks. Nevertheless, there are still hopes that inflation will gradually fall and that there will be no recession. But how realistic are the hopes for this “soft landing” of the economy and how can investors position themselves in the current environment?
Netflix – the movie script of a success story
Everyone knows Netflix these days. The company has developed from a DVD rental service into a globally renowned streaming service. The company’s history is also an example of the important role the high-yield market can play in corporate bonds for young and innovative companies.
US tech stocks: Mixed feelings after earnings figures
The shares of the major US technology companies, which had performed very well for a long time, have also fallen recently. The latest half-year figures left the market with mixed feelings: although the figures were largely as expected, there were hardly any increases in profit expectations. Nevertheless, the outlook remains positive, which for fund manager Bernhard Ruttenstorfer has several reasons.
Losses on the stock markets: an overview of the reasons and consequences
There was little to cheer about on the stock markets at the start of the week: there were significant price losses in both Europe and the USA and the Japanese Nikkei-225 recorded one of the biggest daily losses in its history. What were the reasons for Monday’s sharp sell-off, what impact could the latest events have on the markets and what will happen with the increasingly weak economy?
Will the gold rally continue?
The price of gold has recently climbed from one high to the next. The rally seems almost puzzling due to a number of negative factors in the first half of the year. However, two reasons in particular provided plenty of tailwind. Can the rally go even further?
The new age of protectionism
The path towards a clearly fragmented global economy is continuing. Recently, the increase in tariffs on Chinese electric cars in the USA and the European Union has been particularly noticeable. What impact is the rise of protectionism having on the global economy?
After Biden’s withdrawal: What plans does Kamala Harris have for the economy?
The withdrawal of incumbent US President Joe Biden from the presidential race is bringing new momentum to the election campaign. Kamala Harris, currently Vice President under Biden, is now seen as the likely Democratic candidate. What policies could Harris stand for and what plans could she have for the US economy?
Microfinance: A journey through emerging Kenya
Kenya is one of the largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the most heavily weighted country on the African continent in the ERSTE RESPONSIBLE MICROFINANCE fund. Fund manager Martin Cech therefore recently visited the country and a number of companies and microcredit borrowers.
News from the world of active ownership: the Voting & Engagement Report 2023 is here!
The Voting & Engagement Report 2023 provides interesting insights into our voting behavior and our corporate dialogues over the past year. In terms of engagement in particular, there are some new companies with which we are actively engaging to promote greater sustainability.
Biodiversity: Engagement for our nature
Around 8.7 million different species live on Earth – and they all provide important “ecosystem services”. This is precisely why the protection of biodiversity is essential. In the area of engagement, this year we are focusing on the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and are making contact with one of the world’s largest corporations in this sector.
The wolf and the eight little goats: a climate-saving reinterpretation
The basis for a sustainable transformation is solid structures at the management level of companies – this also applies to the oil and gas industry. However, the most recent example of a prevented shareholder proposal shows that there is still a lot of room for improvement in this area too.
How do climate leaders find their way into our fixed-income portfolios?
Sustainability factors are actively integrated into the investment process in our bond portfolios. This ensures that climate risks are minimized and climate opportunities are actively seized in our corporate bond funds. Fund manager Matthias Hauser explains exactly how this works.
Integrated equity research, or: what is this “ESG” thing in my portfolio all about?
How are sustainability factors integrated into the equity analysis and what aspects does a fund manager look at in the companies? Our Austrian equity fund manager Bernhard Haas explains this using an example company.
Engagement and voting – worth our while?
Dialogue with management and the active exercise of voting rights are intended to encourage companies to operate in a more environmentally friendly and socially responsible manner – engagement & voting is the keyword. But what are the benefits of these measures? An overview of scientific studies on this topic provides interesting results.
Interview: Minimizing climate risks effectively
Companies have to deal intensively with the risks and opportunities that the climate crisis brings for their business model. These factors therefore also play a major role in our investment process. Stefanie Schock, Senior Research Analyst in our Responsible Investments team, explains how this works for the ERSTE WWF STOCK ENVIRONMENT equity fund.
Annual General Meetings (AGMs) 2024: dispute about shareholder rights
We also supported numerous shareholder motions during this year’s Annual General Meeting season. However, there were also occasional disagreements regarding motions and fundamental shareholder rights.
Soft landing beats political uncertainty
With the surprising fall in inflation in the US, the scenario of a “soft landing” has become more likely. Meanwhile, the shocking attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the weekend will likely have an impact on the current election campaign.
Market commentary: What will the second half of 2024 bring?
The second half of 2024 has already kicked off on the financial markets – but what can investors expect from it? After expectations of interest rate cuts in the US were pushed back further and further in the first half of the year, the scope for the US Federal Reserve could increase again in the remainder of the year. The main focus is likely to be on upcoming political decisions – which could also lead to greater fluctuations.
France and UK face economic policy decisions after elections
The recent elections in France and the UK have brought about a realignment of the political balance of power in both countries and thus also a new start for economic policy in the two major economies. What lies ahead for the two countries?
Signs of a slowdown: more scope for central banks?
Economic and political uncertainty is increasing. Nevertheless, inflation is falling in the USA and the eurozone. This increases the scope for central banks to react to a slowdown in economic growth by lowering key interest rates.
Market update: Economists see Germany economy regaining momentum
In football, things have been going well for the European Championship host country Germany recently with its place in the round of 16, but the economy has been in the doldrums in recent quarters. According to leading economists, this could now change. Positive signals from industry and private consumption indicate that the German economy is regaining momentum.
Nationalist forces strengthened in the EU: what could be the consequences?
In the EU parliamentary elections, right-wing parties made significant gains in some major countries. In France, early elections are now on the cards following President Macron’s defeat. What possible effects could a shift to the right have in the EU?
Cleantech stocks: low valuations as opportunity?
Shares from the environmental sector have recently been less in the market’s favor. However, the expansion of renewable energies is continuing at a rapid pace and the AI boom could significantly boost demand for green electricity. Given the good growth prospects and the cheap valuation level, green stocks could currently be worth a look. Alexander Weiss, co-fund manager of the environmental equity funds ERSTE WWF STOCK ENVIRONEMNT and ERSTE GREEN INVEST, explains the background in an interview.
Europe’s Economy Faces Major Challenges After Parliament Elections
The European People’s Party (EPP) remained the strongest group in the EU Parliament in last Sunday’s EU elections. Right-wing populist parties made significant gains in many of the 27 EU member states. What impact will the election result have?
ECB interest rate policy: First rate cut, and then?
The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate tomorrow for the first time since the interest rate turnaround in 2022. But what comes next? Will the first cut herald a series of interest rate cuts or will the monetary guardians remain cautious? Chief economist Gerhard Winzer takes a look at the ECB’s possible future interest rate policy.
ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX: the most important questions and answers
Taking advantage of short- and medium-term opportunities on the markets while at the same time focusing on long-term future trends – the new mixed fund ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX makes this possible. We have summarized the most important questions and answers on the launch of the new fund.
China hopes to extend its export boom with continued investments
Thanks to booming exports, the Chinese economy started the year with surprisingly strong growth. As growth has now lost some of its momentum, the aim is to keep the export boom going with new investments. However, this could have a negative impact on the trade dispute with the US and the EU.
International Monetary Fund/World Bank Group Spring Meetings 2024
At this year’s spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the focus was on the increasingly unlikely recession in the USA as well as the future monetary policy and the political situation. Fund manager Tolgahan Memİşoğlu reports on his impressions.
Short-term opportunities or long-term trends – why not both?
Investing in the major trends of the future while taking advantage of short-term market opportunities – the new mixed fund ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX makes this possible. Alexander Lechner, Head of Multi Asset Management, explains the concept behind the fund in an interview.
Investment strategy: What happened to the recession?
The topic of an impending recession has recently become quieter again – especially in the USA. A look at a few indicators helps to assess whether the spectre of recession has actually been banished (at least for the time being).
The miracle forest and why we need to protect it
The forest ecosystem is not only an important carbon store, but also a habitat for a variety of plants and creatures. In this interview, Robert Pröll, farmer, national park ranger, and speaker at this year’s sustainability conference, explains why we need to protect the “miracle of the forest” more than ever in the fight against the climate crisis.
20th Anniversary of the 2004 EU Enlargement: The Success Story Continues
The EU is celebrating a political and economic success story with the 20th anniversary of the EU’s eastward enlargement on 1 May. The countries that joined at that time and those that followed have caught up massively in economic terms. The signs continue to point to solid growth in the region.