The elections are over. The next President of France will be Emmanuel Macron. This strengthens the camp of the liberal EU supporters. What does this result mean for the capital markets?
ARTICLES IN THE TOPIC “Markets”
ECB takes another tiny step
Economic growth in the Eurozone has embarked on a clear upward trend. At the same time, the fear of falling wages and prices has disappeared for now. The worries over a possible break-up of the European Union have also eased. Against this backdrop, the ECB President Draghi issued a slightly more optimistic growth forecast yet again on 27 April at the press conference of the European Central Bank. This is another tiny step indicating a possible reduction of the monetary support in the medium term.
What the Turkish referendum means for the capital markets
A “Yes” to Erdogan’s planned constitutional amendment in Turkey would constitute a double-edged sword for investors: the planned presidential system could mean a short-term relief for the markets and for the economy. However, in the long run, this scenario harbours big risks. That being said, a “No” would not help investors either.
Reflation trade comes to an end
The markets were consolidating in March. The global equity index, the spreads for credit risk, and the yields of risk-free government bonds have been going sideways. Before that, the risky asset classes had recorded remarkable price increases, while risk-free bonds had incurred losses. Has the so-called reflation trade, i.e. the positioning towards rising nominal economic […]
Czech National Bank removes currency floor
Author: Anton HauserSenior Fundmanager Emerging Market Bonds Three and a half years after introduction, the Czech National Bank decided today to remove its 27 CZK/EUR currency floor. Many investors were expecting this decision. Indeed, this trade is currently one of the most popular ones among investors. As expected, the Czech koruna appreciated slightly against […]
A masterpiece
The US central bank Fed increased the Fed funds rate last Wednesday. The risky asset markets reacted to the move with an increase. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated. How can that be explained?
Fragile bull market
It is as difficult to remain invested in a bull market as it is to leave a bear market. After all, investors are risk-averse. Taking into account the four most important categories for the assessment of the attractiveness of asset classes – valuation, liquidity, positioning, and growth – one would conclude that the most important driving factor for the markets builds on the last one.
High yields and a potential turnaround make LATAM bonds an interesting investment
Autor: Christian Gaier, Head of Fixed Income Rates, Sovereigns & FX, Erste AM I would like to share my impressions from my latest investor conference in London that I attended on 16th January 2017. The conference was organized by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), a leading global financial group with a strong franchise in 35 […]
Higher growth vs. increased political uncertainty
The first weeks of the new year have already picked up from where the trends that started in 2016 and the hypotheses for 2017 left off: higher growth, normalisation of inflation, increased uncertainty with regard to the effects of Trumponomics, and a gradual end of the loose monetary policy.
Macro: 10 theses for 2017
What are the topics that will be relevant this year? In commemoration of the fifth centenary of Martin Luther posting his 95 propositions, we, too, want to suggest ten theses for 2017.