We have seen a number of trend reversals this year, one of them being the end of the negative growth surprises. The forecast of economic growth and inflation are currently not subject to downwards revisions any longer.
THIS AUTHOR'S POSTS
Italy – the third domino
On Sunday 4 December Italy will be holding a referendum on an amendment to the constitution. This is relevant particularly because in case of a rejection, the political uncertainty would increase.
Trumponomics
The market participants are still focused on the implications of Donald Trump’s victory at the US presidential elections. In simple terms, “Trumponomics” are a combination of expansive fiscal policies and restrictive trade policy. An increased budget deficit is supposed to support economic growth, while the curbing of free trade aims at job protection.
The impact of Donald Trump’s election victory
After a long campaign, the results of the US presidential election are in: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In addition, the Republican Party has retained its majority in Congress. What are the repercussions for the global economy and the financial markets?
Clinton versus Trump
The rising relevance of the anti-establishment movement across many parts of the world has instilled a particular sense of urgency and importance into the upcoming presidential elections in the USA on 8 November.
High uncertainty, low volatility
Uncertainty is high, while volatility is low. How to resolve the contradiction?
Postponed is not abandoned
Bond yields were up last Friday, whereas equities recorded losses. Signs that the bull market with low volatility, which started after the Brexit vote, is drawing to an end are becoming more plentiful.
Increasing volatility expected
In the weeks following the Brexit referendum, the prices of many asset classes were rising amid mild fluctuations. However, an increasing number of clues suggest higher fluctuation for the coming months.
Brazil: Olympic Games of politico-economic indicators
In Brazil, or more specifically, in Rio de Janeiro, the 31st Summer Olympics will be held in August of 2016. After Mexico City (1968), Moscow (1980), Seoul (1988), and Beijing (2008), this is only the fifth outing in the city of an emerging economy. The holding of the Games reflects the increasing economic importance of […]
Brexit-Referendum – a Non-Event?
Was the decision by the UK to leave the EU a non-event? Globally speaking, share prices have increased, the spreads for default risk have narrowed on many markets, and the UK central bank, i.e. the Bank of England, did not cut its key-lending rate. Good growth rate The economic indicators continue to suggest real economic […]