The global economy is caught between a strong recovery and inflation fears. Despite low risk premiums, Erste AM Chief Economist Gerhard Winzer continues to see opportunities for equities as long as bond yields rise less than corporate earnings growth rates. Read more in his blog analysis.
In recent days, equities and other risky asset classes have come under pressure despite the fact that in the year to date the optimism about an economic recovery has been on the rise. Is that a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”? Had the good news already been priced into the market? Or is there another mechanism that could be driving the future development?
In view of the still rampant Corona pandemic, the EU Commission has recently lowered its growth forecasts for 2021. With the delays in some EU countries’ vaccination programmes, the lockdowns could also drag on, delaying the expected economic recovery, the Commission argues.
The interest rates seem to have been going one way for years – down. With the exception of a few corrections, the taboo has been broken for many years that bond yields should have to be positive all the time.
At the beginning of September, the FED announced a significant change in their policy: They officially announced the implementation of “average inflation targeting”. This allows to have a higher inflation rate for a period of time instead of being closely held to the target inflation rate of 2%.
Why did the FED announce this shift in its policy? Is inflation returning in the agenda? In this article, we intend to show the policy requirements for high(er) inflation.
Many asset classes recorded significant gains. At the same time, the falling tendency of numerous economic indicators has suggested a slowdown in GDP growth. How do these two go together?
The European media has been paying attention to unorthodox economic policies in Hungary for years, supporting or opposing them depending where they stand on the political spectrum. At the same time Hungarian decision makers always stress they represent normality. Nowadays the question is: should we finally expect both monetary and fiscal policy normalization in the following years?
Read our recent blog post on the ten theses for financial market development in 2019. Is fear of a recession exaggerated?
The positive reaction to the agreement between the USA and China on not further escalating the trade conflict for the time being was only short-lived. Risky assets remain under pressure. A number of factors continue to burden the markets.
The engine of the economy in Slovakia is running on a good momentum. In recent years it has been going through a cyclical upswing. Take a look at the drivers, but also consider potential threats going forward.
